Gold Breaks Below $4,000! Will We See $3500?

Gold fell approximately 1.4%, with spot prices breaching the $4,000 level. Bears argue that rebounding real yields and cooling geopolitics will pressure prices further, with $3,900 as the next technical support; bulls maintain that persistent central bank buying and de-dollarization trends keep the long-term thesis intact, viewing sub-$4,000 as a medium-term accumulation zone. Tactically, aggressive traders may scale in near $3,900 with tight stops, while conservative investors should await stabilization signals before re-entering. Will you buy this gold dip, or step aside and wait?

GOLD: The Overarching Trend of Gold Remains Bullish

1 The past week saw a dramatic tug-of-war between bulls and bears in the global gold market. Gold opened at $4346 on Monday (August 11th), surging to a two-month high near $4450 mid-week. However, profit-taking led to a sharp 1.3% drop on Thursday, and further declines to a weekly low near $4310 on Friday. Just when bears thought they had the upper hand, unexpectedly weak US retail sales data reversed the tide, resulting in a textbook V-shaped reversal for gold prices, ultimately closing at $4375.80, a weekly gain of approximately 0.8%. The weekly swing of approximately 140 points resulted in a bullish weekly candlestick with a long lower shadow, demonstrating the resilience of the bulls. This was a result of cooling US economic data, expectations of a Fed rate cut, and escalating geopolit
GOLD: The Overarching Trend of Gold Remains Bullish

Why Gold Is Diverging from Real Rates—and Could Trigger a Second U.S. Equity Pullback 💹📉

Recent capital markets can be summed up in one word: conflicted. On one side, gold has charted an entirely independent course despite the pressure of high interest rates. On the other, U.S. equities have repeatedly swung between earnings support and the risks associated with elevated valuations. Against this macro backdrop, how should investors construct an appropriate trading strategy? Today, we will examine the underlying logic behind gold and expectations for a range-bound U.S. equity market, and take an in-depth look at how the market is operating at present.   Pay Attention to the Unusual Divergence Between Gold and U.S. Real Rates For a long time, gold and real interest rates—bond yields adjusted for inflation—have had a classic seesaw relationship. Because gold is a non-yieldin
Why Gold Is Diverging from Real Rates—and Could Trigger a Second U.S. Equity Pullback 💹📉

Why I Think Gold Is the Biggest Opportunity Right Now: The Most Critical Price Levels to Watch!

The long-awaited breakout in gold’s rebound finally arrived last week. With a 7% gain in a single week, gold quickly achieved the measured target of its daily-chart double-bottom breakout. The question now is whether the rebound can continue—and, if so, where the next major resistance levels may emerge. To answer that question, we should first compare the price action of gold futures and spot gold. After the front-month futures contract rolled over to December, the time-related premium created a spread of roughly 1.5%, or approximately $60–$70, between futures and spot prices. More importantly, futures have already broken out of the descending channel that had been in place since the beginning of the year, while spot gold has yet to make a similar breakout. In the spot market, the key resi
Why I Think Gold Is the Biggest Opportunity Right Now: The Most Critical Price Levels to Watch!

Has the Semiconductor Sell-Off Bottomed? Smart Money May Pivots to Gold!

Following last week's historic sell-off, the U.S. stock market—particularly the semiconductor sector—is standing at an extremely critical crossroads. It is no exaggeration to say that if the market takes even one more step downward, it will likely trigger a substantial, weekly-level decline. However, if the market can hold its ground against the current downtrend and stabilize, a phased recovery is not far out of reach, especially if tensions in the US-Iran conflict continue to cool. Therefore, this week's price action is of paramount importance to U.S. equities. At this critical juncture, since we cannot precisely forecast geopolitical developments, relying on technical analysis and real capital flow data to gauge market sentiment becomes essential. Today, Owen's analysis will delve deep
Has the Semiconductor Sell-Off Bottomed? Smart Money May Pivots to Gold!

