To The Moon

Hi, tigers🐯

On October 26, Anthropic — the AI startup behind the Claude model family — publicly filed its S-1 registration statement with the SEC, setting the stage for what could be the largest IPO of the year. The company plans to list on the Nasdaq under the ticker $Anthropic(ANT)$, with a target debut window in November ahead of the U.S. midterm elections.

The filing lifts the curtain on a web of deep ties between Anthropic and the world's largest tech and cloud companies — companies that are simultaneously investors, customers, suppliers, and distribution channels. For investors who can't get direct allocation in the IPO, these public market names may offer the closest proxies.

📌 Key Takeaways

• $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ — Anthropic's largest strategic shareholder, with an estimated 15–21% stake. Amazon has also committed tens of billions in additional investments and sits on top of a $110B+ Trainium compute arrangement.

• $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ — Holds roughly 14–15% of Anthropic, worth approximately $135B at the latest private valuation. Google Cloud is simultaneously Anthropic's second-largest compute supplier with a $114.5B TPU commitment.

• $Broadcom(AVGO)$ — The purest supply-chain play. As the exclusive designer of Google's TPUs, Broadcom is party to a $161.2B five-year lease arrangement with Anthropic, plus up to $150B in additional optionality.

• $Microsoft(MSFT)$ and $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ — Both invested in Anthropic's Series G round, with commitments of up to $5B and $10B respectively. Anthropic has separately committed to $30B in Azure compute spend.

• The "circular deal" question — Many of these arrangements are with companies that are also shareholders. The IPO will force investors to scrutinize how much of Anthropic's $800B+ backlog represents genuine third-party demand versus internal cross-company commitments.

🤖 Why Is Anthropic's IPO a Big Deal?

Anthropic was founded in 2021 by former OpenAI researchers, including Dario Amodei. It has since grown into one of the two most prominent "frontier AI" companies globally, alongside OpenAI.

The S-1 filing reveals a company growing fast but burning cash:

• Revenue: $16.3 billion in the first half of 2026

• Net loss: Approximately $80.7 billion in H1 2026 (largely driven by non-cash fair-value changes on preferred stock)

• Customer base: 11,900+ customers spending ≥$100K annually; 1,900+ spending ≥$1M; roughly 250 spending ≥$10M

• Governance: Seven co-founders retain 50.1% of voting power post-IPO

• Latest private valuation: $965B after the $65B Series H round in May 2026

If it prices at or above that level, Anthropic would enter the public markets as one of the most valuable companies in the AI sector — and its IPO will put every company in its orbit under a magnifying glass.

🛒 1. Amazon ( $Amazon.com(AMZN)$): The Largest Strategic Stakeholder

Amazon is Anthropic's deepest partner on multiple fronts.

Equity position: Amazon has invested roughly $13 billion in Anthropic to date. Its convertible notes position means that after the IPO conversion, Amazon could hold approximately one-fifth of the outstanding shares — an estimated 15–21% stake. At the $965B private valuation, that stake alone is worth roughly $145–200 billion.

Compute relationship: Anthropic is one of AWS's most important AI customers. The companies have expanded their collaboration to deliver up to 5 gigawatts of new compute capacity, with Anthropic already using over one million Trainium2 chips. The long-term Trainium-related arrangement totals at least $110 billion.

Distribution: Over 100,000 customers now run Claude models through Amazon Bedrock, making AWS a primary go-to-market channel for Anthropic's enterprise business.

Why it matters for investors: Amazon gets the dual benefit of a massive equity revaluation when Anthropic lists, plus incremental AWS revenue from Anthropic's exploding compute demand. The stock already trades at a significant premium on AWS AI growth expectations — Anthropic's IPO will either validate or pressure that narrative.

🔍 2. Alphabet / Google ( $Alphabet(GOOGL)$): 14% Stake Plus TPU Demand

Google's relationship with Anthropic is arguably the most complex "frenemy" dynamic in Big Tech AI.

Equity position: Court documents have confirmed Google holds roughly 14% of Anthropic in straight equity, contractually capped at 15%. At the current $965B valuation, that stake is worth approximately $135 billion. Google also holds an option to invest an additional $10B in non-voting shares at the IPO price.

Compute relationship: Anthropic plans to expand its use of Google Cloud to up to one million TPUs, in a deal worth tens of billions of dollars. The disclosed TPU procurement commitment is at least $114.5 billion, with well over a gigawatt of capacity expected to come online in 2026.

The competitive tension: Google is simultaneously building its own Gemini model family. Anthropic runs on Google Cloud infrastructure and buys Google-designed chips, but competes with Google's own AI products for enterprise customers. This "co-opetition" means the upside from the Anthropic relationship is partially offset by competitive concerns.

📡 3. Broadcom ( $Broadcom(AVGO)$): The Highest-Leverage Supply Chain Play

If Amazon and Google offer "equity + cloud" exposure, Broadcom offers something closer to pure supply-chain leverage.

