I want clarity on one thing: does Warsh see the surge in long-term yields as monetary tightening that reduces the need for another immediate hike, or as a separate fiscal/term-premium problem the Fed should largely look through?
My base case is an October hold, which already appears well priced. The bigger market mover would be his December signal. Recent Fed commentary suggests policymakers can afford to wait, even though another hike this year remains on the table.
For equities, especially long-duration tech, I would rather hear Warsh acknowledge that financial conditions have tightened and that policy remains data-dependent. If he stresses persistent inflation while dismissing the rise in long yields, markets could start pricing a more aggressive path.
The key question is no longer simply “hike or hold in October?” It is whether 5%+ long yields are doing part of the Fed’s job already.
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