Gold : Double Retest at Support — Cautious Recovery Within a Downtrend

SPDR Gold Shares ( $GLD US$(O87.SI)$ ) tracks the price of gold bullion, offering Singapore investors direct exposure to gold through a locally listed ETF. It is one of the most actively traded gold-linked instruments on the SGX. Daily Chart: Downtrend Intact, but Price Finds Footing at Support Since January 2026, O87 has been forming lower highs and lower lows — a textbook downtrend market structure.  However, price has found support near the previous major low around $361-362 and has stabilised in this area. Notably, O87 has retested this support zone on two separate occasions — once around mid-June and again in mid-July — holding above it each time without a decisive breakdown. This does not signal a reversal. But it does suggest that se
Gold : Double Retest at Support — Cautious Recovery Within a Downtrend

US Stocks Under a Strong Dollar: Defensive Positioning with Options and Short Strategies

In a stock market environment with ambiguous directionality and persistent consolidation, capital flow data often serves as the primary reference indicator for traders because these data are more authentic than sentiment. In last week's market liquidity data, we discovered: capital is accelerating its flight from US stocks, especially the seven major tech stocks tracked by Goldman Sachs, where the traces of institutional capital withdrawal are already quite clear. Moreover, the overall net capital flow of individual US stocks is once again showing an expanding outflow. In the latest weekly data of institutional capital inflows and outflows for major seats compiled by Goldman Sachs, massive amounts of capital are fleeing US tech stocks, particularly the 7 star tech stocks:
US Stocks Under a Strong Dollar: Defensive Positioning with Options and Short Strategies

GOLD: Bullish Momentum for Gold Remains Extremely Strong

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you! $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$$Gold - main 2612(GCmain)$ Technical Analysis: Bullish momentum for gold (XAUUSD) remains extremely strong, with the price hitting an intraday high of $4,433.94. Gold is currently firmly above all moving averages, and every pullback to the MA5 or MA10 has turned into a rapid buying opportunity for bulls! The price has evolved from a base near 4,000, through a steady rise after breaking above 4,200, to the current accelerated phase of the main uptrend following the break above 4,400. The overarching trend continues to adhere to the core principle of “buying on dips in the t
GOLD: Bullish Momentum for Gold Remains Extremely Strong

Gold Below $4,000! To Everyone Who Bought the Peak: How Are You Holding Up?

Gold has broken down. On Wednesday, $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ fell below the $4,000/oz level for the first time since November 2025. From the record high of $5,594 reached in January, gold has now fallen nearly 29%. London gold tells a similar story. In just 30 trading days, it dropped from around 4,700 to 3,980, a decline of roughly 16%. Although prices rebounded modestly today, with $GLD$ trading around $368, the overall trend has clearly turned lower. Just two weeks ago, when we were discussing DBS's tokenized gold product, gold was still comfortably above 4,500. Now it's already below 4,000. Why Did Gold Collapse So Quickly? Higher rates. Stronger dollar. The historic rally throughout 2025 was built on one core assumption
Gold Below $4,000! To Everyone Who Bought the Peak: How Are You Holding Up?

Strong Dollar Returns: After Booking the Straddle Win,Why Treasuries Deserve Our Focus

A recent string of mismatches between macro data and capital flows has revealed a new direction for the rotation across global asset classes. After deeply reviewing the latest non-farm payrolls (NFP) data, the U.S. Dollar Index, the yen's trajectory, and U.S. equity fund flows, I want to discuss a new trading thesis that may differ from what many people think: the pressure that a rising Dollar Index puts on global equities is not over. Bottom-fishing is not currently suitable for U.S. stocks, but it may be relatively suitable for U.S. Treasuries. Why do I say this? To sum up my current logic chain: although over the past week the Dollar Index staged a pullback at its major resistance around 101.3, judging from the performance of the yen — the dollar's second-largest counterpart — and the t
Strong Dollar Returns: After Booking the Straddle Win,Why Treasuries Deserve Our Focus

