To The Moon

$SPX was rejected around 7,714 today before sliding toward 7,684, keeping the short-term structure firmly on the defensive. The key question now is whether the current move develops into a broader gap fill toward 7,610. 👀 For the bearish gap-fill thesis to remain intact, 7,760 is the level that matters most. A recovery back above 7,760 would weaken or invalidate the setup. Until then, 7,714 and 7,684 remain the next downside levels to watch as the move potentially develops over several sessions. ⚠️ Tomorrow's FOMC minutes at 2:00 PM add another layer of event risk. Volatility could increase sharply around the release, so the short-term path may remain bearish or choppy rather than develop into a clean directional move. 📊 The bigger picture is different. The medium- and long-term structure

The stock market declined today as technical conditions suggested and our levels validated. Last Saturday, the Weekly Compass presented a high-probability bearish reversal for the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ , marking the loss of 7,773 as the key trigger that would validate the thesis, a level not far from Friday’s close, and in fact, a level breached during Monday morning in market hours with no gaps or premarket surprises. Following yesterday’s decline in the SPX and $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ , I studied the semiconductor rally, highlighting the gaps on $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ , $Micron Technology(MU)$ , and bearish setups for

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ earnings remain solid, with 86% of companies beating Q2 estimates and revenue growth reaching its strongest level since 2022. But record insider selling, stretched valuations and historically high institutional equity exposure are raising a different question: how much upside is left when the people with the most information are selling and the biggest pools of capital are already heavily invested? Corporate insiders sold $77.6 billion worth of stock in the first half of 2026, the second-highest level of selling recorded in more than two decades. For every insider buying shares, eleven were selling. That is not noise. That is the people with the most information about future earnings, margins, and competitive positioning quietl

Macroeconomic data drove the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ to a brand-new historical high this week, though macro exhaustion caused a slight market decline by Friday: Inflation Data Sparks a Rally Earlier in the week, the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) figures boosted equity markets. The wholesale inflation reading (PPI) remained unchanged month-over-month, boosting optimism that the Federal Reserve will pause interest rate adjustments at its September policy meeting. This data originally catalyzed a rally on Thursday, pushing the S&P 500 to a record close near 7,800. Late-Week Pullback: A Slowing US Consumer The initial rate-pause optimism was tempered on Friday by economic data indicating that the primary engine of the

Tech stocks drove another strong session, with $SPX breaking higher while $MSFT and $AMZN showed very different technical setups. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ pushed through a major breakout level, helped by softer-than-expected inflation data and renewed strength across technology stocks. The 5-day moving average continues to support the uptrend and remains the key short-term trend guide. The oscillator is already in overbought territory, but today's candle still points to continued momentum. The main risk to watch is $VIX, which has moved slightly higher and could signal rising short-term volatility. $Microsoft(MSFT)$ is taking a more cautious path. Previous moves above the upper Bollinger Band were followed by

Tech shares and softer-than-expected inflation data fueled the stock market today. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ breached the 7,800 milestone for the first time to set a new all-time high. Last night, we studied charts for the SPX and $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2609(ESmain)$ , highlighting two key levels that would provide direction to the next move: 7,729 for the SPX: “if that level breaks, a gap fill thesis would be likely” and: 7,799 for the ES=Futures, “if that one is breached, there could be a continuation for this bull leg”. Both levels were very close to price action, in addition, today’s CDL for the SPX (7,750) kept its support condition from the opening. Using levels to validate direction is an ess

The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) calmed market anxieties regarding potential interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, with fed fund futures reducing the probability of a September rate hike down to around 40%, one of the reasons for the bullish move today. Appetite for technology and hardware infrastructure stocks saw a revival, $SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ soared +19% after reporting an EPS beat of 84% above estimates and raising its forward guidance. Cloud-computing platform $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ also leaped +19.3% following stronger-than-expected sales results. Semiconductors bounced, $Micron Technology(MU)$ leading the move with a +5% rally. On th

U.S. equity markets closed muted today, with technology shares pulling back slightly from the record highs set last week. A cautious tone has settled in ahead of crucial inflation data arriving this Wednesday. Compounding this, renewed anxiety regarding Middle East geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, along with a 5% surge in oil futures, added macroeconomic headwinds to the mix. Upcoming Economic Updates: Over the weekend, the Weekly Compass highlighted underlying caution in several technology names, including select “Magnificent Seven” stocks and semiconductors. For instance, in the Setups Blueprint, $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ appeared as bearish and fell -2.9% today. Conversely, $SpaceX(SPCX)$<

As of the end of the trading week on Friday, August 7, 2026, 88% of the companies listed in the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ have officially posted their actual earnings results for the second-quarter corporate reporting cycle. Overall, the corporate reporting cycle has exceeded Wall Street’s original expectations, driving the index to its broadest and highest profit expansion in several years considering: 86% of reporting companies have beaten their consensus Earnings Per Share (EPS) estimates. This is well above the historical 5-year average of 78% and the 10-year average of 76%. Approximately 77% of S&P 500 companies have exceeded their revenue expectations. All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 are concurrently reporting positive revenue growth for the

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ is consolidating after a strong rally, with key gap levels below acting as potential magnets. Semiconductor leaders like $Micron Technology(MU)$ and $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ remain weak, while $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ are entering a healthy consolidation phase. $SpaceX(SPCX)$ continues to show constructive price action. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Price is attempting to build a base above 765