To The Moon

’d vote $JPM (JPMorgan Chase). 📈 It has a strong diversified business across consumer banking, investment banking and markets, so I’m watching whether earnings and guidance can hold up despite higher Treasury yields.

Wall Street is heading into earnings season with a difficult question: What happens if companies deliver strong results, but investors have already priced in even better news? Last week’s rally pushed the Nasdaq and S&P 500 close to record levels. Now, the focus shifts from market optimism to actual business performance. I’m watching three signals this week. 🏦 1. Banks: Look Beyond the Headline Numbers Results from $JPM, $WFC and other major banks will offer clues about the health of the US economy. The important details aren’t just earnings per share. I’m watching credit card delinquencies, loan-loss provisions and management’s comments on consumer spending. If profits are strong but loan defaults start rising, the market may question how sustainable those earnings really are. 🧠 2. TS

As the Q3 earnings season kicks off, bank performance hinges on the tug-of-war between strong Net Interest Income (NII) and accelerating deposit costs. While high benchmark rates bolster yields, balance sheet strength dictates who truly outperforms Among major Wall Street institutions, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) stands out as the ultimate winner. JPM’s unrivaled capital fortress, disciplined risk management, and dominant deposit franchise allow it to navigate credit normalization far better than peers. Unlike competitors constrained by rising funding expenses, JPM continues capturing market share across retail and wealth management. Furthermore, its resilient corporate and investment banking pipeline provides a strong earnings engine during macro shifts While Bank of America faces softer fee ou

JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo report on Oct. 13, followed by Morgan Stanley and Bank of America on Oct. 14. Higher rates can be good for banks — They can lift loan yields and support net interest income. But they also raise funding costs, slow borrowing and put more pressure on consumers and businesses. Earning Highlight First, net interest income. Can higher loan yields still outweigh rising deposit and funding costs? Second, investment banking and trading.M&A and IPO activity has been improving, but the recovery is uneven. JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley have sounded relatively upbeat, while Bank of America has warned of softer investment-banking fees. Third, credit quality.Investors will be watching credit-card delinquencies, loan-loss provisions and consumer loan g

The market has been rallying, but this week could reveal whether the optimism is justified. The S&P 500 closed at 7,811.54 on Friday, while the Nasdaq finished at 27,366.17. Now investors face a busy week of bank earnings, inflation data and one major test for the AI trade: $TSM. 🏦 1. Banks: Is the US Economy Still Holding Up? $JPM and $WFC report on Tuesday, with other major banks also taking the spotlight. Investors will be watching: • Net interest income and lending trends • Investment banking and trading revenue • Consumer credit quality and signs of financial stress • Management’s outlook for the economy Higher interest rates can support lending margins, but they can also make borrowing more expensive and put pressure on customers. Strong profits alone may not be enough if bank ex

I’m watching TSMC more closely. Bank earnings will tell us about credit quality, consumer health and whether higher rates are actually translating into stronger profitability. But TSMC has wider implications for the market’s biggest theme: AI. With Q3 revenue already at a record and profit expected to hit another record, the bigger question is guidance. If TSMC confirms strong AI demand, tight advanced-node/CoWoS capacity and robust capex, it supports the broader AI infrastructure trade from Nvidia to equipment suppliers. A weak TSMC outlook could therefore hit the Nasdaq harder than one disappointing bank report. That said, CPI may ultimately overshadow both because another inflation surprise could move yields and valuations across the entire market. My ranking this week: CPI > TSMC &g

Last speech before blackout, what would Warsh say to move the market? In this article we would like to share and discuss how Warsh's pre-blackout signals re-anchor rate expectations, alter asset allocations across tech and fixed income, and impact macro positioning. We will cover the following areas: Core Speech Analysis Scenario Framework & Chart Sector Reality Checks Strategic Positioning Framework 1. Anatomy of the Pre-Blackout Signal The 10-day blackout window enforced prior to FOMC interest rate decisions restricts Federal Reserve officials and key advisors from offering public commentary. Consequently, the final speeches delivered immediately preceding this window function as critical policy anchors. When a voice like Kevin Warsh speaks—combining institutional credibility with a

. 🐯 Last Speech Before the Fed Blackout: What Do I Want to Hear From Warsh? Three Investments I Would Consider for Diversification 🌎 1. The Market Is Waiting for More Than an Interest-Rate Decision As we approach Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s scheduled appearance in Bangkok on October 16, I believe investors should pay attention to more than just whether the Fed will hike, hold or eventually cut interest rates. What I really want to hear from Warsh is a clear explanation of the relationship between inflation, long-term Treasury yields, government debt and the direction of monetary policy. According to the Federal Reserve’s calendar, Warsh is scheduled to participate in a fireside chat with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva in Bangkok. With the next FOMC meeting scheduled for

a and b. post election mid terms is always up up up. just be patient and buy the dip asap.

