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22 minutes ago

三星制定“三阶段HBM路线图”：迈向真正的3D ZHBM，将DRAM直接堆叠在计算芯片上

三星制定“三阶段HBM路线图”：迈向真正的3D ZHBM，将DRAM直接堆叠在计算芯片上

40 minutes ago

高盛：AI动能衰退，欧日银行股与黄金股等硬资产成下一轮交易主线

高盛：AI动能衰退，欧日银行股与黄金股等硬资产成下一轮交易主线

52 minutes ago

AI开发者平台Hugging Face寻求出售，估值或超130亿美元

AI开发者平台Hugging Face寻求出售，估值或超130亿美元

User Discussion

步步高升668

08-16

R/s wow I think the the e

Behind the AI debt frenzy: $70 billion of off-balance sheet hidden liabilities raises concerns among bond investors

08-05

🙈

AMD's best financial report in history, in exchange for a 9% plunge: what the market wants is not good, but acceleration

07-25

who YOLO, this time YOLO[得意]

"YOLO" retail investors anti-quilt! Momentum factor hit the biggest pullback/retracement in four years, and the hottest group stocks evaporated by 25% in one month

大浪淘沙懒洋洋

07-19

🐮🍺

Reach out to South Korean chip giants again: SK Hynix and Samsung's "excess profits" may need to be shared with the United States

05-26

MU already price in 2027

Sorry, the original content has been removed

05-08

1

Before Bubble Mart's earnings report, Deutsche Bank shouted to sell: overseas cooling, domestic exhaustion, and the whole year may turn negative growth

05-08

Q

Before Bubble Mart's earnings report, Deutsche Bank shouted to sell: overseas cooling, domestic exhaustion, and the whole year may turn negative growth

长期主义的Cooper

05-08

1

Before Bubble Mart's earnings report, Deutsche Bank shouted to sell: overseas cooling, domestic exhaustion, and the whole year may turn negative growth

05-08

1

"TACO" is out of date and Wall Street flooded with "NACHO" deals!

05-08

g

TSMC's revenue rose 17.5% year-on-year in April, and AI demand supported full-year expansion momentum

04-07

Nice to know

The Other Side of Altman: Lies, Schemes and Trillion Bets

04-07

Mark

IEA warns: The energy shock in the Gulf exceeds the combined intensity of 1973, 1979 and 2022, and the global economy is entering "Black April"!

04-06

mark

The most exciting "research"? "Online celebrity AI Research Institute": Public data missed 50% of Hormuz's real traffic

04-05

Wow

AI computing power is fatally injured! Broadcom Director Names "Three Bottlenecks", Capacity Gap Fears to Last Until 2027