Futures Weekly: Equities Cool, Bonds Heat Up While Gold Falls Out of Favour

Over the past week, renewed military clashes between the United States and Iran have shaken global equity markets, while gold has retreated sharply from recent highs and overall risk appetite has come under pressure. The situation on the ground remains highly uncertain, with persistent geopolitical tensions interacting with shifting macro expectations; most investors are adopting a cautious stance, waiting for subsequent key U.S. economic data releases in order to better gauge the Federal Reserve’s policy path and the trajectory of asset prices. As of around 4:00 p.m. on 12 June 2026, the weekly performance of major assets is as follows: In an environment where macro expectations are oscillating, looking at price moves alone is no longer sufficient to capture the main drivers of asset perf
Futures Weekly: Equities Cool, Bonds Heat Up While Gold Falls Out of Favour
avatarJC888
06-26

All that glitters still GOLD ? GDXJ the Answer?

Gold is still wearing the crown. (period !) However, the market has just been taught a lesson and reminded (everyone) that even a runaway bull can stumble hard. On Wed, 24 Jun 2026, Spot gold prices were sharply lower after the close on Wednesday, as (a) a firmer US dollar, (b) aggressive post-Fed’s interest rate repricing and (c) easing oil-supply fears outweighed residual haven demand tied to the US-Iran situation. Spot gold plummeted more than -3% during the day, struggling to hold the psychologically significant $4,000 mark and trading around $3,980.20 per ounce (with spot gold settling near $3,998.00 at the time of Kitco post composition). (see below) The broad selloff pushed gold futures to their lowest level since November 2025, mirroring broader weakness across other (i) rate-sensi
All that glitters still GOLD ? GDXJ the Answer?

War Reignites Between the US and Iran: How Do You Trade Futures Short-Term? (Recent Returns Revealed

Last time I talked with you about this week's options strategy: besides continuing to run the index options straddle into rallies, one could also consider going long U.S. Treasuries on dips — especially the price of the long-bond TLT. But on Treasuries, as of today, after the escalation of the U.S.–Iran war, everyone needs to be more careful: rising crude oil drives inflation expectations higher, which could push Treasury yields up further, and Treasury prices would then face downward pressure. So we can lift the stop-loss on the buy-the-dip Treasury view a bit higher — up to near the prior-low support around $83.5. Review:Strong Dollar Returns: After Booking the Straddle Win,Why Treasuries Deserv
War Reignites Between the US and Iran: How Do You Trade Futures Short-Term? (Recent Returns Revealed
avatarkazzie
08-13
hi this is such a cool and great insight

Weak Nonfarm, Fading Rate Hike Bets — Is Gold Ready for a Rebound?

The start of each month is usually the key window for the release of the U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) data, so at the beginning of every month many people tend to see sizable swings in their investment accounts. This is because the NFP data often reshapes the market's expectations for the future economy, which in turn changes the price direction of related financial products. Last week's NFP data came in contrary to market expectations: the market had originally anticipated a figure of more than 100,000 new jobs, but the actual result was an increase of only 57,000. A slowdown in job gains indicates that the economy is not as “hot” as expected, which reduces the necessity for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. As a result, since the data was released, the market has sharply lower
Weak Nonfarm, Fading Rate Hike Bets — Is Gold Ready for a Rebound?

Red Alert! The Dollar Just Broke Out—How to Bulletproof Your Stock Portfolio Now!

The current US financial market has flashed a very strong red warning signal: a strong dollar may return, and the US Dollar Index (DXY) is likely to experience a short-to-medium-term impulsive upward rally in the near future. From a technical perspective in the futures market, the DXY has broken through crucial resistance levels. Following the typical price action rules of a "head and shoulders bottom" pattern, the dollar's rise could mirror the previous decline in crude oil, triggering an impulsive upward trend of significant magnitude: $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$ $Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund(UDN)$ $Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund(UUP)$</
Red Alert! The Dollar Just Broke Out—How to Bulletproof Your Stock Portfolio Now!

