To The Moon

I. Fundamentals: Long-Term Value vs. Near-Term Supply Shock 1. Long-term bull case unchanged, but short-term price under four layers of pressure ① tactical concerns over the upcoming lock-up expiry; ② AI business uncertainty; ③ potential Tesla merger complexity; ④ lower-than-expected passive index buying. As the lock-up expiry passes, the stock is expected to stabilize at some level. 2. Valuation: SOTP stress test suggests AI business is nearly free At the current price of approximately $108/share (~$1.4 trillion valuation), a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) stress test suggests that just the Space + Connectivity segments alone already support the bulk of the value: Space, benchmarked against Blue Origin, is valued at roughly $390–650 billion; Connectivity is conservatively valued at over $748 bil

I. Fundamentals Citi maintains a Buy rating, naming AMD its top growth semiconductor pick for the second half of 2026. Q2 revenue is expected at $11.3 billion / EPS $1.66, and Q3 revenue at $14.0 billion / EPS $2.28 — both above consensus, driven primarily by upside in server CPUs and AI GPUs. Data center sales for 2026 are projected at $33.7 billion (+103% YoY). Meta has emerged as a key new customer (custom MI450, six-year gigawatt-scale deal with ~$15 billion revenue per GW). AI sales are expected to reach $33 billion in 2027 and $50.8 billion in 2028. TAM has been significantly revised upward: AI accelerators to $1.4 trillion by 2030, data center CPUs to $220 billion (both with CAGRs exceeding 45%). Risk: The stock is already fully priced, with capacity sold out, limiting near-term ups

Noteworthy Points 1. AMD and SPCX Report Earnings After the Close on 8/4 (Tuesday) Given that both ARM and INTC delivered earnings beats, AMD, as the leading competitor in the same space, is unlikely to post numbers inferior to those two. Furthermore, AMD's post-earnings price movement will likely have a knock-on effect on ARM and INTC (sector-linked co-movement). 2. SPCX: High Growth Potential, But Two Near-Term Wildcards While SPCX possesses extremely high growth potential, two factors warrant attention: On 8/6 (two trading days after earnings), $116 billion in locked-up shares will become eligible for sale — the potential selling pressure should not be overlooked; On 8/3, Elon Musk echoed a follower's view on X that "this is a once-in-a-lifetime buying opportunity" — a bullish sentiment

I. Spending + Debt Issuance + Cash Flow Risks For this earnings report, Amazon faces the risk of upward revisions to capital expenditures or operating cash flow falling short of expectations. Competition for retail market share remains intense, which could further pressure retail margins. Amazon commands a significant share of the credit market, coupled with persistent oversupply from ongoing bond issuance — its credit performance is expected to lag behind the sector. Amazon is projected to add another $25–35 billion in debt by the end of 2026. Even the bond market is pricing in risks from Amazon's debt issuance and spending — this originates from the same valuation-killing dynamic seen with META and GOOGL. The make-or-break factor on the equity side is whether AWS growth can justify these

I. Core Perspective: Apple's Key Factor Is Not Capex, but Expectation Realization Unlike MSFT / META / GOOGL, Apple is not a story of heavy AI spending and compressed free cash flow — it is a cash cow by nature. Therefore, for this earnings report, the specific numbers are not the most critical factor. The key question is: Apple has already risen 16.88% this month — have the good news already been priced into the stock? The current price sits at approximately 32x FY27 P/E, approaching valuation peaks. That is the true variable that will determine post-earnings price direction. June quarter iPhone likely beat slightly, but September quarter gross margin guidance may be on the low side, with gross margins expected around 46.8% (consensus 47.4%). Services growth faces headwinds, with the App

I. Fundamentals: Revenue and EPS Expected to Beat Consensus Q2 results are expected to beat consensus on both revenue and EPS, with additional upside to EPS driven by the cost-cutting effect of a 10% headcount reduction in May and a 49% month-over-month decline in job postings during Q2. AI integration + external compute sales are emerging as new growth drivers. Based on rumors that Meta may reach a compute leasing agreement with Anthropic, the market has priced in an additional $5 billion in AI compute revenue expectations by 2027. The bull case is well-rounded (stable advertising + AI monetization + cost reduction + reasonable valuation). However, like Microsoft and Google, Meta is one of the heaviest capex spenders among tech giants — with both AI infrastructure and Reality Labs burning

I. Fundamentals: AI Execution Remains the Core Debate Microsoft reports Q4 FY26 results after the close on July 29. Market focus centers on three points: Azure growth following new capacity rollouts, the pressure of capital expenditures on margins and free cash flow, and M365 Copilot adoption rates along with broader AI monetization capability. Azure year-over-year growth is the key metric to monitor, with company guidance at 39–40%. FY26 Q4 capital expenditures (including leases) are expected to reach $42 billion, up 32% quarter-over-quarter and 74% year-over-year, compressing free cash flow from $25.5 billion last quarter to $14.4 billion. M365 Copilot added 5 million paid seats in FY26 Q3, bringing the total to 20 million, with AI annual recurring revenue (ARR) exceeding $37 billion, up

I. Fundamentals: Long-Term Visibility Improves, Valuation Attractive SK Hynix is signing more amended long-term agreements with hyperscale data center customers, covering both DDR5 and NAND. Contract terms exceed five years, with approximately 60–70% of expected volume/pricing already locked in, significantly boosting future earnings visibility — this serves as micro-level confirmation of the large-capex-backed memory storage thesis. This earnings report is expected to deliver unprecedented operating profit exceeding 100 trillion won. Yet, with such strong expectations, the stock has still plunged dramatically, indicating that near-term market sentiment has completely broken down. II. Volatility Estimates and Scenarios Monday's pre-market reference price was 154.57, with implied movement o

📊 Noteworthy Points Market Main Theme: Capex Concerns Have Not Yet Been Fully Priced In The AI narrative is still present, but the market has begun to question the monetization ability of massive capex, putting pressure on valuations. The widespread decline following last week's earnings reports from several tech giants suggests that the valuation-killing logic of "full expectations + capex concerns" has not yet run its course. Earnings from similar tech stocks this week (META, MSFT, AAPL, AMZN) are likely to remain under pressure, with the prevailing direction still leaning toward Sell Call. Watch Whether Post-Earnings Pullback Stocks Break Below Forecast Ranges Tesla, Google, and INTC have already dropped significantly after earnings (TSLA 380→313, GOOGL 352→320, INTC 105→92). If they fa

I. Fundamentals: Two Engines Determine Valuation The core focus of this earnings report is whether the two main threads — Server CPU and Foundry — can deliver a turning point. 1. Server CPU: The Core Engine for Earnings Growth Although declining PC sales pose a headwind, Intel is offsetting this with stronger CPU pricing power and AI demand. More critically, Agentic AI is expected to significantly boost server CPU demand, with the GPU/CPU ratio projected to drop from 2× to 1.1–1.4×. Leveraging the strong stickiness of x86 in the enterprise sector, Intel is well-positioned to become a key beneficiary of enterprise-grade Agentic AI. Server CPU revenue is projected to grow at a 28% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through 2030. 2. Foundry Business: A Turning Point Has Emerged Front-end manu