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investors","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2659179770","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"随着英伟达宣布5000亿美元AI融资合作，债券市场对AI公司约700亿美元表外债务的担忧骤然升温。这一结构允许英伟达、博通等芯片巨头为客户债务兜底，却无需将负债计入自身账表。多家机构警告这是顺周期的金融工程，一旦行业下行将集中引爆风险。","content":"<p><html><body>The AI chip financing boom has spawned a new off-balance sheet guarantee structure that has reached $70 billion, and the bond market is struggling with how to price this hidden risk.</p><p>As Bloomberg reported on Aug. 15, just before<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>The announcement of the $500 billion financing partnership comes after bond investors have begun to feel uneasy about the approximately $70 billion of \"ghost liabilities\" off the balance sheets of major AI companies. These contingent liabilities are usually unobtrusive, but they may suddenly be cashed out at the worst of times.</p><p>The carrier of these liabilities is a type called \"<strong>Residual Value Guarantee</strong>\"(Residual Value Guarantee, RVG), which may amount up to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBAY\">tens of billions</a>Dollars. The essence of this mechanism is that Nvidia uses its strong credit rating to endorse customers' financing and help customers lower their borrowing costs.</p><p><h2>How this structure works</h2>The typical structure is divided into three layers: a special purpose carrier (SPV) borrows money to buy chips, and the borrowing is supported by the cash flow of contracts signed by companies using the technology; If the company ceases to make payments, the asset will be re-leased or sold to repay the remaining debt; If there is still a shortfall, the \"guarantor\" will make up the shortfall.</p><p><ol><li>A special purpose carrier (SPV) borrows money to buy chips;</li><li>The borrowing is supported by the contractual cash flow of an AI company;</li><li>If the AI company stops paying, the chip is subleased or sold to repay the debt;</li><li>If there is still a gap,<strong>The guarantor (chip manufacturer) shall make up the difference</strong>。</li></ol>This is the \"residual value guarantee\"-the chip seller acts as the last person.</p><p>To Nvidia,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">Broadcom</a>For this kind of chip giant, this structure is a \"cost-effective deal\": it helps customers reduce financing costs and expand sales, and does not record any debts on their books.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>In its document, it stated directly: \"The probability of payment by the RVG guarantor is not high and therefore no liability has been recorded to date.\"</p><p>Although the \"probability is not high\", it is increasingly difficult to convince the market.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600455\">Broadcom</a>This logic is extended to the field of chip financing. In the project codenamed \"Big Sky\", Broadcom guaranteed a $35 billion debt transaction — Apollo Global Management and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BX\">Blackstone</a>Investors such as the Group contributed to the purchase of customized AI chips and then leased them to Anthropic for use. This arrangement gives senior debt an investment grade rating and the cost of funding decreases.</p><p>Unlike data center deals that span decades, chip financing cycles are shorter and typically amortized in about five years to match the pace of rapid depreciation of technology. This means that guarantee exposure narrows rapidly over time, giving lenders a relatively clear exit horizon.</p><p><h2>Nvidia enters the market, the scale may jump again</h2>Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, posted on the X platform that the company may provide a residual value support mechanism of up to 25% for related opportunities, \"case-by-case evaluation\".</p><p>\"Our role is to help unlock a large pool of independent capital while maintaining disciplined exposure,\" he wrote.</p><p>Nvidia said that the cooperation aims to introduce external capital and alleviate the problem of \"revolving financing\"-that is, the closed-loop dilemma of AI companies contributing to each other's products. The six U.S. investment institutions involved in the $500 billion financing include<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>。</p><p>Broadcom's AI XPV platform is an extension of the \"Big Sky\" deal, which Bank of America strategists estimate could accumulate $370 billion in senior debt by mid-2029. This means that the potential size of off-balance sheet guarantees goes far beyond that.</p><p><h2>Ratings agencies have issued warnings</h2>Ratings agencies are not indifferent to this.