I’m watching TSMC more closely. Bank earnings will tell us about credit quality, consumer health and whether higher rates are actually translating into stronger profitability. But TSMC has wider implications for the market’s biggest theme: AI.
With Q3 revenue already at a record and profit expected to hit another record, the bigger question is guidance. If TSMC confirms strong AI demand, tight advanced-node/CoWoS capacity and robust capex, it supports the broader AI infrastructure trade from Nvidia to equipment suppliers.
A weak TSMC outlook could therefore hit the Nasdaq harder than one disappointing bank report. That said, CPI may ultimately overshadow both because another inflation surprise could move yields and valuations across the entire market.
My ranking this week: CPI > TSMC > bank earnings.
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