**The market is largely unimpressed because the doubled long-end buybacks are a modest liquidity/tactical measure that does little to address the core drivers of higher long-term yields.** On 19 August 2026, the US Treasury (under Secretary Scott Bessent) announced it would at least double the size of its liquidity-support buyback operations for 10- to 20-year and 20- to 30-year nominal Treasuries—from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. This applies from 9 September through 4 November 2026 and adds roughly $14 billion of capacity in the current quarter (on top of the previously planned total). The move followed a sharp selloff that pushed the 30-year yield to its highest level since 2007, amid fiscal concerns (public debt near/above $40 trillion), geopolitical risks, and weak

$Gold - main 2612(GCmain)$ Gold surpassing $4,500 per ounce marks a historic watershed in global capital markets. Far from a simple speculative rally or temporary flight to safety, this surge reflects a structural repricing driven by the intersection of unprecedented U.S. sovereign debt—now exceeding $40 trillion—and persistent structural fiscal deficits running between 6% and 8% of GDP. In this article, we would be sharing what our analysis that reveals that while structural deficits created the combustible background of supply inflation and mounting debt service pressures, gold at $4,500 signifies that the market is actively transitioning toward pricing full Fiscal Dominance—a macroeconomic regime where central bank monetary policy is subord

Hello. The Treasury's buyback tool was upsized again, and the bond market bought it for half a day. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said on Thursday that the size of each long-dated Treasury buyback had gone from US$2 billion to at least US$4 billion, and could rise further. The 30-year yield fell as much as 10 basis points and the dollar index weakened — and then the bond market pushed back. The reason is simple enough: buybacks deal with liquidity, while the deficit, inflation and the term premium have not moved at all. There was a new variable that day: the consumer. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed down 0.87 per cent and $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ 1.32 per cent, about 600 points — Barro

Over the past week, the core narrative shaping global asset pricing revolved around two themes. On the geopolitical front, negotiations between the United States and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz reached an impasse, with both sides engaging in heated exchanges and refusing to yield. According to Bloomberg tanker-tracking data, Middle Eastern crude oil loadings fell from 20 million barrels per day in early July to 12 million barrels per day by the end of July, with the supply disruption shifting from a “risk premium” into a “physical supply shortfall.” On the macroeconomic front, U.S. headline CPI rose 3.4% year over year in July, while core CPI increased 2.5%; month-over-month growth resumed. PPI rose 4.7% year over year, while nonfarm payroll employment unexpectedly declined by 23,000 in

Weekly Outlook Summary The central view this week is as follows: After weaker U.S. employment data, expectations for further rate hikes eased, temporarily supporting U.S. equities and risk assets. However, the rebound in oil prices, the renewed repricing of inflation, and rising Treasury yields are weakening the fundamental support for further gains in high-valuation U.S. equities. In the near term, the market may again become range-bound. The strategic focus should therefore shift from outright directional positioning toward capturing a rebound in volatility, collecting option time value, and implementing strict risk controls. Policy expectations remain the primary market driver. Following the release of the nonfarm payrolls report, market expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hik

Buy for future growth and growth 

Speaker: Ross Dong @Ross_Macro_Trading (Founder of Gongxing Academy and Partner at Morning Cloud Asset Management)Live Date: August 12, 2026 Ross Dong remains bullish on AI as a long-term technology cycle—but that did not stop his fund from cutting semiconductor and AI exposure in June. In this livestream, Ross explained the warning signals behind that decision, why he still sees selective upside in U.S. equities, and where he is gradually putting cash back to work—from hyperscalers and financials to power, energy and other less-crowded parts of the AI value chain. Want a deeper dive? We broke this session into 4 full recap articles: Live Recap 1: Why

