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$100 Oil, the new Norm? Crude oil has decisively broken back above $100 per barrel, driven by: A sharp escalation in fighting between US and Iranian forces. And collapse in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. After months of relatively stable flows that kept prices in check, the market now faces a reality of sustained disruption, dwindling inventories, and limited room for supply to respond. Tanker traffic through the Strait has dropped from 6–9 million barrels daily (in August 2026) to below 2 million, with the renewed fighting. Recent reports also indicated that zero very large crude carrier has exited the Straits since 02 Sep 2026. With the latest news that 5 Iranian tankers have been destroyed by US and an Iranian’s counterstrike on US base in Jordan, quest for peace has just

Market Outlook of S&P500 (07Sep2026) Technical Analysis Overview MACD Indicator The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 is on a downtrend. However, there may be a reversal and let us await the crossover to confirm. Moving Averages Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows the last candlestick above the 50-day (MA50) and 200-day (MA200) moving average lines. This pattern indicates a bullish shift in the short and long term. Notably, both the MA50 and MA200 lines have continued to trend upward, indicating a bullish outlook in both the short and long term. Exponential Moving Averages This shows a bullish trend with a potential for reversal. Chaikin Money Flow CMF index shows a score of -0.18. This implies more sellin

Economic Calendar (07Sep2026) U.S. Holiday and Treasury Auctions The U.S. market will be closed on Monday for the Labour Day holiday weekend. Later in the week, investors will focus on the 10-year note auction and the 30-year bond auction, both of which are important indicators for the bond market. Higher bond yields may attract more capital into fixed income, potentially reducing the amount of cash flowing into other asset classes such as stocks and equities. Inflation and Labour Market Data August PPI is expected to be released with a forecast of 0.3%. This measure reflects inflation pressures faced by producers, which may flow through to consumers over the following months. Initial jobless claims will also be announced and will be a key data point for the Federal Reserve as it assesses

Straits of Trump war is escalating. Looks like conflict beibg notched up again.  Perhaps it is a good thing the market is not open on Monday?

Interest rates on government bonds are rising again, making borrowings more expensive for consumers and businesses. It also heightens concerns about whether governments are issuing more debt than financial markets can handle? Rising bond yields are one of the few forces in the world strong enough to get politicians to snap to attention. They can also have a big impact on US citizens’ personal finances and on the broader US economy. The bond market can dictate (a) how much ordinary people have to pay on their mortgages and car loans, as well as (b) how much consumers earn from their savings accounts and 401(k) plans (that is equivalent to Singapore's CPF Investment Scheme (CPFIS). Gradual bubble up of Treasury yields. With fig

I’d choose C for now. A 20%+ one-day drop looks tempting, but the biggest issue isn’t valuation—it’s the uncertainty around wildfire liabilities and the Wildfire Fund. I’d rather wait for more clarity before treating $PG&E Corp(PCG)$ or $Edison(EIX)$ as a genuine defensive play. I still like the utility sector for its relatively stable cash flows, but I wouldn’t assume all utilities carry the same risk. $Utilities Select Sector SPDR

For the week ending 28 Aug 2026, US 3 major composite indexes closed moderately higher despite a late-week selloff. (see below) 3 Composite Indexes performances: DJIA : Ticked up +0.56% (+298.04 to 53,559.99). S&P 500: Advanced +0.63% (+48.38 to 7,711.76). Nasdaq: Led the weekly gains, rising +1.29% (+337.10 to 26,402.42). Trading volume. Trading volume during the week remained relatively muted, continuing a late-summer trend. On the heavier-volume days like Thursday & Friday, roughly 14.9 billion shares changed hands across US exchanges. This volume marked a slight contraction or stayed flat compared to the previous week's average, well below Wall Street's 20-session trading volume average of 16.3 - 16.6 billion shares. Catalysts for the week. The week was driven by a tug-of-war b

Global climate shifts and severe weather events pose clear macroeconomic hurdles. As nations realign fiscal priorities for infrastructure resilience and disaster recovery, the financial toll of environmental volatility grows. Managing portfolio risk means evaluating how resource scarcity, supply chain cracks, and evolving rules hit corporate and sovereign stability. $Lion-OSPL Low Carbon S$(ESG.SI)$   $Alerian MLP ETF(AMLP)$   A neutral approach prioritizes diversification into sectors actively managing transition risks. Allocating toward adaptive infrastructure, resource efficiency, and reliable energy corridors helps curb climate-policy volatility. This measured stance preserves liquidity wh

All is fair. Just a game.

I prefer monitoring actual Strait of Hormuz transit volume before aggressively buying energy names. Geopolitical spikes often produce sharp short-term volatility in spot oil (Brent breaking $90), but energy equities like XLE tend to wait for confirmation of sustained physical supply disruptions or longer-term higher average oil prices. Until real transit flow is impacted, hedging via short-dated oil options might be safer than locking into equities.

I’d choose C — wait until the wildfire liability rules become clearer. PCG and EIX look tempting after falling more than 20%, but I don’t think this is a simple “buy the dip” situation. The core problem is not whether these companies are profitable today; it is the uncertainty around future wildfire liabilities and whether California’s Wildfire Fund will have a sustainable replenishment mechanism. A stock can become cheaper while its risk premium is rising at the same time. That is exactly what I see here. Until the rules become clearer, PCG and EIX could remain highly sensitive to headlines, legal developments and financing costs. If I wanted utility exposure now, I’d prefer XLU or VPU for diversification. For individual California utilities, I’d rather sacrifice the first part of a rebo

Direct Commodity vs. Equity Hedging: If you are seeking pure exposure to geopolitical risk, crude futures or commodity ETFs (like USO or DBO) offer direct alignment. Energy equities (XLE) reflect long-term corporate cash flows, refining margins, and broader equity market sentiment rather than instantaneous barrel prices. Tactical Approach: Avoid chasing the initial spike in spot oil. Wait for confirmation of persistent chokepoint disruptions before placing aggressive upside bets on upstream producers.

it's all emotional trade caused by media . The real action from institution is obvious, buy now and follow the train

Hormuz Watch: Tracking actual vessel traffic and freight insurance rates through Hormuz provides a clearer signal than headline noise. Real supply bottlenecks beat geopolitical rhetoric every time.

Hello. After Warsh spoke on Friday, one estimate put the odds of a September rate rise at 60 per cent. Over the weekend US forces struck Iran and Brent crude went above US$90. Dearer oil makes inflation harder to hold down. But this particular fire is burning on the supply side, where a rate rise will not put it out and will press on demand as well. In three days, September became a harder question. This was Warsh's first appearance at Jackson Hole as chair. He restated the commitment to holding inflation down, and coverage rated the speech "moderately hawkish". He made clear he was not offering forward guidance; a former Fed vice chair said he had given it anyway. The market took him at his word: the two-year Treasury yield jumped, spot gold fell from US$4,649.60 last Thursday to US$4,478