I would wait for Warsh’s tone, while keeping a core long-tech position rather than rotating aggressively into rate-sensitive assets yet. The key signal is that Treasury’s intervention only produced a temporary rally. The long end quickly returned to concerns over deficits, inflation and term premium. The 30-year yield has been around multi-decade highs, while the 10-year has remained near 4.7%.  My positioning: Core: Stay long quality tech. AI earnings and structural capex remain powerful, although high long-term yields are the main valuation risk. Nvidia earnings on 26 August could provide another catalyst.  Do not chase rate-sensitive assets yet. Banks, REITs, small caps and long-duration bonds could rally sharply if Warsh signals easier policy, but they could suffer if he emph

21 Aug 2026 — Daily Market Update U.S. stocks fell as higher Treasury yields, rising oil prices and concerns over consumer spending weighed on sentiment. At the same time, the latest developments from Alibaba, Broadcom, Microsoft and Micron show that AI investment is still accelerating — but investors are increasingly focused on whether these massive investments can generate sufficient returns and how they will be financed. S&P 500: -0.87% to 7,641.16 Dow Jones: -1.32% to 52,759.21 Nasdaq: -1.00% to 26,067.17 U.S. 2Y Treasury: roughly flat at 4.19% U.S. 10Y Treasury: +4 bps to around 4.70% U.S. 30Y Treasury: around 5.24% ⸻ 1. Alibaba: AI monetisation is improving, but cash flow remains under pressure Alibaba’s quarterly revenue rose about 9% YoY, slightly above expectations, while AI a

$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$Moderna and Merck’s personalized cancer therapy met its key goals in a Phase 3 melanoma trial, sending MRNA sharply higher and lifting the broader biotech sector. Biotech stocks have finally found a major catalyst. Moderna (MRNA) surged roughly 177%, while Merck (MRK) gained about 12.6%. BioNTech (BNTX), which is also developing mRNA-based cancer treatments, climbed nearly 22%. Biotech ETFs XBI and IBB rose about 5.9% and 6.6%, respectively. The catalyst was positive Phase 3 data for intismeran autogene, also known as V940 or mRNA-4157. The personalized mRNA therapy is being jointly developed by Moderna and Merck and tested in combination with Merck’s blockbuster immunotherapy drug Keytruda. The combination met

Berkshire ending 14 straight quarters of net selling is definitely worth watching. It could be an early sign that the most cautious money in the market is starting to regain confidence. I don’t see it as an all-out bullish signal, but capital is clearly rotating back into AI, semiconductors and infrastructure. CoreWeave, SMCI and Lumentum also show that investors are increasingly looking beyond quarterly revenue and focusing on backlogs, long-term contracts and future cash flows. The big question now isn’t whether money is coming back — it’s which companies can actually turn that capital spending into sustainable profits. Valuations still matter, especially after the strong AI rally we’ve already seen. For me, this is a reason to stay invested but remain selective, rather than chase every

The US Treasury announced that it will double long-duration bond buybacks to at least US$4 billion per operation from September through early November. The move followed the 30-year Treasury yield reaching nearly 5.34%, its highest in almost two decades. The result: 10-year yield → ~4.65% 30-year yield → ~5.20% S&P 500 → +0.21% Nasdaq → +0.16% Dow → +0.22%. That is meaningful relief, but I would not interpret it as the end of the bond problem. The underlying issues—US fiscal deficits, inflation and enormous AI infrastructure financing requirements—remain unresolved. 🔴 Fed — more hawkish than the market hoped The July Fed minutes were important. They showed that “many” policymakers believe higher rates may ultimately be required if inflation does not continue falling, while three policy

I have been watching the Treasury market closely these past few weeks, and the latest move feels like a quiet admission that things are getting uncomfortable at the long end of the curve. Treasury just doubled the size of its liquidity-support buybacks in the 10-to-20-year and 20-to-30-year sectors to at least $4 billion per operation. This comes right after the 30-year yield pushed toward levels we haven’t seen in nearly two decades and the 10-year settled in the mid-4.6% range. On paper, these buybacks are still framed as liquidity tools helping dealers offload older, less-traded bonds. In practice, the timing and the sudden upsizing tell a different story. When yields keep rising even on the day of a scheduled buyback, and Treasury responds by expanding the program off-calendar, it look

I would wait for Warsh’s Jackson Hole tone before rotating aggressively back into tech. The Treasury intervention is meaningful, but I would not interpret it as a durable reversal in long-term yields. The 30-year yield had reached about 5.34%, its highest since 2007, before Treasury announced it would at least double long-duration buybacks to $4bn per operation.  The bigger issue is the Fed. July's minutes were more hawkish than the headline "hold" suggests: three officials wanted a 25bp hike, several saw inflation as broad-based, and there was no meaningful discussion supporting a cut. Markets are even assigning better-than-even odds to a hike by October or December.  So my positioning would be: Tech: cautiously add, not chase. Lower yields provide exactly the relief that high-d

