To The Moon

Sell puts on those stocks that i want to buy. If assigned will just buy them with discount..[Smile]  

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ QQQ suddenly initiated a small pullback, with the target being the starting price from August 3, around 710. SPY also looks like it's heading for a pullback to 760. This pullback isn't actually that small, but compared to July, it is. In terms of magnitude, it's simply giving back the excess gains from August 4. Even if it pulls back to 760, SPY's August gains would still be positive. The VIX 24 Call opened 146,600 contracts $VIX 20260916 24.0 CALL$ . Compared to the previous 28 Call opening, this is relatively moderate — suggesting that this pullback will likely push the VIX only into the low 20s. $SanDisk Corp

$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ are in an awkward position — especially CRWV. The key takeaway from earnings isn't in the financial results themselves, but outside the filings: GPU rental prices. It's similar to how storage stocks are priced — earnings only become interesting after long-term agreements (LTAs) are signed; before that, it's all about whether storage prices are going up. For data centers, both of these companies are heavily leveraged and asset-heavy. Whether they can turn a profit depends entirely on whether GPUs can be rented at good prices. If GPU rental prices fall, even stellar earnings won't save the stock — because institutions will reason that if you're renting cheap but bought

I have not traded options and always wanted to traded but scared to do With this, I will sink my hands in option, Let me try n understand one trade at a time So I will begin with csp,(cash secured put)

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ The news came out the day before yesterday that Anthropic is planning an IPO in September or early October. That would be right after Triple Witching on 9/18 — which roughly translates to bullish after Triple Witching. The bullish playbook is probably similar to before: continue squeezing the shorts, with the broader market dipping first then rallying. Oh, SPY might not drop, but some sectors will. IGV opened 50,000 contracts of the September 18-expiry 90 put$IGV 20261218 90.0 PUT$ — a buy-side bearish bet with a notional value of approximately $13.5 million. On the same day, PLTR opened 28,000 contracts of the 140 put

I do cash secured puts on stocks i dont mind owning. Though I think this strategy works better for indices

I do the options wheel to generate income from premiums 

With regards to option strategies, I would usually use cash secured put, covered call, bull put spread and bear call spread. Thereafter, I will monitor the price action and close the options before expiry if necessary to manage my risk. In the past, I will let it expire but we will never know if the market or the counter itself experiences a sudden surge or drop. I will also spread the risk across different themes such as AI, consumer discretion, metals and healthcare. I will also allocate a small position in HK stocks. Do follow me to see my trades. 

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ This week, SPY is being held below 780 — not my opinion, but dictated by the Bull Call Spreads: $SPY 20260814 780.0 CALL$ $SPY 20260814 788.0 CALL$ Rotation is back in play, with semiconductors once again becoming the sector being reined in. Last week's big regulator, NVIDIA, pulled back, while pharmaceuticals and software rebounded. $SpaceX(SPCX)$ There are two possible scenarios for this week: one is the stock being trapped in a 125–135 consolidation range; the other is breaking above 135 and trading in a 135–155 range. Either way, selli

The market is showing a clear divergence: AI monetization remains strong, while traditional consumer tech is starting to show signs of weakness. OpenAI’s accelerating revenue and Microsoft’s strong cloud growth suggest that AI demand is becoming a real business rather than just a hype story. However, Qualcomm’s cautious outlook raises concerns about smartphone demand and Apple’s supply chain. For me, the key question is whether AI earnings can keep growing fast enough to justify current valuations, especially with interest rates remaining elevated. I’m watching earnings, capex and cash flow closely — the companies turning AI spending into real profits should have the strongest long-term advantage. @MillionaireTiger [思考]

Color Legend 🔴 Red: Broke above/below the forecast range, or broke above/below the simulated strike alternative. 🟠 Orange: Briefly broke above/below the range, but closed within the strike range. I. This Week's Simulation Results: ✅ All 4 Trades Profitable TSLA Sell Call: 8/7 expiry 340 — Note: Ample buffer on the upside. AAPL Sell Put: 8/14 expiry 290 — Note: No material negative surprises from earnings. AMD Sell Put: 8/14 expiry 400 — Note: Sustainable (roll to next week's 400 Put). INTC Sell Put: 8/14 expiry 90 — Note: Sustainable (roll to next week's 90 Put). The seller environment was broadly favorable this week, but there is an important risk reminder in the broader market section below. II. Broader Market Assessment (SPY & QQQ) Coordinated U.S.-Japan FX intervention + surging eq

