To The Moon

1.Live Review Introduction

Review Live >>

Tiger Brokers livestream hosted by Esther, featuring Dr. Franklin Wu, Quantitative Researcher at a financial institution in Shanghai. Franklin holds a PhD from the University of Chicago, with a background combining physics, quantitative research and trading strategy development. This session opened his framework for AI and semiconductor investing — starting with the macro backdrop that sets the "risk temperature" for tech stocks.

Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of the guest speaker and do not represent the official views of Tiger Brokers or its affiliates. This content is strictly for education and discussion purposes and does not constitute financial advice.

Catch up on the full recap series

• Live Recap 2: Why Semiconductors Are Still the "Hard Currency" of the AI Trade

• Live Recap 3: Turning a Bullish View Into a Trade — Technicals, QQQ and SPCX Case Studies

• Live Recap 4: Leveraged ETFs, the September Playbook, and Q&A Highlights

2.Check the Macro Temperature Before Trading AI Stories

Franklin opened by warning against trading AI/semiconductor names on company stories alone. His framework runs inflation and oil → long-term yields → VIX/risk appetite → earnings/guidance → semiconductor prices, with the common mistake being to focus only on "AI is strong" while ignoring how rates and volatility shift the market's tolerance for risk.

3.Warsh's Jackson Hole Message: Inflation First

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks framed the 2% PCE target as fixed and financial conditions as not broadly restrictive — raising the bar for staying on hold. Market-implied September hike probability jumped to roughly 56% from about 35% (Franklin cited a similar jump, from ~40% to ~60%, on CME FedWatch). His takeaway: rate-sensitive tech now faces a higher discount-rate bar.

4.The "Bessent Put": A Cushion, Not a Superhero

With 30-year yields near multi-year highs, the Treasury expanded long-bond buybacks (per-operation cap raised to about $4bn) — what markets have nicknamed the "Bessent Put." Franklin was clear this can slow a yield spike and give tech valuations room to breathe, but doesn't erase the underlying debt, deficit and supply pressures.

5.Why Long Yields Pressure High-Growth Valuations

Around August 25, the 10-year sat near 4.64–4.68% and the 30-year near 5.17–5.21%. Franklin's simple version: when safe bonds pay more, investors demand a cheaper entry price for stocks whose profits are still years away — higher yields compress P/E and P/S multiples, and high-beta names tend to sell off first.

6.Pre-Show Market Dashboard

Franklin's five-indicator dashboard going into the show: VIX 15.45 (low, but "low volatility ≠ no risk"), 10-year yields ~4.64–4.68%, Fed funds target 3.50–3.75%, QQQ 710.72 consolidating near highs, and SOXL 115.67 as the high-beta amplifier to watch.

Closing Takeaway

The Fed isn't panicking, but it isn't easing quickly either — and the Treasury's bond-market intervention is a cushion, not a cure. For tech and semiconductor valuations, the direction of long yields remains the first filter before anything company-specific matters.

7.Risk Reminder

Macro and rate-driven volatility can move bond and equity markets sharply in either direction. Viewers without sufficient foundational knowledge are advised to complete education modules before initiating live positions.

8.Post-Event Resources

Follow Dr. Franklin Wu's recap and future updates on @TBlive and @老实人谈美股 on Tiger Community. The full livestream replay is available on the Tiger Trade app.