🌟🌟🌟Navigating the markets right now feels like playing chess on a trampoline.  Between the ongoing Iran war disrupting global oil supply lines, a nerve wrecking Federal Reserve policy path and the looming US mid term elections on November 3rd, Wall Street is caught in a massive psychological tug of war. The Iran war has completely rewritten the macro playbook, throwing Brent Crude past USD 120 a barrel earlier this year, squeezing consumer margins and sending the 10 year Treasury yield screaming to a 24 year high. The US Mid term elections are injecting maximum anxiety into the tech sector, with voters hyper focused on inflation.  Politicians on both sides are campaigning to regulate energy hungry AI data center buildouts. Historically, markets get incredibly choppy right before

I want clarity on one thing: does Warsh see the surge in long-term yields as monetary tightening that reduces the need for another immediate hike, or as a separate fiscal/term-premium problem the Fed should largely look through? My base case is an October hold, which already appears well priced. The bigger market mover would be his December signal. Recent Fed commentary suggests policymakers can afford to wait, even though another hike this year remains on the table. For equities, especially long-duration tech, I would rather hear Warsh acknowledge that financial conditions have tightened and that policy remains data-dependent. If he stresses persistent inflation while dismissing the rise in long yields, markets could start pricing a more aggressive path. The key question is no longer simp

The indices: the selling stayed inside technology, so the Nasdaq fell while the Dow closed higher The three indices split on Thursday: the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ fell 1.25 per cent to 27,193.34, the steepest of them; the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ fell 0.47 per cent to 7,765.36; and the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ rose 0.10 per cent to 51,231.60. The 10-year Treasury yield came back from 5.28 per cent to 5.23 per cent on the same day. Rates fell and equities fell with them, which is not the chain of cause and effect of recent days: what was repriced was the assumption about demand along the AI chain, and the discount rate had nothing to d

The U.S. 10-year yield retreated to approximately 5.23% after strong Treasury auction demand, but remains elevated. European sovereign yields are also under pressure, particularly in fiscally vulnerable markets. The Fed minutes showed a more nuanced split than the unanimous September vote implied. Some policymakers viewed the 25 bp hike as insurance against energy-driven inflation; others believed stronger underlying demand required tighter policy. Many argued a higher policy path could be prudent if inflation proves persistent. The Federal Reserve remains concerned about inflation following September’s rate increase. This means strong corporate earnings may not translate into higher share prices if discount rates remain elevated. This is particularly important for AI, utilities and REITs.

I think the long end can stay elevated, or even move higher, even if the Fed stands pat. The key issue is that the 10Y/30Y are increasingly being driven by more than the expected Fed path. Fiscal deficits, heavy Treasury issuance and a rising term premium can keep pushing long-term yields higher without another rate hike. A Fed pause may relieve some pressure at the front end, but it does not automatically solve the supply-demand imbalance further out the curve. If investors demand more compensation to hold duration, the curve could steepen through higher long-end yields. For equities, that matters because a 5%+ 10Y keeps the discount-rate hurdle high, particularly for expensive growth stocks. My base case: Fed pause ≠ long-end relief. I would watch Treasury auctions, term premium and infl

Find out more here:Tiger BOSS Debit Card Epic Rewards Refer More Earn More!

The latest Fed minutes sent a mixed message. All 19 policymakers backed September’s 25bp rate hike, taking the federal-funds rate to 3.75%–4.00%. Most officials still think another hike will probably be appropriate before the end of 2026 — but they left the timing open.  Meanwhile, something else is happening that could matter even more for stocks. Long-term Treasury yields are surging. The 10-year yield touched around 5.36% and the 30-year reached roughly 5.73% on Wednesday — both their highest levels since 2002.  So here’s the question: What if the Fed eventually stops hiking, but long-term yields keep climbing? That’s possible because the Fed doesn’t directly control the entire Treasury curve. Long-term yields reflect a combination of: 🔹 Inflation expectations 🔹 Economic growth 🔹 Trea

Option A as that's the heavy thing on my portfolio.