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Friday's nonfarm payrolls data is the big test, but Wednesday's ADP small employment report showed only 44,000 new jobs — missing expectations — which has made the market less certain about a September rate hike. It's not out of the question that SPY could retrace to 760 over the next two weeks. After that pullback, it's expected to remain in a high-level consolidation range. $SK hynix(SKHY)$ All seven storage companies have now reported earnings: Samsung, Hynix, Micron, SNDK, Kioxia, WDC, and STX. There's nothing wrong with the earnings themselves — the only problem is that prices got too expensive and got in the way of the cloud providers. How could a Korean storage comp

One-sentence theme for today: Storage earnings are wrapping up and entering a valuation re-pricing phase; gold is breaking out on rising rate-cut expectations; SPCX faces its first massive lock-up expiry. The common thread across all three: it's not a time to chase highs, but a stage to position cautiously at support levels via Sell Puts. I. Storage Sector: Earnings Behind Us, Entering Valuation Adjustment Phase SanDisk (SNDK): Down ~10.7% pre-market, breaking below the 120-day moving average, with next-quarter revenue guidance below consensus. Western Digital (WDC): Down ~14% pre-market, still holding above the 120-day MA; results fell short of the elevated expectations set by STX's earnings. Key variable: SNDK disclosed an aggregate LTA revenue floor of $93.9 billion — establishing a val

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ This is the most aggressive single-leg bullish bet I've ever seen: $SPY 20260821 785.0 CALL$  — a block trade buying the August 21-expiry 785 call, opening 85,000 contracts. $SPY 20260814 775.0 CALL$— a block trade buying the August 14-expiry 775 call, opening 85,000 contracts. $SPY 20260918 820.0 CALL$ — a block trade buying the September 18-expiry 820 call, opening 26,000 contracts. Notably, the 785 call is a roll — the previously mentioned $SPY 20260821

I. Fundamentals SanDisk and Kioxia are 25-year NAND partners, jointly operating the world's largest NAND production facility. Kioxia's earnings have a decisive impact on SNDK. Bullish: Kioxia's Q2 pricing rose +70%, and long-term agreements (LTAs) increased — signaling hyperscaler confidence in demand durability. Bearish: Kioxia's Q1 results and guidance missed expectations, raising concerns about a slowdown in the AI flash memory pricing cycle. Kioxia subsequently announced a 1-for-3 stock split and a buyback of up to ¥800 billion to stabilize sentiment. Key observation: With the stock having already fully corrected in July, Kioxia did not decline post-earnings. It is reasonable to expect SNDK may behave similarly, with price action likely oscillating within the expected range after earni

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ I think these two lines are all the headline this article needs today. No need to analyze any other stocks. SPY has rallied to 775 — just close your eyes and pick any stock, and you'd make money. SPY dropped a massive block trade on the market — the August 21-expiry 775 call $SPY 20260821 775.0 CALL$ opened 50,000 contracts (buy-side). And today, more large bullish call trades continued to open during the session: 49,700 contracts of the August 14-expiry 775 call l$SPY 20260814 775.0 CALL$ , and 20,000 contracts of the September 18-expiry 820 call

I. Fundamentals: Long-Term Value vs. Near-Term Supply Shock 1. Long-term bull case unchanged, but short-term price under four layers of pressure ① tactical concerns over the upcoming lock-up expiry; ② AI business uncertainty; ③ potential Tesla merger complexity; ④ lower-than-expected passive index buying. As the lock-up expiry passes, the stock is expected to stabilize at some level. 2. Valuation: SOTP stress test suggests AI business is nearly free At the current price of approximately $108/share (~$1.4 trillion valuation), a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) stress test suggests that just the Space + Connectivity segments alone already support the bulk of the value: Space, benchmarked against Blue Origin, is valued at roughly $390–650 billion; Connectivity is conservatively valued at over $748 bil

I. Fundamentals Citi maintains a Buy rating, naming AMD its top growth semiconductor pick for the second half of 2026. Q2 revenue is expected at $11.3 billion / EPS $1.66, and Q3 revenue at $14.0 billion / EPS $2.28 — both above consensus, driven primarily by upside in server CPUs and AI GPUs. Data center sales for 2026 are projected at $33.7 billion (+103% YoY). Meta has emerged as a key new customer (custom MI450, six-year gigawatt-scale deal with ~$15 billion revenue per GW). AI sales are expected to reach $33 billion in 2027 and $50.8 billion in 2028. TAM has been significantly revised upward: AI accelerators to $1.4 trillion by 2030, data center CPUs to $220 billion (both with CAGRs exceeding 45%). Risk: The stock is already fully priced, with capacity sold out, limiting near-term ups