The Downtrend Isn't Over, But a Rebound Window Is Opening: July Opportunities for Bitcoin and Ethere

Amidst the current macroeconomic environment where AI and related sectors are stealing the spotlight, the performance of crypto assets this year has been exceptionally weak, failing to capture any upward momentum. The reality is that in the realm of narrative-driven assets, Bitcoin's history and storytelling capabilities are just as strong as any other asset. However, once expectations are overdrawn and fail to materialize, a return to reality is inevitable. Nevertheless, after a sustained decline, the likelihood of a short-term stabilization and a corrective rebound is increasing. $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2609(ESmain)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2609(NQmain)$
The Downtrend Isn't Over, But a Rebound Window Is Opening: July Opportunities for Bitcoin and Ethere

Why I Continue Investing in IAU Gold and sell covered calls up by $20

A Long-Term Investor’s Mindset 🏆 Looking at my portfolio, I am currently up about US$25 overall on my IAU Gold Trust position. The unrealized loss on my shares is larger, but over the past months I have recovered a significant portion of that through consistently selling covered calls. To many investors, seeing a red number may be discouraging, but I see it differently. $IAU 20260702 85.5 CALL$  I remind myself that an unrealized loss is only temporary unless I decide to sell my shares. As long as I continue to own IAU and believe in the long-term investment thesis for gold, temporary fluctuations are simply part of investing. Instead of worrying about the daily market price, I focus on generating regular income while
Why I Continue Investing in IAU Gold and sell covered calls up by $20

From Rate Cuts to Rate Hikes? Will the Fed's Hawkish Pivot Crash the Market?

After Warsh replaced Powell as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, expectations and rumors regarding an interest rate hike within the year have persisted. The substantial inflationary pressure brought about by the outbreak of the war in the Middle East has already forced multiple central banks to opt for rate hikes in response, and there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will not go against this trend. However, looking at history, a rate hike does not signify an inevitable change in the trend; more often than not, other external crises are required to trigger a reversal in the market's trajectory. According to the latest FedWatch data, the probability of maintaining the current interest rate level at the Federal Reserve's year-end meeting is only 22%, while the combined prob
From Rate Cuts to Rate Hikes? Will the Fed's Hawkish Pivot Crash the Market?

Selling Puts in U.S. Stock Market May Remains Optimal; Beware Gold’s Final Leg Down

Our two prior key calls now appear to have largely played out: First, the pullback in U.S. equities from elevated levels would likely remain within an 8% range; second, crude oil had most likely topped, with WTI futures expected to retest the $65 level in the near term. Review:Oil Plunges, Undercurrents Thrive? June 19 Deal Could Flip — Option Strategy to Capture Time Value Red Alert! The Dollar Just Broke Out—How to Bulletproof Your Stock Portfolio Now! Many market participants have attributed last night’s strong rebound in U.S. equities to Micron’s better-than-expected earnings. However, it is important to recognize that Micron’s results merely act
Selling Puts in U.S. Stock Market May Remains Optimal; Beware Gold’s Final Leg Down

Why Gold breaking below $4,000 is important

$Gold - main 2608(GCmain)$ has finally cracked below the psychological $4,000 level. Gold Futures Monthly Chart For months, gold was treated like the untouchable safe-haven trade. It had the perfect storm behind it: inflation fears, geopolitical tension, central-bank buying, de-dollarization narratives, and retail demand. But markets do not move in straight lines forever. Now gold is facing a colder question: Was the move above $4,000 a new floor, or just the top floor of an overcrowded trade? The answer matters because gold’s latest drop is not just about one bad trading day. It is about a shift in what investors are prioritizing. When fear was rising, gold was king. Now that real yields are rebounding, the dollar is firming, and geopolitical
Why Gold breaking below $4,000 is important