To The Moon

$Micron Technology(MU)$   $Apple(AAPL)$   Micron's quarter reads like a commodity super-cycle in motion. GAAP gross margin jumped to 84.6%, from 37.7% a year earlier, and Cloud Memory revenue hit $13.77 billion as hyperscalers scrambled for HBM4.  CEO Sanjay Mehrotra told investors the results "reflect the strategic value of memory in the AI era" and pointed to multi-year Strategic Customer Agreements as evidence of locked-in pricing. Apple's story is steadier and more defensive. iPhone brought in $56.994 billion, Services set a fresh record at $30.976 billion, and Tim Cook cited "extraordinary demand for the iPhone 17 lineup." But

AI Spending Isn't Peaking. Its Growth Is. Yesterday we looked at AMD into its print. Here is the spending wave it rides on. $201.9B. That is what Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta spent in cash on capex in one quarter, Q3 2026. The usual question is whether that number has peaked. I think it is the wrong question. Spending and the growth of spending peak at different times, and markets have tended to care about the second one. TWO PEAKS, NOT ONE A boom has a level (dollars spent) and a growth rate (how fast those dollars rise). The growth rate can top out years before the level does. Goldman Sachs (24 Sep) noted that consensus has the big US cloud spenders at about $800B of capex in 2026 and about $1.1T in 2027, with growth roughly halving each year. UBS lifted its own forecasts in late

$Amazon.com(AMZN)$  $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$  $Microsoft(MSFT)$   For two years, Wall Street rewarded one sentence: “WE ARE SPENDING MORE ON AI.” More GPUs. More data centres. More HBM. More networking. More power. More capex. Investors cheered because spending meant demand. This week, something changed. Amazon's AWS grew: 39% its fastest growth in nearly five years. Yet Amazon fell sharply after earnings. Why? Because trailing 12-month free cash flow went from: +$14.8B to -$42.4B. Think about that. AWS accelerated dramatically. Operating cash flow actu

Cash is now the AI scorecard, not spending. QQQ fell 1.42% and S&P 500 0.30% Thursday because investors are punishing cash burn: Amazon missed with $201.9B revenue and $1.89 EPS, and despite AWS growing 39% to $48.1B, its TTM free cash flow dropped 35% to $42.2B, causing another 7.30% drop in after hours trading after the close; Microsoft slipped only 0.16% because its AI capex is more clearly monetized via Azure and Copilot subscriptions; Meta gained 1.96% because it uses AI to boost ad returns without heavy cloud capex. For me, Meta will prove cash returns first in the short-term, Microsoft has the best mid-term path to turn AI spend into recurring cash, while Amazon has the hardest job proving its massive capex cycle actually expands margins.

Borrow more to go for Google or maybe a small part goes to ram or ssd related. Always keep borrowing and use debt if u can manage it to invest. Cash will only evaporate.

According to CME FedWatch, markets are pricing in a 92.8% chance that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at 3.75%–4.00%. A CNBC survey tells a similar story: 93% of respondents expect a pause this week, but 76% believe another rate hike is coming in December.

The $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ fell 1.42 per cent on Thursday and the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ declined 0.30 per cent. $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ closed down 4.25 per cent and fell about another 7 per cent after its results. Microsoft slipped just 0.16 per cent, while Meta gained 1.96 per cent. Companies making large AI investments were no longer trading as one group. Amazon reported third-quarter revenue of $201.9 billion, up 12 per cent, and earnings of $1.89 a share. AWS revenue grew 39 per cent to $46.0 billion, while operating income rose 55 per cent to $17.8 billion. The issue was cash generation: trailing 12-month free cash flow s

For the past two years, the AI investment story has largely been about growth. Technology companies have been racing to build data centres, secure advanced chips, expand cloud capacity and develop increasingly powerful AI models. Every major spending announcement has reinforced the belief that AI could become one of the biggest sources of future corporate earnings. But the market is beginning to look beyond the size of these investments. As earnings reports reveal higher capital expenditure and pressure on free cash flow, investors are facing a more important question: Can the companies spending billions on AI eventually generate enough additional cash to justify the cost? This is where the distinction between revenue growth, accounting profit and free cash flow becomes particularly import

