Disclaimer: Nothing I say or post should be considered financial advice. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Lets see if US gets bankrupt first or Iran will give in on US terms. Ultimately no one will emerge as a clear winner for sure. @PawsAndProfits - Specialist in combining FA and TA for Options selling and Swing trading.[666] 

Since April 9, developments between the United States and Iran have broadly followed a pattern of “ceasefire implementation and advancing negotiations, but fragile execution and unresolved disagreements.” After the two-week temporary ceasefire entered the implementation stage, the Strait of Hormuz nominally resumed limited shipping, yet the actual volume of vessel traffic remained extremely low, suggesting that maritime tensions had not genuinely eased. Then, on April 10 and 11, the United States and Iran held high-level talks in Islamabad, discussing sanctions arrangements, ceasefire boundaries, and navigation through the strait. Despite the lengthy discussions, however, no substantive breakthrough was achieved. From April 13 to 15, there were brief expectations that the ceasefire might b

On the week of April 7, the latest Commitment of Traders (CFTC) data release from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission immediately ignited market discussions: stock index futures saw intensified multi-force tug-of-war, crude oil longs staged a strong comeback, while precious metals like gold saw funds quietly exiting. This isn't random volatility—it's a clear signal of big money "rotating tracks"! Want to know who's adding positions and who's retreating? Read this article, and you'll easily grasp the market's next rhythm. Commitment of Traders Report Basics: The "Three Keys" to CFTC Data The CFTC Commitment of Traders report is like the market's "sentiment barometer," released every Friday with Tuesday's futures position data to reveal true capital intentions. No worries

Disclaimer: Nothing I say or post should be considered financial advice. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Let’s see how Kevin Warsh is going to handle his first FOMC meeting and announcement. With heated inflation numbers and high expectation that interest rate will remain the same, maybe its already reflected in the stock market, with tech stocks having a sharp correction heading into the close today. Is the conflict between Iran and USA really over? With Israel clearly unhappy with the terms agreed, there might be room for some last minute drama. And who do you think is the real winner out of this peace deal? I personally think its Iran. US wasted so much money and ammunition, ended up still gave in a peace deal that award the US bragging rights an

Disclaimer: Nothing I say or post should be considered financial advice. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Kevin Warsh and his team decide to maintain rates, which is largely in line with market expectations. However, he did announce that there would be no more forward guidance. This means we will no longer know what will happen at the next fed announcement until it happens.  Think the mag 7 companies didnt like this news and was red for a bit, although they did recover slightly towards closing. As a retail investor, I am not thrilled by the removal of forward guidance as I will be stripped off one financial indicator. However, it is not the end of the world and the investment journey goes on.  To end this post with a classic Trump move, poi

There is a Chinese saying - yue miao yue hei (see above) when translated literally it means “the more you try to explain or touch up a matter, the darker it becomes". Actual meaning suggests - attempting to justify a mistake only makes it more obvious or creates further misunderstanding, similar to "making matters worse" or a cover-up. That was exactly when transpired on 01 April 2026 at 9pm ET (or 02 Apr 2026, 9am Singapore time) when Trump addressed US citizens about Iran invasion. Evening Address - Overall. Instead of providing clear answers, Trump’s speech made investors more worried about the risks of war, causing markets to drop in response. As of 02 Apr 2026 - 5pm Singapore time Oil spiked, Asian equities fell, and US futures for the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq all turned lower as

From my friend “Tiger Capital Research” Morning Brief | Overnight Important Developments on June 22 1. The first round of US-Iran negotiations did not discuss the issue of Iran's nuclear program; 2. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 61.5%; 3. Trump said the US might collect 20% of the oil revenue in the Middle East; 4. Canton Strategic launched a $50 million stock buyback plan; 5. Bitfinex report: Bitcoin shows a market structure of "selling pressure paused but buying interest unconfirmed"; 6. Forbes: Funds from crypto super PACs have started pouring into the 2026 US primary elections; 7. The Iranian delegation has left the negotiation venue, but negotiations with the US are still continuing through intermediaries.

Peace At Last ? Its just as well that there were not too many US economic reports out for the week ending 10 Apr 2026. This is because the Middle East was on the brink of civilization annihilation when Trump almost made good his scarce tactics to level Iran flat. Perhaps it was all the behind the scenes, flurry of activities that helped to successfully brokered the 2-week truce while the tripartite of US, Pakistan and Iran try to work out a lasting peace proposal acceptable to all parties. It was this “peace” deal that help US market to turnaround for better or almost for worse. This is not even considered a “work-in-progress” as both sides are still searching for the common ground to agree upon. Nevertheless, while the peace deal’s details are being sorted out, US economic reports continu

At present, global risk appetite across risk assets is still mainly driven by U.S. equities. As the marginal impact of Federal Reserve commentary has faded, the absolute dominant force shaping market sentiment remains the progress of the U.S.-Iran war. $标普500(.SPX)$ $标普500ETF(SPY)$ $SP500指数主连 2606(ESmain)$ $微型SP500指数主连 2606(MESmain)$ $微型SP500指数2606(MES2606)$ Why do we say the Fed’s commentary has become less influential at the margin? The reason is simple. First, there is no certainty that the so-called new chair, Warsh, will actually be able to take office smoothly