Noteworthy Points 1. AMD and SPCX Report Earnings After the Close on 8/4 (Tuesday) Given that both ARM and INTC delivered earnings beats, AMD, as the leading competitor in the same space, is unlikely to post numbers inferior to those two. Furthermore, AMD's post-earnings price movement will likely have a knock-on effect on ARM and INTC (sector-linked co-movement). 2. SPCX: High Growth Potential, But Two Near-Term Wildcards While SPCX possesses extremely high growth potential, two factors warrant attention: On 8/6 (two trading days after earnings), $116 billion in locked-up shares will become eligible for sale — the potential selling pressure should not be overlooked; On 8/3, Elon Musk echoed a follower's view on X that "this is a once-in-a-lifetime buying opportunity" — a bullish sentiment

my winnings [Claw] [USD]

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ QQQ suddenly initiated a small pullback, with the target being the starting price from August 3, around 710. SPY also looks like it's heading for a pullback to 760. This pullback isn't actually that small, but compared to July, it is. In terms of magnitude, it's simply giving back the excess gains from August 4. Even if it pulls back to 760, SPY's August gains would still be positive. The VIX 24 Call opened 146,600 contracts $VIX 20260916 24.0 CALL$ . Compared to the previous 28 Call opening, this is relatively moderate — suggesting that this pullback will likely push the VIX only into the low 20s. $SanDisk Corp

Sell puts on those stocks that i want to buy. If assigned will just buy them with discount..[Smile]  

$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ are in an awkward position — especially CRWV. The key takeaway from earnings isn't in the financial results themselves, but outside the filings: GPU rental prices. It's similar to how storage stocks are priced — earnings only become interesting after long-term agreements (LTAs) are signed; before that, it's all about whether storage prices are going up. For data centers, both of these companies are heavily leveraged and asset-heavy. Whether they can turn a profit depends entirely on whether GPUs can be rented at good prices. If GPU rental prices fall, even stellar earnings won't save the stock — because institutions will reason that if you're renting cheap but bought

I have not traded options and always wanted to traded but scared to do With this, I will sink my hands in option, Let me try n understand one trade at a time So I will begin with csp,(cash secured put)

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ This week, SPY is being held below 780 — not my opinion, but dictated by the Bull Call Spreads: $SPY 20260814 780.0 CALL$ $SPY 20260814 788.0 CALL$ Rotation is back in play, with semiconductors once again becoming the sector being reined in. Last week's big regulator, NVIDIA, pulled back, while pharmaceuticals and software rebounded. $SpaceX(SPCX)$ There are two possible scenarios for this week: one is the stock being trapped in a 125–135 consolidation range; the other is breaking above 135 and trading in a 135–155 range. Either way, selli

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ The news came out the day before yesterday that Anthropic is planning an IPO in September or early October. That would be right after Triple Witching on 9/18 — which roughly translates to bullish after Triple Witching. The bullish playbook is probably similar to before: continue squeezing the shorts, with the broader market dipping first then rallying. Oh, SPY might not drop, but some sectors will. IGV opened 50,000 contracts of the September 18-expiry 90 put$IGV 20261218 90.0 PUT$ — a buy-side bearish bet with a notional value of approximately $13.5 million. On the same day, PLTR opened 28,000 contracts of the 140 put

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ I think these two lines are all the headline this article needs today. No need to analyze any other stocks. SPY has rallied to 775 — just close your eyes and pick any stock, and you'd make money. SPY dropped a massive block trade on the market — the August 21-expiry 775 call $SPY 20260821 775.0 CALL$ opened 50,000 contracts (buy-side). And today, more large bullish call trades continued to open during the session: 49,700 contracts of the August 14-expiry 775 call l$SPY 20260814 775.0 CALL$ , and 20,000 contracts of the September 18-expiry 820 call