Option Aad that's the heavy thing on my portfolio.

The indices: all three fell back from record closes, and the Dow lost 0.66 per cent The three indices moved back from the previous day's record closes on Wednesday: the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ Average fell 0.66 per cent to 51,179.90, the largest decline; the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ fell 0.22 per cent to 7,801.77; and the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Composite fell 0.22 per cent to 27,538.69. The pressure came from the bond market: the 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.36 per cent at its intraday peak and closed at 5.28 per cent, while the 30-year touched 5.73 per cent and closed at 5.66 per cent. Minutes from the Federal Reserve's Septemb

The biggest mistake investors can make in the 2026 midterms is betting on red or blue instead of betting on policy. History is encouraging: the S&P 500 has averaged roughly 6.6% in Q4 of midterm years, and has posted positive returns in the 12 months after every midterm since 1950. But 2026 is different. With the 10-year Treasury near 5.3%, elevated valuations and massive AI capex, rates and earnings may matter more than election headlines. My focus would be on AI infrastructure, power and defense. A divided Congress could actually be constructive by limiting major policy shocks, while a Republican sweep could favor deregulation, energy and AI infrastructure. The real trade isn't Republicans vs Democrats. It's policy uncertainty vs. policy clarity. For me: A — AI & Technology, but

Wall Street is heading into earnings season with a difficult question: What happens if companies deliver strong results, but investors have already priced in even better news? Last week’s rally pushed the Nasdaq and S&P 500 close to record levels. Now, the focus shifts from market optimism to actual business performance. I’m watching three signals this week. 🏦 1. Banks: Look Beyond the Headline Numbers Results from $JPM, $WFC and other major banks will offer clues about the health of the US economy. The important details aren’t just earnings per share. I’m watching credit card delinquencies, loan-loss provisions and management’s comments on consumer spending. If profits are strong but loan defaults start rising, the market may question how sustainable those earnings really are. 🧠 2. TS

The market has been rallying, but this week could reveal whether the optimism is justified. The S&P 500 closed at 7,811.54 on Friday, while the Nasdaq finished at 27,366.17. Now investors face a busy week of bank earnings, inflation data and one major test for the AI trade: $TSM. 🏦 1. Banks: Is the US Economy Still Holding Up? $JPM and $WFC report on Tuesday, with other major banks also taking the spotlight. Investors will be watching: • Net interest income and lending trends • Investment banking and trading revenue • Consumer credit quality and signs of financial stress • Management’s outlook for the economy Higher interest rates can support lending margins, but they can also make borrowing more expensive and put pressure on customers. Strong profits alone may not be enough if bank ex

JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo report on Oct. 13, followed by Morgan Stanley and Bank of America on Oct. 14. Higher rates can be good for banks — They can lift loan yields and support net interest income. But they also raise funding costs, slow borrowing and put more pressure on consumers and businesses. Earning Highlight First, net interest income. Can higher loan yields still outweigh rising deposit and funding costs? Second, investment banking and trading.M&A and IPO activity has been improving, but the recovery is uneven. JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley have sounded relatively upbeat, while Bank of America has warned of softer investment-banking fees. Third, credit quality.Investors will be watching credit-card delinquencies, loan-loss provisions and consumer loan g

Last speech before blackout, what would Warsh say to move the market? In this article we would like to share and discuss how Warsh's pre-blackout signals re-anchor rate expectations, alter asset allocations across tech and fixed income, and impact macro positioning. We will cover the following areas: Core Speech Analysis Scenario Framework & Chart Sector Reality Checks Strategic Positioning Framework 1. Anatomy of the Pre-Blackout Signal The 10-day blackout window enforced prior to FOMC interest rate decisions restricts Federal Reserve officials and key advisors from offering public commentary. Consequently, the final speeches delivered immediately preceding this window function as critical policy anchors. When a voice like Kevin Warsh speaks—combining institutional credibility with a