For much of the past two years, the market has rewarded Big Tech companies for investing aggressively in artificial intelligence. Building data centres, securing advanced chips and expanding computing capacity were seen as necessary steps to capture the next major technology opportunity. But the market is starting to change its expectations. Investors are no longer satisfied with hearing how much companies plan to spend on AI or how quickly their cloud businesses are growing. They want evidence that these investments can generate enough additional revenue, profit and free cash flow to justify the enormous costs. Thursday’s market reaction suggests that this shift is becoming increasingly important. The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.42%, while the S&P 500 declined 0.30%. Technology shares faced ren

Microsoft gets my vote. Azure is already translating AI demand into strong cloud growth while Microsoft continues generating substantial cash flow, despite heavy infrastructure spending. That makes its AI monetisation path look more mature than peers still seeing capex overwhelm free cash flow. Meta is a close second because AI is improving its core advertising engine, but its capex is also rising rapidly. Amazon’s 39% AWS growth is impressive, yet its TTM free cash flow has swung negative as AI infrastructure spending surged. Alphabet’s Cloud growth is exceptional, but negative quarterly free cash flow makes the near-term return question harder. My ranking: MSFT > META > AMZN > GOOGL for proving that AI capex can translate into sustainable cash returns first.

Stop the war and the inflation rate will stop. 

The Fed held rates again and honestly, I’m more interested in how individual tech stocks are reacting than the rate decision itself 😂 AMD gained over 3% while Nvidia actually dropped, even though both are riding the same AI trend. That tells me investors are starting to become a lot more selective instead of just buying anything related to AI. I still like big tech long term, especially companies like Google that have strong cash flow and multiple businesses generating revenue. But I do think valuations are getting harder to justify for some companies. Spending billions on AI infrastructure is one thing, actually turning that spending into profits is another. For me, the biggest thing to watch over the next few quarters is whether earnings can catch up with all the expectations already pri

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This is always the most question that everyone wants to know but man in the street won't have access to the latest economic data.

Yes very too this is how the hold is for it to be

Hopefully,  rate hike pause and the possibility of a rate cut

Definitely, seasonally it is bullish and big tech aka MAG7 will post great earnings and bring the market to the next level. We have seen this narrative play over and over again. We got Amazon coming up soon which should be great

The Fed Held Rates, but Tech Stocks Still Have Something to Prove A rate pause should have been good news for growth stocks. Yet Wednesday’s market reaction was surprisingly restrained. The S&P 500 rose 0.28%, while the Nasdaq-100 gained around 0.55%. Underneath those modest moves, performance was mixed. AMD climbed 3.24%, while Nvidia slipped 1.17%. Then came the earnings reactions: Microsoft rose after reporting strong results, while Alphabet sold off sharply. To me, this is what makes the current market interesting. Investors are not treating technology stocks as one big trade anymore. They are becoming more selective about which companies deserve premium valuations and which ones need to prove that their AI investments will pay off. The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate at 3.

The Federal Reserve held rates as technology shares edged higher The $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ gained 0.60 per cent on Wednesday, while the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 0.28 per cent. The Federal Reserve voted 10–2 to keep its target range at 3.75 per cent to 4.00 per cent. The two dissenters preferred a 25-basis-point increase. The statement described economic activity as strong and inflation as still elevated, offering no clear signal of imminent easing. The indices moved little during the regular session. The more important change came after the close. Microsoft and Alphabet both reported strong cloud growth, but Microsoft gained about 4 per cent in extended trading while Alphabet f

