To The Moon

The market has bounced, but the latest price action raises questions about whether buyers have enough conviction to push higher. Three key charts are flashing caution signals. 1. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ We have seen solid bounces with green candles or gap-ups. Today, we saw an indecisive candle finding rejection at the 20-day moving average. Low daily volume also suggests caution for this bounce. 2. $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ The bounce in tech was mostly driven by semiconductors. However, that red candle shows everything but conviction, not to mention the low daily volume. 3. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ The relief bounce mentioned happened as expected, now th

As mentioned in the Weekly Compass last Saturday, when social media was flooded with posts about a potential black Monday, the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and technology, mostly driven by semiconductors ( $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ ), was primed for a bounce given the technical conditions outlined in the publication. Today's move is not surprising, and we will analyze what criteria must be considered to increase the probability of continuation following the bounce. Now that the bounce has materialized, the prevailing question is: Is the bottom in? However, we should perhaps rephrase the question: Is the sector rotation over? That consideration is driven by the divergences we have witnessed over recent days, w

Hi Tigers! Four stocks and ETFs are flashing very different technical signals. $QQQ and $IWM may be setting up for relief bounces, $NOW is showing potential downside risk, while $TSM is approaching a key level that could determine whether its rebound holds. 📉 $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ — Relief Bounce or New Highs? A break below the lower Bollinger Band suggests a bounce may be near. Can it recover to all-time highs, or will the rally fade again? 🔍 $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ — A Fourth Bounce in the Making? Another lower-band breach, alongside bullish Stochastic divergence, raises the possibility of a rebound. Can it finally break the downtrend? ⚠️ $ServiceNow(NOW)$

Semiconductor stocks are under pressure, but after sharp declines, the next move may be just as important as the selloff itself. 👀 🧠 $Micron Technology(MU)$ — Don’t Chase the Selloff Micron’s weekend trading activity is showing a potential print around $818. If that price holds into Monday’s regular session, the stock could open with a significant gap lower. ⚠️ With price potentially stretching well below the lower Bollinger Band, short sellers should be careful about chasing the move. A sharp reversal could catch late shorts off guard. And with a P/E ratio around 11, $MU doesn’t look expensive on that metric alone. But remember, memory-chip earnings are cyclical, so a low P/E doesn’t automatically mean the stock has bottomed. 📉

Both the consumer and wholesale inflation reports released this week came in hotter than expected. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed annual headline inflation accelerating to 3.7% in September, up from 3.4% in August, while consumer prices rose 0.6% on a monthly basis. Removing volatile food and energy, core CPI ticked up to 2.6% annually, from 2.4% in August. The 3.7% print reflects a re-acceleration, it remains well below the multidecade peak of 9.1% recorded in June 2022 but it extends one of the longest stretches of elevated inflation in the past century. Headline CPI has now stayed above the Federal Reserve’s 2.0% target for more than five years, since March 2021. The primary catalyst for the recent bump is energy. The conflict in the Middle East has disrupted energy supplies and

Two charts to watch as we head into next week. Oversold conditions may invite a bounce, but that doesn't automatically mean the uptrend is back. 📉 $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ | Oversold Bounce on Deck? Price has again traveled from the upper Bollinger Band to the lower band and is approaching oversold territory. A technical bounce next week looks increasingly plausible. But there’s a catch: the uptrend has already been interrupted, and the breakdown from the narrowing price structure remains a risk for bulls. A bounce alone won’t confirm a recovery. 🔄 $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ | Another Bounce-and-Selloff Cycle? The pattern is becoming familiar: bounce, selloff, bounce, selloff. Until price br

On Thursday, October 1st I documented the technical reasons why a spike in $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ was imminent, commenting in several editions that the move had a 2 week window to occur. On Thursday October, October 8th I anticipated a bearish formation in price action for the $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ , increasing the probabilities for a decline in the market. This week’s selloff is not unexpected, neither the destinations considering specific price levels that I have been highlighting in the premium / paid content: 7684.7 for $S&P 500(.SPX)$ / 765.6 for $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ , and 29,647 and 29,235 for

$Roundhill Memory ETF(DRAM)$ is a good reminder that chasing a sharp selloff can be dangerous. On October 14, the stock looked oversold relative to its Bollinger Bands, while the oscillator was curling up from oversold territory—a signal that had been constructive in recent sessions. By Thursday morning, with $DRAM down 6.5% in premarket and facing a major gap below the lower Bollinger Band, the risk of shorting late was already elevated. The stock subsequently squeezed bears as the oversold conditions fueled a rebound. The lesson: A sharp gap down doesn't guarantee further downside. When price is stretched, wait for confirmation and use key price levels to define risk rather than chasing momentum. Stay disciplined, Tigers. 📊 Markets are always mo

Hi Tigers! 🐯 Let’s look at four names on the radar today. Some are holding constructive setups, while others need to reclaim key levels before the bullish case strengthens. 📈 $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ — The breakout remains solid above the 20DMA. A break below that average could open the way to the lower Bollinger Band, but there’s no reason to anticipate that move before the blue line breaks. For this week, keep 725.9 on your radar. 🎯 $Netflix(NFLX)$ — Yesterday’s analysis highlighted a constructive setup, and the follow-through delivered. The price action played out as expected. 💪 $Qualcomm(QCOM)$ — Wednesday’s resilience hinted at a bounce, and Thursday’s r

An interesting divergence is playing out in the market. While the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ is currently in the green for the week +1%, the $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ and $S&P 500(.SPX)$ are down -3% and -0.9%, respectively. A major sector rotation is underway: Semiconductors ( $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ ): Down -7.4% on the week, driven by sharp pullbacks in individual names like $Micron Technology(MU)$ (-9.5%), $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ (-7.5%), and $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ (-5%). Defensives & Value: Consum