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Friday's nonfarm payrolls data is the big test, but Wednesday's ADP small employment report showed only 44,000 new jobs — missing expectations — which has made the market less certain about a September rate hike. It's not out of the question that SPY could retrace to 760 over the next two weeks. After that pullback, it's expected to remain in a high-level consolidation range. $SK hynix(SKHY)$ All seven storage companies have now reported earnings: Samsung, Hynix, Micron, SNDK, Kioxia, WDC, and STX. There's nothing wrong with the earnings themselves — the only problem is that prices got too expensive and got in the way of the cloud providers. How could a Korean storage comp

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ This is the most aggressive single-leg bullish bet I've ever seen: $SPY 20260821 785.0 CALL$  — a block trade buying the August 21-expiry 785 call, opening 85,000 contracts. $SPY 20260814 775.0 CALL$— a block trade buying the August 14-expiry 775 call, opening 85,000 contracts. $SPY 20260918 820.0 CALL$ — a block trade buying the September 18-expiry 820 call, opening 26,000 contracts. Notably, the 785 call is a roll — the previously mentioned $SPY 20260821

"Stock God" Leopold was margin-called and forced to transfer his holdings — Citadel Securities swooped in and picked them up at a bargain price. The very next day, the market rebounded sharply with a massive surge. There's something worth reminding everyone about: Citadel Securities acquired Morgan Stanley's options market-making business in 2025 and is likely the largest options market maker in the market today. As we all know, options liquidity is provided by market makers, so Leopold's large block buy orders were essentially visible chips in the eyes of the market makers. This reminds me of the old saying — "the mantis stalks the cicada, unaware of the oriole behind." The large block trades I've been tracking might just be fat lambs waiting to be sheared in the eyes of the market makers

Color Legend 🔴 Red: Broke above/below the forecast range, or broke above/below the simulated strike alternative. 🟠 Orange: Briefly broke above/below the range, but closed within the strike range. I. This Week's Simulation Results: ✅ All 4 Trades Profitable TSLA Sell Call: 8/7 expiry 340 — Note: Ample buffer on the upside. AAPL Sell Put: 8/14 expiry 290 — Note: No material negative surprises from earnings. AMD Sell Put: 8/14 expiry 400 — Note: Sustainable (roll to next week's 400 Put). INTC Sell Put: 8/14 expiry 90 — Note: Sustainable (roll to next week's 90 Put). The seller environment was broadly favorable this week, but there is an important risk reminder in the broader market section below. II. Broader Market Assessment (SPY & QQQ) Coordinated U.S.-Japan FX intervention + surging eq

I. Fundamentals: Long-Term Value vs. Near-Term Supply Shock 1. Long-term bull case unchanged, but short-term price under four layers of pressure ① tactical concerns over the upcoming lock-up expiry; ② AI business uncertainty; ③ potential Tesla merger complexity; ④ lower-than-expected passive index buying. As the lock-up expiry passes, the stock is expected to stabilize at some level. 2. Valuation: SOTP stress test suggests AI business is nearly free At the current price of approximately $108/share (~$1.4 trillion valuation), a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) stress test suggests that just the Space + Connectivity segments alone already support the bulk of the value: Space, benchmarked against Blue Origin, is valued at roughly $390–650 billion; Connectivity is conservatively valued at over $748 bil

I. Fundamentals: Revenue and EPS Expected to Beat Consensus Q2 results are expected to beat consensus on both revenue and EPS, with additional upside to EPS driven by the cost-cutting effect of a 10% headcount reduction in May and a 49% month-over-month decline in job postings during Q2. AI integration + external compute sales are emerging as new growth drivers. Based on rumors that Meta may reach a compute leasing agreement with Anthropic, the market has priced in an additional $5 billion in AI compute revenue expectations by 2027. The bull case is well-rounded (stable advertising + AI monetization + cost reduction + reasonable valuation). However, like Microsoft and Google, Meta is one of the heaviest capex spenders among tech giants — with both AI infrastructure and Reality Labs burning

I. Fundamentals: Long-Term Visibility Improves, Valuation Attractive SK Hynix is signing more amended long-term agreements with hyperscale data center customers, covering both DDR5 and NAND. Contract terms exceed five years, with approximately 60–70% of expected volume/pricing already locked in, significantly boosting future earnings visibility — this serves as micro-level confirmation of the large-capex-backed memory storage thesis. This earnings report is expected to deliver unprecedented operating profit exceeding 100 trillion won. Yet, with such strong expectations, the stock has still plunged dramatically, indicating that near-term market sentiment has completely broken down. II. Volatility Estimates and Scenarios Monday's pre-market reference price was 154.57, with implied movement o