. 🐯 Last Speech Before the Fed Blackout: What Do I Want to Hear From Warsh? Three Investments I Would Consider for Diversification 🌎 1. The Market Is Waiting for More Than an Interest-Rate Decision As we approach Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s scheduled appearance in Bangkok on October 16, I believe investors should pay attention to more than just whether the Fed will hike, hold or eventually cut interest rates. What I really want to hear from Warsh is a clear explanation of the relationship between inflation, long-term Treasury yields, government debt and the direction of monetary policy. According to the Federal Reserve’s calendar, Warsh is scheduled to participate in a fireside chat with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva in Bangkok. With the next FOMC meeting scheduled for

As the Q3 earnings season kicks off, bank performance hinges on the tug-of-war between strong Net Interest Income (NII) and accelerating deposit costs. While high benchmark rates bolster yields, balance sheet strength dictates who truly outperforms Among major Wall Street institutions, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) stands out as the ultimate winner. JPM’s unrivaled capital fortress, disciplined risk management, and dominant deposit franchise allow it to navigate credit normalization far better than peers. Unlike competitors constrained by rising funding expenses, JPM continues capturing market share across retail and wealth management. Furthermore, its resilient corporate and investment banking pipeline provides a strong earnings engine during macro shifts While Bank of America faces softer fee ou

’d vote $JPM (JPMorgan Chase). 📈 It has a strong diversified business across consumer banking, investment banking and markets, so I’m watching whether earnings and guidance can hold up despite higher Treasury yields.

🌟🌟🌟Navigating the markets right now feels like playing chess on a trampoline.  Between the ongoing Iran war disrupting global oil supply lines, a nerve wrecking Federal Reserve policy path and the looming US mid term elections on November 3rd, Wall Street is caught in a massive psychological tug of war. The Iran war has completely rewritten the macro playbook, throwing Brent Crude past USD 120 a barrel earlier this year, squeezing consumer margins and sending the 10 year Treasury yield screaming to a 24 year high. The US Mid term elections are injecting maximum anxiety into the tech sector, with voters hyper focused on inflation.  Politicians on both sides are campaigning to regulate energy hungry AI data center buildouts. Historically, markets get incredibly choppy right before

I’m watching TSMC more closely. Bank earnings will tell us about credit quality, consumer health and whether higher rates are actually translating into stronger profitability. But TSMC has wider implications for the market’s biggest theme: AI. With Q3 revenue already at a record and profit expected to hit another record, the bigger question is guidance. If TSMC confirms strong AI demand, tight advanced-node/CoWoS capacity and robust capex, it supports the broader AI infrastructure trade from Nvidia to equipment suppliers. A weak TSMC outlook could therefore hit the Nasdaq harder than one disappointing bank report. That said, CPI may ultimately overshadow both because another inflation surprise could move yields and valuations across the entire market. My ranking this week: CPI > TSMC &g

a and b. post election mid terms is always up up up. just be patient and buy the dip asap.

The indices: the selling stayed inside technology, so the Nasdaq fell while the Dow closed higher The three indices split on Thursday: the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ fell 1.25 per cent to 27,193.34, the steepest of them; the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ fell 0.47 per cent to 7,765.36; and the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ rose 0.10 per cent to 51,231.60. The 10-year Treasury yield came back from 5.28 per cent to 5.23 per cent on the same day. Rates fell and equities fell with them, which is not the chain of cause and effect of recent days: what was repriced was the assumption about demand along the AI chain, and the discount rate had nothing to d

I want clarity on one thing: does Warsh see the surge in long-term yields as monetary tightening that reduces the need for another immediate hike, or as a separate fiscal/term-premium problem the Fed should largely look through? My base case is an October hold, which already appears well priced. The bigger market mover would be his December signal. Recent Fed commentary suggests policymakers can afford to wait, even though another hike this year remains on the table. For equities, especially long-duration tech, I would rather hear Warsh acknowledge that financial conditions have tightened and that policy remains data-dependent. If he stresses persistent inflation while dismissing the rise in long yields, markets could start pricing a more aggressive path. The key question is no longer simp

The indices: all three fell back from record closes, and the Dow lost 0.66 per cent The three indices moved back from the previous day's record closes on Wednesday: the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ Average fell 0.66 per cent to 51,179.90, the largest decline; the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ fell 0.22 per cent to 7,801.77; and the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Composite fell 0.22 per cent to 27,538.69. The pressure came from the bond market: the 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.36 per cent at its intraday peak and closed at 5.28 per cent, while the 30-year touched 5.73 per cent and closed at 5.66 per cent. Minutes from the Federal Reserve's Septemb