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCO\">Moody's</a>\"The main risk is that such transactions will occur intensively in the short term,\" wrote a note. \"We believe that a substantial increase in Broadcom's potential obligations, even if the leverage ratio of its existing debt remains low, will limit Broadcom's financial flexibility and may put a strain on the company's credit profile.\"</p><p>Moody's also pointed out that Broadcom's guarantee for third-party leases \"partially offset its strong business advantage\", but more guarantees will have a negative impact.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPGI\">S&P Global</a>The rating characterized the residual value support provided by Broadcom as \"contingent debt obligation\" and said that this part would be included in the adjusted debt calculation.</p><p>Under U.S. Accounting Standards, businesses typically only include contingent liabilities in their balance sheets when the loss is \"probable and can be reasonably estimated\", otherwise they only need to be disclosed in the notes to the financial statements. This is the institutional basis on which these liabilities are kept off the books.</p><p><h2>Investors: Financial engineering is covering up real risks</h2>Bond investors' concerns focus on one point: When will these off-balance sheet contingent liabilities become true on-balance sheet losses?</p><p>Mariya Entina, portfolio manager at DoubleLine, bluntly said:</p><p><strong>It's like exploiting a loophole in the system and trying to get preferential treatment from rating agencies to get the highest possible rating…We are entering the age of financial engineering. This is one of my concerns: When you engage in financial engineering, you are covering up financial reality.</strong></p><p>CreditSights analysts compared Nvidia's residual support to \"selling a put\" in their report.</p><p>\"This is pro-cyclical and will exacerbate the boom-bust potential,\" they wrote. \"During a boom, this guarantee costs little; But in a severe, sharp downturn, it becomes most critical when customers default and the market value of hardware falls.\"</p><p>\"This is not your ordinary investment-grade credit underwriting,\" said Brian Gelfand, co-head of global credit at TCW. \"It's a lot more complicated than that. Given the off-balance sheet nature, the tail risk is on the high side.\"</p><p><h2>Others believe that worry is excessive</h2>Not everyone takes a pessimistic position.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JHG\">Janus Henderson</a>John Lloyd, global head of multi-sector and corporate credit at Investors, believes that triggering residual support requires extreme conditions: \"You have to see the growth rate of token usage fall off a cliff, and that's not what we are seeing at all.\"</p><p>He also noted that these companies \"are not trying to hide contingent liabilities, but are trying to finance them.\"</p><p>The logic of the proponents is: chip demand will continue to exceed supply for years to come; The debt structure is designed to be fully amortized over time, with decreasing potential costs backed by residual values; Technology risk ultimately falls on big tech companies that have enough cash to sustain losses.</p><p>But the rebuttal from critics is equally powerful: it is when the industry goes down that these guarantees are triggered, and that is precisely when chipmakers' own earnings are under pressure. Guarantee and risk are highly synchronized cyclically, which is the problem.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Behind the AI debt frenzy: $70 billion of off-balance sheet hidden liabilities raises concerns among bond investors</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBehind the AI debt frenzy: $70 billion of off-balance sheet hidden liabilities raises concerns among bond investors\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2026-08-16 09:08</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>The AI chip financing boom has spawned a new off-balance sheet guarantee structure that has reached $70 billion, and the bond market is struggling with how to price this hidden risk.</p><p>As Bloomberg reported on Aug. 15, just before<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>The announcement of the $500 billion financing partnership comes after bond investors have begun to feel uneasy about the approximately $70 billion of \"ghost liabilities\" off the balance sheets of major AI companies. These contingent liabilities are usually unobtrusive, but they may suddenly be cashed out at the worst of times.</p><p>The carrier of these liabilities is a type called \"<strong>Residual Value Guarantee</strong>\"(Residual Value Guarantee, RVG), which may amount up to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBAY\">tens of billions</a>Dollars. The essence of this mechanism is that Nvidia uses its strong credit rating to endorse customers' financing and help customers lower their borrowing costs.