Following the stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls data, the market’s perceived probability of Federal Reserve rate hikes has continued to decline. The market now needs the next payrolls report to establish a new set of expectations. This means that, before the next data release, sentiment is likely to remain constructive. Even without a major trend, the market is likely to stay range-bound. (Note: Chart circulating via social media, original source unknown. Used for discussion purposes only. If you own this content, please DM for proper credit or takedown.) Over the weekend, there were further developments related to the Strait of Hormuz. The market has largely abandoned expectations for meaningful progress in negotiations, and there may not be significant movement even before the mid

After the sharp pullback and subsequent rebound in the previous phase, major asset classes have returned to a relatively calm pattern. However, the fact that some assets have stalled should not be viewed as a positive signal. If they fail to extend their rebound or make new highs over the coming weeks, it may indicate that another leg lower is approaching. The first market to watch is crypto, which we have consistently treated as a leading indicator. Although its reference value has deteriorated meaningfully compared with one to two years ago, it has still shown signs of acting as an early mover in the current market cycle. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum rebounded sharply from late June, but have spent the past six weeks hovering near their lower ranges.

$Intel(INTC)$announced a $15 billion common stock offering, with underwriters holding a 30-day option for an additional $2.25 billion in shares, bringing total potential proceeds to $17.25 billion. Funds will support growth initiatives including AI computing, Physical AI, custom chips, advanced packaging and foundry services, plus capital expenditures and working capital. Shares fell ~4% on the news, a typical reaction. Stock offerings dilute existing shareholders, and with Intel in a heavy investment phase, markets naturally worry about future fundraising. However, paired with just-released Q2 results, the offering signals Intel may accelerate 14A and advanced packaging capacity buildout. CEO Pat Gelsinger previously set two condi

A sharp $300 move in gold over just three trading sessions is rarely driven by a single factor. It is typically the result of tactical market mechanics (a short squeeze/gamma squeeze) acting as the spark, while deep macroeconomic shifts provide the fuel. 1. Short Squeeze vs. New Structural Drivers Verdict: A short squeeze fuels the speed of a 3-day spike, but sustained holding above breakout levels indicates institutional re-allocation and structural buying. 2. Is GLD Still a Good Engine for Long-Term Exposure? SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$ remains the benchmark vehicle for institutional gold exposure, but whether it is the best choice depends on your investment structure. Weekly gold has broken above a multi-week congestion pattern,

Review of Last Week's Strategies and Profitability Welcome to this week's Macro Strategy Weekly. As is our tradition, let's first review the outcomes of the strategies discussed in last week's report: Macro Strategy Weekly: How to trade Fed-Week Volatility and the Crack-Spread Retreat Strategy Contributor: @程俊Dream US Equities (Nasdaq): Last week's limit orders were not filled, but we are keeping them active. We maintain limit buy orders for the Nasdaq at 26,080 and 24,720 (half position each), with a stop-loss set below 23,000, and target prices at 30,500 and 33,800. Gold: We anticipated a rebound last week but lacked an ideal entry point, so we pr

The long-awaited breakout in gold’s rebound finally arrived last week. With a 7% gain in a single week, gold quickly achieved the measured target of its daily-chart double-bottom breakout. The question now is whether the rebound can continue—and, if so, where the next major resistance levels may emerge. To answer that question, we should first compare the price action of gold futures and spot gold. After the front-month futures contract rolled over to December, the time-related premium created a spread of roughly 1.5%, or approximately $60–$70, between futures and spot prices. More importantly, futures have already broken out of the descending channel that had been in place since the beginning of the year, while spot gold has yet to make a similar breakout. In the spot market, the key resi

Hello. The biggest story last night was Nvidia out raising money: it is working with Blackstone, BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, KKR and others on a consortium to fund AI infrastructure, for as much as US$500 billion, to be spent on AI chips, power generation and data centres. $英伟达(NVDA)$ fell 2.86 per cent on the news. It didn't fall because demand is short. It fell because people have started to wonder whether Nvidia is creating that demand itself: it has signed agreements worth hundreds of billions of dollars with participants across the AI ecosystem, lifting overall demand and valuations, while those counterparties themselves depend on the AI boom staying alive. That structure has a name. Circular financing. Jensen Huang answered on