Humanoid Robotics: Public Options Compared – And a Case for Component Suppliers
Humanoids are coming and there are three public options now.
We have Unitree (688836) now public at $53B.
-> 2025 revenue ~$250M (humanoids were half of that).
-> 2025 humanoid shipments ~ 5,500.
-> ASPs ~$24k
-> Production already demonstrated in the multi-thousand unit annual output range.
Nomura has already initiated a 25x (yes...25x) 2027 P/S multiple for Unitree.
We have $Churchill Capital Corp XI(CCXI)$ (Agility) expected to go public at $2.5B pre-money.
-> Trailing annual revenue ~$37M
-> Cash burn ~$100M
-> 150 units but 65,000 real world hours
-> ~$125k BOM with a path to $30k long0term
-> $300M multi-year contracted order.
And we have Optimus / $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ at $1.3T (Optimus obviously a small pie in the current Tesla business).
-> Targeted 5,000 units in 2025 but missed badly.
-> Build cost ~$50-100k with long term targets ~$30k.
-> Actual output remains low as of H2 2026.
Best option for now imo is to see what happens to the whole robotics sector after one of the most heavily oversubscribed IPOs.
Remember what happened to the whole space theme after $SpaceX(SPCX)$ IPO'd.
Humanoids are the future...but that doesn't mean buying a 200x (trailing) sales hardware play is the right move today.
Also remember owning the humanoid trend doesn't have to mean owning the pure humanoids right away.
-> $Regal Rexnord(RRX)$: Actuators & bearings
-> $RBC Bearings(RBC)$: Actuators & bearings
-> $Vishay Precision(VPG)$: Torque sensors
-> $Ouster Inc.(OUST)$: Sensing & perception
-> $Indie Semiconductor Inc.(INDI)$: Vision processing
-> Harmonic Drive (6324): Precision strain-wave gear reducers
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- 飘雪111·08-20 19:11玉树和机器人不沾边就是玩具公司LikeReport