Hey Tigers 🐯 — the U.S. midterm elections are approaching, and this time investors may want to pay closer attention. On November 3, 2026, Americans will vote for all 435 House seats and roughly one-third of the Senate. The results will determine control of Congress for the final two years of President Donald Trump’s current term. For Wall Street, the important question isn't simply which party wins. It is: What changes in Washington — and which stocks could benefit or face new risks? 🏛️ Why Does the Midterm Election Matter to Markets? Congress influences taxes, government spending, energy, healthcare, financial regulation, trade and technology policy. A change in congressional control could therefore change expectations for corporate costs, revenues and ultimately profits. The easiest way

The indices: the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq both set record closes and the 10-year came back to 5.27 per cent The three indices pushed higher again on Tuesday: the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 0.58 per cent to 7,818.93, closing above 7,800 for the first time and at a record close, having reached 7,844.52 at its intraday peak; the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Composite rose 0.45 per cent to 27,599.89, also a record close; and the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$Average added 0.49 per cent to 51,521.28. The 10-year Treasury yield came back to 5.27 per cent from 5.31 per cent the day before. Last week's pattern, where weak data lifted equities, has

Storage Stocks performance !! 💾 AI Needs More Than GPUs — The Storage Supercycle Is Becoming the Next Big Battleground The AI trade is no longer only about NVDA, GPUs and compute. Every model trained, every inference request, every AI agent and every autonomous system creates data — and that data has to be stored, retained and accessed. That puts Western Digital (WDC), Seagate (STX) and SanDisk (SNDK) directly into the AI infrastructure story. WDC & STX: Recent Fall — Warning or Opportunity? WDC and STX were hit hard after Toshiba disclosed plans to roughly double data-center HDD capacity by FY2027, triggering fears that the current HDD shortage could turn into excess supply and weaken pricing power. The pressure returned this week as reports emerged that Seagate and Toshiba are compet

The latest Fed minutes sent a mixed message. All 19 policymakers backed September’s 25bp rate hike, taking the federal-funds rate to 3.75%–4.00%. Most officials still think another hike will probably be appropriate before the end of 2026 — but they left the timing open.  Meanwhile, something else is happening that could matter even more for stocks. Long-term Treasury yields are surging. The 10-year yield touched around 5.36% and the 30-year reached roughly 5.73% on Wednesday — both their highest levels since 2002.  So here’s the question: What if the Fed eventually stops hiking, but long-term yields keep climbing? That’s possible because the Fed doesn’t directly control the entire Treasury curve. Long-term yields reflect a combination of: 🔹 Inflation expectations 🔹 Economic growth 🔹 Trea

The U.S. 10-year yield retreated to approximately 5.23% after strong Treasury auction demand, but remains elevated. European sovereign yields are also under pressure, particularly in fiscally vulnerable markets. The Fed minutes showed a more nuanced split than the unanimous September vote implied. Some policymakers viewed the 25 bp hike as insurance against energy-driven inflation; others believed stronger underlying demand required tighter policy. Many argued a higher policy path could be prudent if inflation proves persistent. The Federal Reserve remains concerned about inflation following September’s rate increase. This means strong corporate earnings may not translate into higher share prices if discount rates remain elevated. This is particularly important for AI, utilities and REITs.

I think the long end can stay elevated, or even move higher, even if the Fed stands pat. The key issue is that the 10Y/30Y are increasingly being driven by more than the expected Fed path. Fiscal deficits, heavy Treasury issuance and a rising term premium can keep pushing long-term yields higher without another rate hike. A Fed pause may relieve some pressure at the front end, but it does not automatically solve the supply-demand imbalance further out the curve. If investors demand more compensation to hold duration, the curve could steepen through higher long-end yields. For equities, that matters because a 5%+ 10Y keeps the discount-rate hurdle high, particularly for expensive growth stocks. My base case: Fed pause ≠ long-end relief. I would watch Treasury auctions, term premium and infl

The indices: the Nasdaq set a record close, the Dow did not follow The three indices pulled apart on Monday: the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Composite rose 1.05 per cent to 27,477.31, a record close for it, having reached 27,544.06 at its intraday peak; the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 0.66 per cent to 7,773.95, still shy of its own record close by less than 0.6 per cent; and the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ Industrial Average added just 0.18 per cent to 51,267.90. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.31 per cent, three basis points above Friday. Put those three together and what made the high was not the breadth of the market but a handfu