The Fed held interest rates at 3.75%–4.00% on Wednesday, but the decision did little to settle the debate over technology valuations. The $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ)$ rose 0.60%, while the $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ gained 0.28%. Beneath the modest index gains, individual stocks moved in different directions. $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ climbed 3.24%, while $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ fell 1.17%. That divergence highlights an important shift in the market: exposure to AI and technology alone may no longer be enough to justify a premium valuation. 1. The biggest risk may be the price investors pay, not the growth itself Technology companies can continue growing revenue and earnings while their share prices struggle. Why? Because stock prices reflect expectations about future performance, not just c

AI Spending Isn't Peaking. Its Growth Is. Yesterday we looked at AMD into its print. Here is the spending wave it rides on. $201.9B. That is what Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta spent in cash on capex in one quarter, Q3 2026. The usual question is whether that number has peaked. I think it is the wrong question. Spending and the growth of spending peak at different times, and markets have tended to care about the second one. TWO PEAKS, NOT ONE A boom has a level (dollars spent) and a growth rate (how fast those dollars rise). The growth rate can top out years before the level does. Goldman Sachs (24 Sep) noted that consensus has the big US cloud spenders at about $800B of capex in 2026 and about $1.1T in 2027, with growth roughly halving each year. UBS lifted its own forecasts in late

$Amazon.com(AMZN)$  $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$  $Microsoft(MSFT)$   For two years, Wall Street rewarded one sentence: “WE ARE SPENDING MORE ON AI.” More GPUs. More data centres. More HBM. More networking. More power. More capex. Investors cheered because spending meant demand. This week, something changed. Amazon's AWS grew: 39% its fastest growth in nearly five years. Yet Amazon fell sharply after earnings. Why? Because trailing 12-month free cash flow went from: +$14.8B to -$42.4B. Think about that. AWS accelerated dramatically. Operating cash flow actu

$Micron Technology(MU)$   $Apple(AAPL)$   Micron's quarter reads like a commodity super-cycle in motion. GAAP gross margin jumped to 84.6%, from 37.7% a year earlier, and Cloud Memory revenue hit $13.77 billion as hyperscalers scrambled for HBM4.  CEO Sanjay Mehrotra told investors the results "reflect the strategic value of memory in the AI era" and pointed to multi-year Strategic Customer Agreements as evidence of locked-in pricing. Apple's story is steadier and more defensive. iPhone brought in $56.994 billion, Services set a fresh record at $30.976 billion, and Tim Cook cited "extraordinary demand for the iPhone 17 lineup." But

The $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ fell 1.42 per cent on Thursday and the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ declined 0.30 per cent. $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ closed down 4.25 per cent and fell about another 7 per cent after its results. Microsoft slipped just 0.16 per cent, while Meta gained 1.96 per cent. Companies making large AI investments were no longer trading as one group. Amazon reported third-quarter revenue of $201.9 billion, up 12 per cent, and earnings of $1.89 a share. AWS revenue grew 39 per cent to $46.0 billion, while operating income rose 55 per cent to $17.8 billion. The issue was cash generation: trailing 12-month free cash flow s

For the past two years, the AI investment story has largely been about growth. Technology companies have been racing to build data centres, secure advanced chips, expand cloud capacity and develop increasingly powerful AI models. Every major spending announcement has reinforced the belief that AI could become one of the biggest sources of future corporate earnings. But the market is beginning to look beyond the size of these investments. As earnings reports reveal higher capital expenditure and pressure on free cash flow, investors are facing a more important question: Can the companies spending billions on AI eventually generate enough additional cash to justify the cost? This is where the distinction between revenue growth, accounting profit and free cash flow becomes particularly import

For much of the past two years, the market has rewarded Big Tech companies for investing aggressively in artificial intelligence. Building data centres, securing advanced chips and expanding computing capacity were seen as necessary steps to capture the next major technology opportunity. But the market is starting to change its expectations. Investors are no longer satisfied with hearing how much companies plan to spend on AI or how quickly their cloud businesses are growing. They want evidence that these investments can generate enough additional revenue, profit and free cash flow to justify the enormous costs. Thursday’s market reaction suggests that this shift is becoming increasingly important. The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.42%, while the S&P 500 declined 0.30%. Technology shares faced ren