Hello. The long end, which had been pressing on everything for three days, got held down on Wednesday. The 30-year Treasury yield first set a 19-year high intraday, then turned back after the US Treasury said it would at least double the size of its liquidity support buybacks in 10- to 30-year securities. The 30-year fell as much as 9 basis points to 5.19 per cent, closed near 5.20 per cent, and is down to 5.18 per cent today. But technology did not come back. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ closed up 0.21 per cent and $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ 0.22 per cent, and most of that came from healthcare while tech kept being sold. One headline put it plainly: the tech sell-off resumed an

20 Aug 2026 — US Market Daily US stocks ended a three-day losing streak as the Treasury’s surprise move to expand long-term bond buybacks helped push longer-dated yields lower. Moderna’s successful Phase 3 cancer vaccine trial also boosted healthcare stocks. However, hawkish Fed minutes and continued US-Iran tensions kept risk appetite in check. S&P 500: +0.21% to 7,707.98 Dow Jones: +0.22% to 53,463.05 Nasdaq: +0.16% to 26,331.09 US 2Y Treasury: +1 bp to ~4.18% US 10Y Treasury: -6 bps to ~4.65% ⸻ 1. Iran tensions remain high, but Trump leaves the door open for talks * Trump said the US may resume negotiations with Iran “at some point,” reversing his tougher stance just a day earlier. * Washington is still waiting for clearer signs that Iran is willing to compromise before formally res

Disclaimer: Nothing I say or post should be considered financial advice. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$  $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  $iShares MSCI Japan ETF(EWJ)$   With key indices such as QQQ and SPY extending losses for second day straight, do the whales think that AI related tech stocks are finally overextended in their valuations, which is reflected in the pullback? This bearish signal is definitely backed with volume. However looking at past few months, bears usually would not last long. So position yourself properly, have your stop losses intact to ride this chop

Hello. Three companies reported on Tuesday. Put the three side by side and no order makes sense. $Fabrinet(FN)$ beat on revenue by about 3.1 per cent and on earnings per share by about 7.5 per cent, both records — and closed down 19.38 per cent at US$482.59. $Home Depot(HD)$ beat on both lines, posted net sales of about US$47.9 billion and its best comparable sales since 2022, and reaffirmed full-year guidance — and closed down 0.12 per cent. $BIDU-SW(09888)$ missed on both revenue and profit, with earnings per share about 22.7 per cent short — and closed down 12.73 per cent. Full marks fell 19 per cent, a pass fell 0.

Introduction & Market Backdrop: Bonds Pressuring Growth On Wednesday, August 19, 2026, global financial markets find themselves at a critical juncture. Equity indexes across North America, Europe, and Asia have experienced sharp selling pressure driven by a powerful global bond market sell-off. Long-term sovereign yields have climbed to multi-year highs, with the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield advancing to 4.71% and the 30-year Treasury yield rising to 5.28%. $US Treasury 10 Year Note ETF(UTEN)$ This upward repricing in risk-free rates has transmitted directly into technology and growth equities. The $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), which tracks the Nasdaq-100 index, has declined by 1

Major Wall Street institutions like $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ JPMorgan and $Goldman Sachs(GS)$ Goldman Sachs (along with $Morgan Stanley(MS)$ Morgan Stanley) have lifted their targets for the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ S&P 500 toward the 8,000 milestone. Yet, retail investors are grappling with recent index pullbacks and localized volatility. Wall Street's 8,000 Call: Top-Down Bullishness vs. Short-Term Reality Wall Street equity strategists set index targets using macro fundamentals—primarily corporate earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (P/E) valuation multiples. The move toward an 8,000 S&P 500 target rests on thre

So was today another God-sent or the start of the meltdown some was calling for?  What do you guys think? Shall we ear-mark today and all the comments and revisit next week? Possibly mid-week?  Why mid-week? Because the was the time when stocks rallied to another record high after a brutal sell-off the week before.

[Miser][Smile]Fellow Tigers, Q2 13F filings are fully disclosed, and this quarter is packed with signals—Buffett's third massive $Alphabet(GOOG)$ purchase, Tepper loading up on Magnificent 7 while dumping memory stocks, and $SpaceX(SPCX)$ getting swarmed by hedge funds post-IPO. 📌 One-Sentence Summary in Adavance Q2 smart-money rebalancing theme: loading AI giants (especially Alphabet), embracing the SpaceX space narrative, taking profits in memory/semis, concentrating China ADRs into AI-core names, and quant giants vs. discretionary managers taking opposite macro views. Buffett's third Google purchase, Tepper dumping memory while buying Magnificent 7, hedge funds swarming SpaceX, Renaissance buying Meta