To The Moon

Technical analysis has proven to be a powerful edge for both long-term investors and traders. Over the past weeks, I have provided documented calls with clear references to significant moves in the market, and this week offers a good opportunity to connect precise calls. On July 29th, I called the bullish reversal for $Gold - main 2612(GCmain)$ with specific levels. While many analysts had been constructing the bull case for months, Gold had already dropped roughly 30% from its peak, a drawdown that even the most committed long-term holders struggle to sit through without a technical framework to lean on. The call was documented, $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$ is up +13.9% since my note, the levels were clear,

U.S. stocks experienced a turbulent, bruising week of trading. Despite a relief bounce on Friday, all three major U.S. stock indexes posted weekly losses. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ declined following a high probability setup posted last weekend, the index lost on Monday the anticipated Central Weekly Level (CWL) of 7,773. The CWL has proven to be a key threshold to define bullish conditions when the price is above it, or bearish conditions when the price is below it. The bearish destinations modeled in advance for this week were 7,729, 7,673, and 7,630. All of them worked as levels that framed this week’s action, with 7,729 acting as resistance on Wednesday, 7,630 acted as support zone on Thursday, and by Friday 7,673 was the key zone for the bounce

As posted yesterday, the setup for the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust(DIA)$ looked mostly bearish. The central daily levels provided of 7,717 for the SPX, 534 for DIA, and 7,730 for the $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2609(ESmain)$ , were shared to validate the bearish setup if the price stayed below them. The SPX did open below the central daily level (CDL) that sets momentum. When the price stays below it, the structure favors the bearish thesis, and the opening far below it validated the technical setup. Next, the price lost 7,690 and attempted to fill the daily gap, but momentum vanished quickly, flipping the 7,690 defense

$Gold - main 2612(GCmain)$ doesn’t behave like a stock or a bond. There are no earnings to model, no dividends to discount, and no CEO to blame when the price drops. What gold reflects, more than anything else, is the collective confidence people have in the institutions managing money. When that confidence is high, gold is ignored. When it starts to crack, gold gets attention fast. $Silver - main 2609(SImain)$ follows the same logic but adds a wrinkle: it has a real industrial life. Solar panels, electronics, electric vehicles, medical equipment. That dual identity makes silver louder, more volatile, and more interesting to trade, but also harder to hold when the industrial cycle turns against it

$SPX was rejected around 7,714 today before sliding toward 7,684, keeping the short-term structure firmly on the defensive. The key question now is whether the current move develops into a broader gap fill toward 7,610. 👀 For the bearish gap-fill thesis to remain intact, 7,760 is the level that matters most. A recovery back above 7,760 would weaken or invalidate the setup. Until then, 7,714 and 7,684 remain the next downside levels to watch as the move potentially develops over several sessions. ⚠️ Tomorrow's FOMC minutes at 2:00 PM add another layer of event risk. Volatility could increase sharply around the release, so the short-term path may remain bearish or choppy rather than develop into a clean directional move. 📊 The bigger picture is different. The medium- and long-term structure

The stock market declined today as technical conditions suggested and our levels validated. Last Saturday, the Weekly Compass presented a high-probability bearish reversal for the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ , marking the loss of 7,773 as the key trigger that would validate the thesis, a level not far from Friday’s close, and in fact, a level breached during Monday morning in market hours with no gaps or premarket surprises. Following yesterday’s decline in the SPX and $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ , I studied the semiconductor rally, highlighting the gaps on $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ , $Micron Technology(MU)$ , and bearish setups for

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ earnings remain solid, with 86% of companies beating Q2 estimates and revenue growth reaching its strongest level since 2022. But record insider selling, stretched valuations and historically high institutional equity exposure are raising a different question: how much upside is left when the people with the most information are selling and the biggest pools of capital are already heavily invested? Corporate insiders sold $77.6 billion worth of stock in the first half of 2026, the second-highest level of selling recorded in more than two decades. For every insider buying shares, eleven were selling. That is not noise. That is the people with the most information about future earnings, margins, and competitive positioning quietl

Macroeconomic data drove the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ to a brand-new historical high this week, though macro exhaustion caused a slight market decline by Friday: Inflation Data Sparks a Rally Earlier in the week, the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) figures boosted equity markets. The wholesale inflation reading (PPI) remained unchanged month-over-month, boosting optimism that the Federal Reserve will pause interest rate adjustments at its September policy meeting. This data originally catalyzed a rally on Thursday, pushing the S&P 500 to a record close near 7,800. Late-Week Pullback: A Slowing US Consumer The initial rate-pause optimism was tempered on Friday by economic data indicating that the primary engine of the

Tech stocks drove another strong session, with $SPX breaking higher while $MSFT and $AMZN showed very different technical setups. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ pushed through a major breakout level, helped by softer-than-expected inflation data and renewed strength across technology stocks. The 5-day moving average continues to support the uptrend and remains the key short-term trend guide. The oscillator is already in overbought territory, but today's candle still points to continued momentum. The main risk to watch is $VIX, which has moved slightly higher and could signal rising short-term volatility. $Microsoft(MSFT)$ is taking a more cautious path. Previous moves above the upper Bollinger Band were followed by

Tech shares and softer-than-expected inflation data fueled the stock market today. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ breached the 7,800 milestone for the first time to set a new all-time high. Last night, we studied charts for the SPX and $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2609(ESmain)$ , highlighting two key levels that would provide direction to the next move: 7,729 for the SPX: “if that level breaks, a gap fill thesis would be likely” and: 7,799 for the ES=Futures, “if that one is breached, there could be a continuation for this bull leg”. Both levels were very close to price action, in addition, today’s CDL for the SPX (7,750) kept its support condition from the opening. Using levels to validate direction is an ess