</p><p><h2>How this structure works</h2>The typical structure is divided into three layers: a special purpose carrier (SPV) borrows money to buy chips, and the borrowing is supported by the cash flow of contracts signed by companies using the technology; If the company ceases to make payments, the asset will be re-leased or sold to repay the remaining debt; If there is still a shortfall, the \"guarantor\" will make up the shortfall.</p><p><ol><li>A special purpose carrier (SPV) borrows money to buy chips;</li><li>The borrowing is supported by the contractual cash flow of an AI company;</li><li>If the AI company stops paying, the chip is subleased or sold to repay the debt;</li><li>If there is still a gap,<strong>The guarantor (chip manufacturer) shall make up the difference</strong>。</li></ol>This is the \"residual value guarantee\"-the chip seller acts as the last person.</p><p>To Nvidia,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">Broadcom</a>For this kind of chip giant, this structure is a \"cost-effective deal\": it helps customers reduce financing costs and expand sales, and does not record any debts on their books.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>In its document, it stated directly: \"The probability of payment by the RVG guarantor is not high and therefore no liability has been recorded to date.\"</p><p>Although the \"probability is not high\", it is increasingly difficult to convince the market.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600455\">Broadcom</a>This logic is extended to the field of chip financing. In the project codenamed \"Big Sky\", Broadcom guaranteed a $35 billion debt transaction — Apollo Global Management and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BX\">Blackstone</a>Investors such as the Group contributed to the purchase of customized AI chips and then leased them to Anthropic for use. This arrangement gives senior debt an investment grade rating and the cost of funding decreases.</p><p>Unlike data center deals that span decades, chip financing cycles are shorter and typically amortized in about five years to match the pace of rapid depreciation of technology. This means that guarantee exposure narrows rapidly over time, giving lenders a relatively clear exit horizon.</p><p><h2>Nvidia enters the market, the scale may jump again</h2>Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, posted on the X platform that the company may provide a residual value support mechanism of up to 25% for related opportunities, \"case-by-case evaluation\".</p><p>\"Our role is to help unlock a large pool of independent capital while maintaining disciplined exposure,\" he wrote.</p><p>Nvidia said that the cooperation aims to introduce external capital and alleviate the problem of \"revolving financing\"-that is, the closed-loop dilemma of AI companies contributing to each other's products. The six U.S. investment institutions involved in the $500 billion financing include<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>。</p><p>Broadcom's AI XPV platform is an extension of the \"Big Sky\" deal, which Bank of America strategists estimate could accumulate $370 billion in senior debt by mid-2029. This means that the potential size of off-balance sheet guarantees goes far beyond that.</p><p><h2>Ratings agencies have issued warnings</h2>Ratings agencies are not indifferent to this.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCO\">Moody's</a>\"The main risk is that such transactions will occur intensively in the short term,\" wrote a note. \"We believe that a substantial increase in Broadcom's potential obligations, even if the leverage ratio of its existing debt remains low, will limit Broadcom's financial flexibility and may put a strain on the company's credit profile.\"</p><p>Moody's also pointed out that Broadcom's guarantee for third-party leases \"partially offset its strong business advantage\", but more guarantees will have a negative impact.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPGI\">S&P Global</a>The rating characterized the residual value support provided by Broadcom as \"contingent debt obligation\" and said that this part would be included in the adjusted debt calculation.</p><p>Under U.S. Accounting Standards, businesses typically only include contingent liabilities in their balance sheets when the loss is \"probable and can be reasonably estimated\", otherwise they only need to be disclosed in the notes to the financial statements. This is the institutional basis on which these liabilities are kept off the books.</p><p><h2>Investors: Financial engineering is covering up real risks</h2>Bond investors' concerns focus on one point: When will these off-balance sheet contingent liabilities become true on-balance sheet losses?</p><p>Mariya Entina, portfolio manager at DoubleLine, bluntly said:</p><p><strong>It's like exploiting a loophole in the system and trying to get preferential treatment from rating agencies to get the highest possible rating…We are entering the age of financial engineering. This is one of my concerns: When you engage in financial engineering, you are covering up financial reality.