Lanceljx
08-20 15:43

I would buy SK Hynix on weakness, rather than step away from memory. My preference is SK Hynix > Samsung > avoiding the sector.


The key distinction is that SK Hynix's payout is not simply management saying, "we have run out of attractive investments". It is explicitly buying and cancelling 40 trillion won of shares, while raising its target to return more than 50% of 2025-27 cumulative FCF. That is a direct reduction in share count and a strong signal management believes the stock is undervalued. 


Samsung is potentially even more interesting as a value + dividend play, but the >100 trillion won figure remains a media report awaiting board approval. The reported plan would allocate 50% of FCF to shareholders, with dividends expected to dominate. 


I don't see the payouts as an obvious late-cycle signal yet. The more important question is whether AI memory FCF remains structurally elevated. If HBM demand continues growing, returning excess cash while maintaining capacity investment is actually sensible capital allocation.


My approach:


SK Hynix: best for capital appreciation + buyback-driven EPS uplift.

Samsung: better if you want dividends, diversification and a cheaper-looking value profile.

Step away: only if you believe AI memory pricing and HBM demand are about to roll over.


For the next 2-3 years, I would own SK Hynix rather than flee memory. The buyback makes the investment case stronger, not weaker. 

# SK Hynix Buyback Lands — Will Samsung Match With Half Its Free Cash Flow?

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  • zaza10
    ·08-20 16:12
    That 40T won buyback talks louder than any sell-side note. If HBM demand stays tight, SK Hynix still looks like the cleaner capital return story.
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