The tech rally is under immediate pressure and looking shaky. While the Federal Reserve held the benchmark interest rate steady at 3.75% to 4.00%, US stock futures tumbled in early Thursday trading. In this article, we would like to look at the analysis of US Federal Reserve policy, Big Tech valuation realities, and Middle East energy risks. The article would covers the following: The "Hawkish Hold" Anatomy: Decoupling the Fed’s interest rate pause from rising terminal rate expectations. Micro Earnings vs. Macro Realities: Amazon and Intel earnings previews in the context of cloud growth, AI capex ROI, and semiconductor dynamics. Geopolitical Oil Shocks & Energy Transmission: Middle East tensions, oil price spikes, and secondary inflation risks. CME FedWatch Probabilities & Monetar

The Federal Reserve held rates as technology shares edged higher The $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ gained 0.60 per cent on Wednesday, while the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 0.28 per cent. The Federal Reserve voted 10–2 to keep its target range at 3.75 per cent to 4.00 per cent. The two dissenters preferred a 25-basis-point increase. The statement described economic activity as strong and inflation as still elevated, offering no clear signal of imminent easing. The indices moved little during the regular session. The more important change came after the close. Microsoft and Alphabet both reported strong cloud growth, but Microsoft gained about 4 per cent in extended trading while Alphabet f

The Fed Held Rates, but Tech Stocks Still Have Something to Prove A rate pause should have been good news for growth stocks. Yet Wednesday’s market reaction was surprisingly restrained. The S&P 500 rose 0.28%, while the Nasdaq-100 gained around 0.55%. Underneath those modest moves, performance was mixed. AMD climbed 3.24%, while Nvidia slipped 1.17%. Then came the earnings reactions: Microsoft rose after reporting strong results, while Alphabet sold off sharply. To me, this is what makes the current market interesting. Investors are not treating technology stocks as one big trade anymore. They are becoming more selective about which companies deserve premium valuations and which ones need to prove that their AI investments will pay off. The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate at 3.

The Fed held interest rates at 3.75%–4.00% on Wednesday, but the decision did little to settle the debate over technology valuations. The $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ)$ rose 0.60%, while the $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ gained 0.28%. Beneath the modest index gains, individual stocks moved in different directions. $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ climbed 3.24%, while $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ fell 1.17%. That divergence highlights an important shift in the market: exposure to AI and technology alone may no longer be enough to justify a premium valuation. 1. The biggest risk may be the price investors pay, not the growth itself Technology companies can continue growing revenue and earnings while their share prices struggle. Why? Because stock prices reflect expectations about future performance, not just c

The Fed kept interest rates at 3.75%–4.00% on Wednesday, but the market reaction suggests investors are looking beyond the headline. The Nasdaq-100 ETF $Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ)$ gained 0.60%, while the S&P 500 rose 0.28%. Within technology, however, $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ climbed 3.24% while $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ fell 1.17%. This divergence is worth watching. Investors are not necessarily abandoning technology stocks, but they may be becoming more selective about which companies can justify their valuations. 1. A rate pause does not guarantee a technology rally The Fed’s decision to hold rates steady provides some stability, but it does not mean borrowing costs will fall soon. Inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, and two officials dissented in favour of a rate increase. The cent

Cash is now the AI scorecard, not spending. QQQ fell 1.42% and S&P 500 0.30% Thursday because investors are punishing cash burn: Amazon missed with $201.9B revenue and $1.89 EPS, and despite AWS growing 39% to $48.1B, its TTM free cash flow dropped 35% to $42.2B, causing another 7.30% drop in after hours trading after the close; Microsoft slipped only 0.16% because its AI capex is more clearly monetized via Azure and Copilot subscriptions; Meta gained 1.96% because it uses AI to boost ad returns without heavy cloud capex. For me, Meta will prove cash returns first in the short-term, Microsoft has the best mid-term path to turn AI spend into recurring cash, while Amazon has the hardest job proving its massive capex cycle actually expands margins.