</strong></p><p>CreditSights analysts compared Nvidia's residual support to \"selling a put\" in their report.</p><p>\"This is pro-cyclical and will exacerbate the boom-bust potential,\" they wrote. \"During a boom, this guarantee costs little; But in a severe, sharp downturn, it becomes most critical when customers default and the market value of hardware falls.\"</p><p>\"This is not your ordinary investment-grade credit underwriting,\" said Brian Gelfand, co-head of global credit at TCW. \"It's a lot more complicated than that. Given the off-balance sheet nature, the tail risk is on the high side.\"</p><p><h2>Others believe that worry is excessive</h2>Not everyone takes a pessimistic position.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JHG\">Janus Henderson</a>John Lloyd, global head of multi-sector and corporate credit at Investors, believes that triggering residual support requires extreme conditions: \"You have to see the growth rate of token usage fall off a cliff, and that's not what we are seeing at all.\"</p><p>He also noted that these companies \"are not trying to hide contingent liabilities, but are trying to finance them.\"</p><p>The logic of the proponents is: chip demand will continue to exceed supply for years to come; The debt structure is designed to be fully amortized over time, with decreasing potential costs backed by residual values; Technology risk ultimately falls on big tech companies that have enough cash to sustain losses.</p><p>But the rebuttal from critics is equally powerful: it is when the industry goes down that these guarantees are triggered, and that is precisely when chipmakers' own earnings are under pressure. Guarantee and risk are highly synchronized cyclically, which is the problem.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CHAT":"ROUNDHILL GENERATIVE AI & TECHNOLOGY ETF","VTHR":"Vanguard Russell 3000 ETF","ARTY":"ISHARES FUTURE AI & TECH ETF","QTOC":"Innovator Growth Accelerated Plus ETF - October","AGIX":"通用人工智能 ETF-AGIX","BNDW":"Vanguard Total World Bond ETF","AIPO":"Defiance AI and Power Infrastructure ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3779518","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2659179770","content_text":"AI芯片融资热潮催生了一种新型表外担保结构，规模已达700亿美元，债券市场正在为如何给这笔隐性风险定价而苦恼。\n据彭博8月15日报道，就在英伟达宣布5000亿美元融资合作之前，债券投资者已开始对主要AI公司资产负债表之外约700亿美元的\"幽灵负债\"感到不安。这些或有负债平时不显山露水，却可能在最糟糕的时刻突然兑现。\n这些负债的载体，是一种名为\"剩余价值担保\"（Residual Value Guarantee，RVG）的结构性安排，金额可能高达数百亿美元。这一机制的本质是：英伟达用自身强大的信用评级为客户的融资背书，帮助客户压低借贷成本。\n这套结构如何运作\n典型结构分三层：一个特殊目的载体（SPV）借钱购买芯片，借款由使用该技术的公司所签合同现金流作为支撑；若该公司停止付款，资产将被再次租赁或出售以偿还剩余债务；若仍有缺口，则由\"担保方\"补足差额。\n\n一个特殊目的载体（SPV）借钱买芯片；\n借款由某AI公司的使用合同现金流作为支撑；\n若该AI公司停止付款，芯片被转租或出售偿债；\n若仍有缺口，由担保方（芯片厂商）补足差额。\n\n这就是\"剩余价值担保\"——芯片卖家充当了最后兜底人。\n对英伟达、博通这类芯片巨头而言，这套结构是一笔\"划算的买卖\"：帮客户降低融资成本、扩大销售，自身不在账面上记录任何债务。Meta在其文件中对此直接表述：\"RVG担保方付款概率不高，因此迄今未记录任何负债。\"\n虽然\"概率不高\"，但越来越难以让市场信服。\n博通则将这一逻辑延伸至芯片融资领域。在代号\"Big Sky\"的项目中，博通为一笔350亿美元的债务交易提供担保——Apollo全球管理和黑石集团等投资者出资购买定制AI芯片，再租赁给Anthropic使用。这一安排使高级债务获得了投资级评级，融资成本随之下降。\n与跨越数十年的数据中心交易不同，芯片融资周期更短，通常约五年摊销完毕，以匹配技术快速折旧的节奏。这意味着担保敞口随时间快速收窄，给了贷款方一个相对清晰的退出视野。\n英伟达入场，规模或再跃升\n英伟达CEO Jensen Huang在X平台发文称，公司可能为相关机会提供最高25%的残值支持机制，\"逐案评估\"。\n\"我们的角色是帮助释放一大批独立资本，同时保持有纪律的风险敞口，\"他写道。\n英伟达表示，此次合作旨在引入外部资本，缓解\"循环融资\"问题——即AI公司相互出资购买彼此产品的闭环困境。参与这笔5000亿美元融资的六家美国投资机构包括贝莱德和高盛。\n博通的AI XPV平台是\"Big Sky\"交易的延伸，据美国银行策略师估算，该平台到2029年中期可能累积3700亿美元的高级债务。这意味着表外担保的潜在规模远不止于此。\n评级机构已发出警告\n评级机构对此并非无动于衷。\n穆迪在一份报告中写道：\"主要风险在于此类交易在短期内密集发生。\"\"我们认为，博通或有义务的大幅增加，即便其现有债务的杠杆率保持较低水平，也将限制博通的财务灵活性，并可能对公司信用状况形成压制。\"\n穆迪同时指出，博通对第三方租赁的担保\"部分抵消了强劲的业务优势\"，但更多担保将带来负面影响。\n标普全球评级则将博通提供的残值支持定性为\"或有债务类义务\"，并表示将把这部分纳入调整后的债务计算。\n根据美国会计准则，企业通常仅在损失\"可能发生且可合理估计\"时才将或有负债计入资产负债表，否则只需在财务报表附注中披露。这正是这批负债得以游离于账表之外的制度基础。\n投资者：金融工程在掩盖真实风险\n债券投资者的担忧集中在一点：这些表外或有负债，究竟何时会变成表内真实损失？\nDoubleLine投资组合经理Mariya Entina直言：\n\n这就像在钻系统的空子，试图从评级机构那里获得优待，以拿到尽可能高的评级……我们正在进入金融工程的时代。这是我的担忧之一：当你搞金融工程，你就是在掩盖财务现实。\n\nCreditSights分析师在报告中将英伟达的残值支持比作\"卖出一个看跌期权\"。\n\"这是顺周期的，会加剧繁荣-萧条的潜力，\"他们写道。\"在繁荣阶段，这个担保几乎没有成本；但在严重的急剧下行中，当客户违约、硬件市值下跌时，它就变得最为关键。\"\nTCW全球信贷联席主管Brian Gelfand表示：\"这不是普通的投资级信贷承销。\"\"它远比那复杂得多。鉴于表外性质，尾部风险是偏高的。\"\n也有人认为担忧过度\n并非所有人都持悲观立场。\nJanus Henderson Investors全球多板块及企业信贷主管John Lloyd认为，触发残值支持需要极端条件：\"你必须看到代币使用量的增长率断崖式下跌，而这根本不是我们正在看到的情况。\"\n他同时指出，这些公司\"并非试图隐藏或有负债，而是试图为其融资\"。\n支持者的逻辑是：芯片需求将在未来数年持续超过供给；债务结构设计为随时间全额摊销，残值支持的潜在成本也随之递减；技术风险最终落在有足够现金承受损失的大型科技公司身上。\n但批评者的反驳同样有力：正是在行业下行时，这些担保才会被触发，而那恰恰也是芯片制造商自身盈利承压的时刻。担保与风险在周期上高度同步，这才是问题所在。