As the exclusive designer and developer of Google's TPU (Tensor Processing Unit) chips, Broadcom sits directly on top of Anthropic's TPU demand. The S-1 filing reveals:

• A five-year TPU equipment lease totaling approximately $161.2 billion

• An additional $125–150 billion in TPU-related spend planned for 2028–2031

• Broadcom is also providing up to $42 billion in financing to support the arrangement

Mizuho estimates that the Anthropic transaction alone could bring Broadcom over $80 billion in cumulative revenue, with Google + Anthropic combined accounting for 40–64% of Broadcom's total revenue.

Caveat: These are multi-year contract values, not annual revenue. The actual annual revenue contribution needs to be spread across the lease period. But for a company of Broadcom's scale, even the annualized portion represents a meaningful growth driver.

💻 4. Microsoft ( $Microsoft(MSFT)$): Azure Gets Another AI Anchor

Microsoft announced a strategic partnership with Anthropic in November 2025. The deal has two components:

• Investment: Microsoft committed up to $5B in Anthropic

• Compute: Anthropic committed to purchase $30B of Azure compute capacity

Anthropic is scaling Claude workloads on Microsoft Azure, powered by NVIDIA GPUs. In Q2 2026 alone, Microsoft recognized approximately $3.2B in unrealized gains from its Anthropic stake.

Relative to Microsoft's $3T+ market cap, Anthropic represents a small slice — but it adds another anchor tenant for Azure's AI infrastructure push, alongside OpenAI.

🎮 5. NVIDIA ( $NVIDIA(NVDA)$): GPU Demand + Equity Upside

NVIDIA also joined the Series G round, committing up to $10B in Anthropic.

While Anthropic is diversifying its chip stack across AWS Trainium, Google TPUs, and AMD GPUs, NVIDIA remains a key supplier — particularly for Azure-based Claude workloads. The strategic investment aligns NVIDIA with a major AI customer as GPU demand continues to scale.

For NVIDIA investors, Anthropic is another name on a long list of major AI customers ramping GPU purchases. The equity stake adds optionality, but the core GPU demand story is driven by the entire AI ecosystem, not Anthropic alone.

🤝 6. Salesforce ( $Salesforce.com(CRM)$): Ecosystem Synergy, Not Pure Play

Salesforce and Anthropic deepened their partnership in August 2026 with the launch of Claudeforce, a strategic collaboration integrating Claude into Salesforce's Agentforce platform.

Anthropic is the first LLM provider fully integrated within Salesforce's trust boundary, with all Claude traffic contained within Salesforce's virtual private cloud. Early adopters include CrowdStrike and RBC Wealth Management.

The two companies are also strategic customers of each other — Salesforce is Anthropic's preferred CRM, and Slack is Anthropic's preferred collaboration platform.

For CRM investors, this is a product differentiation play rather than a pure Anthropic earnings lever. It strengthens Agentforce's enterprise value proposition, but Salesforce is also building its own Einstein AI capabilities.

📊 Full Landscape: Anthropic's Public-Market Beneficiaries

💰 What Could This Mean for Investors?

The Anthropic IPO creates multiple layers of exposure, and not all are equal.

Price action so far: On the day the S-1 was publicly filed, Hong Kong-listed AI model names saw notable gains — Zhipu (2513.HK) rose nearly 10%, and MiniMax (0100.HK) gained around 5%. These moves reflect the "benchmark effect" of Anthropic's IPO setting a valuation floor for the global large-model sector.

For U.S.-listed names, the reaction has been more measured. Amazon, Google, and Broadcom are all mega-cap stocks where Anthropic's contribution is meaningful but not yet transformative at the consolidated level. The bigger question is how the IPO narrative reshapes the market's AI infrastructure spending assumptions more broadly.

⚠️Other Risks Investors Should Price In

Funding interdependence: Investors can also be suppliers. The key test is whether independent customer cash generation supports commitments; the relationship alone does not prove artificial revenue.

Commitment overlap: Leases, service purchases, financing and options have different economics. Adding every headline amount can double-count exposure.

Execution: Power availability, deployment delays, chip supply and utilization determine when commitments become profitable revenue.

IPO capital rotation: Investors may sell existing AI holdings to fund a new position. A successful listing can therefore help sector sentiment while pressuring selected partners.

Governance and model risk: Concentrated voting control, safety failures and legal disputes can affect valuation and operating flexibility.

My Take: Follow Earnings Revisions after the Headlines

$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ and $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ offer broad cloud exposure; $Broadcom(AVGO)$ offers a more concentrated compute thesis with added financing complexity. $Microsoft(MSFT)$, $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ and $Salesforce.com(CRM)$ need evidence that their respective partnerships produce incremental earnings.

For Hong Kong or mainland AI peers, a valuation comparison is a possible trading narrative. It does not demonstrate shared contracts or revenue. I would require company-specific evidence before treating a sympathy rally as a fundamental upgrade.

The next durable move should depend on deployment, monetization and cash returns. This article uses conditional stock scenarios rather than unsupported price targets.

🎁 What Do You Think, Tigers?

Would you prefer $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ and $Alphabet(GOOGL)$’s cloud exposure, $Broadcom(AVGO)$’s compute opportunity, or Anthropic itself after final pricing? Which matters most to you: revenue growth, free cash flow or the price paid for that growth?

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All figures are based on publicly available information as of October 27, 2026, and may be subject to change. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.