QQQ rose as SoFi and Nebius gained more than 11 per cent The $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$, which tracks the Nasdaq 100, gained 1.27 per cent on Tuesday, while the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 0.60 per cent. $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ jumped 13.42 per cent, $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ gained 11.22 per cent and $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ rose 7.94 per cent. $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$, $Broadcom(AVGO)$ and

The market is heading into another important test. On Tuesday, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 1.27%, while the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) rose 0.56% ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision. Semiconductor stocks led the advance, with AMD jumping 5.45%, Broadcom gaining 4.00%, and Nvidia climbing 0.90%. The rally suggests that investors are still willing to buy technology stocks despite concerns about elevated valuations and the direction of interest rates. However, one strong session does not necessarily mean the market has cleared its next hurdle. The key question is whether the Fed can provide enough reassurance on inflation and future policy to support another leg higher in technology stocks. 1. A rate hold may not be enough Markets largely expect the Fed to leave interest rate

$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$   $NVIDIA(NVDA)$   $Lumentum(LITE)$   Buying the names the market is selling even on good news. So from that perspective, we like the semicap guys still, we like (ASML). I mean, their last print they guided for Q4 sales to increase 22 to 30%. And they're expecting that their fiscal twenty-six EUV sales are gonna be 65, targeting 85 and 27, and still have this potential for 110 EUVs in 2028. And so that's what underpins their fiscal 26 sales outlook, which is somewhere between 44 and 45 billion for 36% year over year growth. And that'

Core CPI: 2.6%. Core PCE, the Fed's own gauge: 3.0%. Core CPI over the last three months, annualised: 3.4%. Three "core" numbers, one rate decision. The gap between them is the story. It is not the headline number minus the funds rate. The Fed decides today (usually 2 PM ET, which is 1 AM Thursday in Bangkok, 2 AM in Singapore). I am not predicting the decision. I want to show how I read the debate. The method works on any inflation scare. 1) Which "real rate"? The funds midpoint is 3.875%. Subtract headline CPI (3.7%) and you get 0.2. Subtract core CPI (2.6%) and you get 1.3. That is just arithmetic. It hides a choice. The choice is the gauge. The Fed targets PCE, not CPI. Normally core PCE runs below core CPI. From 1990 to 2019 it did in 86% of months, by a median of 0.47 points (FRED da

Borrow more to go for Google or maybe a small part goes to ram or ssd related. Always keep borrowing and use debt if u can manage it to invest. Cash will only evaporate.

According to CME FedWatch, markets are pricing in a 92.8% chance that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at 3.75%–4.00%. A CNBC survey tells a similar story: 93% of respondents expect a pause this week, but 76% believe another rate hike is coming in December.

Microsoft gets my vote. Azure is already translating AI demand into strong cloud growth while Microsoft continues generating substantial cash flow, despite heavy infrastructure spending. That makes its AI monetisation path look more mature than peers still seeing capex overwhelm free cash flow. Meta is a close second because AI is improving its core advertising engine, but its capex is also rising rapidly. Amazon’s 39% AWS growth is impressive, yet its TTM free cash flow has swung negative as AI infrastructure spending surged. Alphabet’s Cloud growth is exceptional, but negative quarterly free cash flow makes the near-term return question harder. My ranking: MSFT > META > AMZN > GOOGL for proving that AI capex can translate into sustainable cash returns first.

The Fed held rates again and honestly, I’m more interested in how individual tech stocks are reacting than the rate decision itself 😂 AMD gained over 3% while Nvidia actually dropped, even though both are riding the same AI trend. That tells me investors are starting to become a lot more selective instead of just buying anything related to AI. I still like big tech long term, especially companies like Google that have strong cash flow and multiple businesses generating revenue. But I do think valuations are getting harder to justify for some companies. Spending billions on AI infrastructure is one thing, actually turning that spending into profits is another. For me, the biggest thing to watch over the next few quarters is whether earnings can catch up with all the expectations already pri