The July FOMC confirmed no rate hike — that's good. The U.S. stock market really can't handle any more turbulence right now. It may seem "reasonable" that only South Korea and Japan are plummeting, but in reality, it's not reasonable at all. The 100,000-contract IGV weekly call position $IGV 20260731 88.0 CALL$ was closed before Tuesday's close. Although IGV continued to rise today, for weekly options with less than five days to expiration, the trading discipline is exactly that — open on the day, close on the same day or the next. The noteworthy point is that I initially thought this trade was betting on upside from MSFT and META earnings, and that after closing it would at least roll into a new position. But the block trad

One-sentence theme for today: Storage earnings are wrapping up and entering a valuation re-pricing phase; gold is breaking out on rising rate-cut expectations; SPCX faces its first massive lock-up expiry. The common thread across all three: it's not a time to chase highs, but a stage to position cautiously at support levels via Sell Puts. I. Storage Sector: Earnings Behind Us, Entering Valuation Adjustment Phase SanDisk (SNDK): Down ~10.7% pre-market, breaking below the 120-day moving average, with next-quarter revenue guidance below consensus. Western Digital (WDC): Down ~14% pre-market, still holding above the 120-day MA; results fell short of the elevated expectations set by STX's earnings. Key variable: SNDK disclosed an aggregate LTA revenue floor of $93.9 billion — establishing a val

I. Fundamentals Citi maintains a Buy rating, naming AMD its top growth semiconductor pick for the second half of 2026. Q2 revenue is expected at $11.3 billion / EPS $1.66, and Q3 revenue at $14.0 billion / EPS $2.28 — both above consensus, driven primarily by upside in server CPUs and AI GPUs. Data center sales for 2026 are projected at $33.7 billion (+103% YoY). Meta has emerged as a key new customer (custom MI450, six-year gigawatt-scale deal with ~$15 billion revenue per GW). AI sales are expected to reach $33 billion in 2027 and $50.8 billion in 2028. TAM has been significantly revised upward: AI accelerators to $1.4 trillion by 2030, data center CPUs to $220 billion (both with CAGRs exceeding 45%). Risk: The stock is already fully priced, with capacity sold out, limiting near-term ups

I. Fundamentals SanDisk and Kioxia are 25-year NAND partners, jointly operating the world's largest NAND production facility. Kioxia's earnings have a decisive impact on SNDK. Bullish: Kioxia's Q2 pricing rose +70%, and long-term agreements (LTAs) increased — signaling hyperscaler confidence in demand durability. Bearish: Kioxia's Q1 results and guidance missed expectations, raising concerns about a slowdown in the AI flash memory pricing cycle. Kioxia subsequently announced a 1-for-3 stock split and a buyback of up to ¥800 billion to stabilize sentiment. Key observation: With the stock having already fully corrected in July, Kioxia did not decline post-earnings. It is reasonable to expect SNDK may behave similarly, with price action likely oscillating within the expected range after earni

$SK hynix(SKHY)$ In the current range-bound market, U.S.-listed SK Hynix has a key weapon that the Hong Kong-listed 7709 $CSOP SK Hynix Daily (2x) Leveraged Product(07709)$ lacks: options! The Hong Kong ticker can only trade the underlying stock for price differences, while U.S.-listed SKHY allows you to Sell Puts during high volatility, turning range-bound movement directly into cash flow. Indeed, we've seen many large Sell Put orders over the past two days. Why is now particularly suitable for Selling Puts? SK Hynix reports earnings on 7/29, and pre-earnings IV has been pushed very high, making premiums especially rich. In addition, while the memory sector may not rally much in the short term, its long

I haven't written an article in a long time, and choosing to pick up the pen today feels rather meaningful—Big Tech's valuations got collectively marked down on this day, because the nature of their business has changed, from asset-light to asset-heavy. Some may remember the HALO (heavy assets, low obsolescence) concept that Goldman Sachs championed in the first half of the year. As it turns out, HALO just means "hard to die"—it doesn't mean "won't fall." When Big Tech collectively goes HALO, the broad market falls, and when the market falls, all stocks get dragged down with it. But on Thursday, semiconductor stocks—especially memory chips—held up remarkably well, because memory is the party being paid: it absorbs the cash flow coming from the HALO names. So when other stocks get marked do