To The Moon

I. Fundamentals

Citi maintains a Buy rating, naming AMD its top growth semiconductor pick for the second half of 2026.

• Q2 revenue is expected at $11.3 billion / EPS $1.66, and Q3 revenue at $14.0 billion / EPS $2.28 — both above consensus, driven primarily by upside in server CPUs and AI GPUs.

• Data center sales for 2026 are projected at $33.7 billion (+103% YoY).

• Meta has emerged as a key new customer (custom MI450, six-year gigawatt-scale deal with ~$15 billion revenue per GW).

• AI sales are expected to reach $33 billion in 2027 and $50.8 billion in 2028.

• TAM has been significantly revised upward: AI accelerators to $1.4 trillion by 2030, data center CPUs to $220 billion (both with CAGRs exceeding 45%).

Risk: The stock is already fully priced, with capacity sold out, limiting near-term upside.

II. Volatility Estimates and Key Levels

Based on a price of 476 and IV of 82%, this week's (expiring 8/7, earnings after 8/4 close) implied move is approximately ±11.24%, corresponding to a range of roughly 422–530.

Combined with options data:

• Upside resistance: 500 (round number + Gamma wall) → 520 → 550 (large Call wall + lottery buying).

• Downside support: 473 (inflection point) → 465/460 → 450 → 430.

• Positioning: Near-the-money 500/550 Calls are bullish, with deep OTM tail protection stacked. Peers ARM and INTC have already beaten expectations, providing a positive read-through for AMD.

III. Block Trade Analysis: Near-Term Bullish, Range Set at 370–570

• Sold the 8/21-expiry 570 Call$AMD 20260821 570.0 CALL$ (300 contracts, $4M notional) → betting it won't break above 570 (capping the upside).

• Sold the 9/4-expiry 370 Put $AMD 20260904 370.0 PUT$ (16,000 contracts) → betting it won't break below 370 (floor support / willing to take assignment).

• Bought the 8/7-expiry 495 Call $AMD 20260807 495.0 CALL$ (5,569 contracts) → betting post-earnings >515 (including premium breakeven).

• Bought the 8/7-expiry 515 Call $AMD 20260807 515.0 CALL$ ($1.97M notional) → betting >530.

Summary: This week is clearly bullish (495/515 Call buys), with the medium-term range defined by 370–570. Bullish targets are concentrated at 515 → 530+, but 570 is capped by seller pressure.

IV. Three Scenarios and Corresponding Strategies (Illustrative, Not Recommendations)

Scenario 1: Range-bound oscillation (422–530, move ≤ ±11.24%)

Earnings in line, no major surprises. IV collapses sharply from 82% (IV crush) — favors sellers:

• Consider an Iron Condor: Sell Puts below 430 and sell Calls above 530–550, using long legs to cap both ends.

• For those willing to take assignment: Sell Puts at 450/430 $AMD 20260807 430.0 PUT$

• ⚠️ AMD earnings moves can be extremely one-sided — it's essential to use an Iron Condor to limit losses, keep position sizes small, and avoid selling naked.

Scenario 2: Breaks above 530 (data center / AI GPU beats expectations)

A high-volume breakout. At IV of 82%, buying naked Calls directly risks being hurt by IV crush:

• Consider a Bull Call Spread, e.g., buy 500 $AMD 20260807 500.0 CALL$ / sell 550$AMD 20260807 550.0 CALL$  (550 is a major Call wall — selling there collects premium).

• More conservatively: wait for a confirmed retest after breaking 530 before following the trend.

• For sellers: Sell Puts on a pullback to support (480–490) to collect premium.

Scenario 3: Breaks below 420 (guidance / data center misses expectations)

Breaks below the 473 inflection point, then breaches 450/430:

• For trend followers: Consider a Bear Put Spread, e.g., buy 430 / sell 400, to control costs.

• Don't rush to catch the falling knife — negative Gamma amplifies downside. Wait for stabilization and IV to subside, then sell Puts in staggered lots at strong support levels (430 or near that 370 Put area) to take assignment.

• ⚠️ Risk: An oversold rebound.

⚠️ Disclaimer: The above is an observational analysis of public options data and a strategy illustration, provided for educational and discussion purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. AMD earnings are highly volatile with IV at 82%; any price level is probabilistic. Investing involves risk; options are derivative products. Under high-IV conditions, naked buying and selling carry especially high risk.