In fact, the two week window of de-escalation in the conflict has long been priced into capital market movements. Although a week ago the US and Iran were still trading harsh rhetoric, with the US even threatening to destroy Iranian civilization, after all that saber-rattling you may have noticed that crude oil did not register a new high. Moreover, the US one-year inflation expectations – which typically spike along with crude oil – and the 10-year Treasury yield – which is most sensitive to US equity moves – remained remarkably calm：  $美国10年期国债收益率(US10Y.BOND)$ $3倍做空7-10年期国债ETF-Direxion(TYO)$ $20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares(TLT)$    In fact, the 10-yea

This session focused on how the U.S.-Iran situation may affect oil, gold, U.S. stocks, the dollar, Treasuries, and crypto under different scenarios, with special attention to the key one- to three-week window ahead.Guest Speaker: Cheng Jun (CME Guest Lecturer with more than 10 years of margin trading experience, specializing in gold and FX trading through a combination of macro analysis and Demark technical analysis)Course Link1. The current market narrative is still primarily driven by changes in the geopolitical situationMost assets are still following the same pattern: they come under pressure when tensions rise and rebound whe

Iran has slammed the door on immediate negotiations, with Tasnim agency reporting no plans to send a team to meet the US in Pakistan as long as the American naval blockade remains in place. 😤 This comes just hours after Trump announced the planned meeting, turning what was hoped to be a diplomatic off-ramp into a sharper escalation that keeps the Strait of Hormuz under heavy pressure and global oil flows at risk. The standoff is now a direct test of wills — Trump’s “execution strategy” versus Iran’s refusal to negotiate under duress — and markets are already feeling the heat as the risk premium on energy and safe-haven assets spikes again. With the blockade still active, supply disruption fears are back in focus, potentially adding 7-11 million barrels per day of lost flows if tanker traff

$Boeing(BA)$ is scheduled to release its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings tomorrow, Wednesday, April 22, 2026, before the market opens. The stock has faced recent pressure, sliding roughly 3.4% last week following disclosures of wiring rework on the 737 MAX, which has shifted some expected Q1 deliveries into Q2. This makes the upcoming call critical for clarifying whether this is a minor timing issue or a broader production hurdle. Q1 2026 Consensus Estimates Revenue: Expected at approximately $21.92 billion (a ~12.7% YoY increase). Earnings Per Share (EPS): Estimated at -$0.84 (an improvement from the -$1.13 reported in Q1 2025). Implied Move: Options markets are currently pricing in a significant swing, consistent with BA's history of post-earnings volatil

"History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes." — Mark Twain Trump threats that “a whole civilization will die tonight”. $WTI Crude Oil - main 2605(CLmain)$ roars to $115. One year ago today: the day the market broke April 7, 2025. The "tariff" announcement hit like a lightning bolt. What followed wasn't just a selloff. It was a waterfall. Screens flashed red. Then came April 9th — just 48 hours later. Trump announced a 90-day tariff pause for countries that hadn't retaliated. The market's reaction was immediate and historic: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ posted its biggest single-day gain since 2008. $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ surged over 12% in one session. Those who had

US-Iran Ceasefire: Oil Volatility vs. Risk Appetite Brent surged to ~$99.35/bbl (+63.24% YTD), with back-months pricing a sustained Hormuz disruption premium while front-month prints hover near $94–$95. The $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ climbed to 19.50 as US equities sold off ( $S&P 500(.SPX)$ -0.63%, $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ -0.59%). For Hong Kong positioning, this creates a sharpened binary: failure = oil gaps toward $100+, energy names rally ( $CNOOC(00883)$ , $PETROCHINA(00857)$ , $CHINA SHENHUA(01088)$ reporting Friday) but broad ris

The US-Iran standoff has taken another sharp turn, with Iran refusing another round of talks citing ongoing pressure tactics, while Trump stated he is willing to meet senior Iranian leaders if talks can produce a “breakthrough.” At the same time, a US delegation including JD Vance is reportedly heading to Islamabad on April 20 for potential indirect discussions. Yet Reuters data shows shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains near a standstill, with only three vessel crossings in 12 hours — confirming the blockade’s real-world impact and keeping global oil flows under severe pressure. Markets opened under pressure today as oil jumped 4%, reflecting the tug-of-war between diplomatic signals and the physical chokepoint reality. The chart of daily vessel transits paints a stark picture: t

The two-week negotiation window between the United States and Iran has come to an end. Over the past two weeks, market expectations were highly optimistic—U.S. equities surged, and oil prices declined. Unfortunately, as the deadline arrived, weekend news suggested that the two sides failed to reach an agreement. The final outcome will only be confirmed once a formal agreement is signed. In any case, the key signal remains unchanged: when the strait is fully reopened, that will mark the true end of this event. All other news is merely noise. There were earlier rumors suggesting that the U.S. proposed the two-week negotiation period as a cover to deploy additional military forces. If this proves true, further escalation of conflict cannot be ruled out. Investors should remain vigilant. I. Ca

Last Week's Recap 1. U.S. Market Summary: Stocks Snap 5-Week Slide as Oil Surges to $112 Relief rally: Major U.S. indexes gained 3–4% last week, snapping a five-week losing streak. Resurgent oil: U.S. crude climbed to ~$112/barrel Friday—highest since mid-2022—amid escalating Strait of Hormuz tensions. Golden rebound: $Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$ recovered March losses, rising nearly 4% to trade around $4,700 on last friday. Yields reverse course: Treasury yields slipped after four weeks of gains that pushed 10-year rates to eight-month highs. March decline: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ fell ~5% in March for back-to-back monthly losses;