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ARTY":1.5,"VTHR":1.5,"CHAT":1.5,"QTOC":1.5,"BNDW":1.5,"AIPO":1.5,"AGIX":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":226,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":593534009368720,"gmtCreate":1785927068887,"gmtModify":1785927071155,"author":{"id":"4245325500824312","authorId":"4245325500824312","name":"Hcm","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d0991024d8c22de36c224065c9567f8b","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4245325500824312","idStr":"4245325500824312"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"🙈","listText":"🙈","text":"🙈","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/593534009368720","repostId":"2657515385","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2657515385","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1785914426,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2657515385?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-08-05 15:20","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"AMD's best financial report in history, in exchange for a 9% plunge: what the market wants is not good, but acceleration","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2657515385","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"这份财报没有否定AMD的成长故事，它否定的是\"故事不需要新证据\"的定价。 当市场为2027年数据中心翻倍预付了130%的涨幅，接下来的每一个季度，AMD都要用超出预期的执行，为这个溢价续命。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>This financial report does not deny AMD's growth story. What it denies is the pricing that \"the story doesn't need new evidence\". When the market prepaid a 130% increase for the doubling of data centers in 2027, AMD will have to live up to this premium with more than expected execution every next quarter.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">After the market closed on August 4th, AMD handed over an almost flawless financial report: revenue of $11.536 billion, a year-on-year increase of 50%, a record high; Non-GAAP EPS of $1.66, beating market estimates of $1.62; Data center revenue was US$6.718 billion, doubling year-on-year, accounting for 58% of the company's total revenue. However, the stock price once plunged 10% after the bell, closing down 8.8%.</p><p>Why has exceeding expectations become negative? What the market prices is not performance, but acceleration. AMD's share price rose by more than 130% during the year, ranging from $149 to $584 in 52 weeks. The increase was packed with the expectation of \"catching up with Nvidia\". Q3 guidance is about $13 billion, up from the consensus of $12.5 billion, but up only 13% sequentially — maintaining the slope, not a jump. The market wants to accelerate, but the financial report is not given.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2ecdf1ea51159ca1747e2de12633661\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"664\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The cost of investment is also evident in the financial report:<strong>The gross profit margin of 56% reached a new high, but the gross profit margin of AI data center was lower than the company's average, and the growth business accounting for 58% was diluting the profit margin instead; In order to grab the production capacity of Helios cabinet system, capital expenditure cost $808 million, nearly three times what analysts expected, and free cash flow was halved from $2.57 billion to $1.56 billion. For the first time, the cost of growth appears on the balance sheet.</strong></p><p><h2 id=\"id_3056447987\">The market wants to accelerate, Q3 guidance does not give</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Q3 guidance is around US$13 billion, up 41% year-on-year and 13% quarter-on-quarter, and the median is higher than the consensus of US$12.52 billion. This guidance is not bad, but the problem lies in the form: it only increased by 13% month-on-month, only continuing the current slope.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Dolphin Research Calculated the account:<strong>According to the guidelines, the Q3 data center increased by about $1.2 billion to $1.8 billion month-on-month, and MI455X has just started to ship. This step is not particularly strong. Previously, the market bet on AI demand to make AMD go to another file, and the guidance did not give this signal.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">AMD rose by more than 130% during the year, and what the market bought was a story: Nvidia's production capacity was limited, customers needed a second supplier, and AMD changed from an alternative to AI chips to a must. What the financial report has to do is prove that the story is accelerating.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In July, Anthropic announced the deployment of 2 GW MI450 GPU on Helios, and the stock price rose by about 10% on the day of the news; At the beginning of June, Broadcom's earnings report once triggered a correction in the semiconductor sector, and AMD then repaired it above $518 under the expectation of Helios orders. Each rise is raising the threshold for the next earnings report.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>When AMD handed over only \"good as expected\", the 130% increase during the year has no reason to continue upward. The after-hours sell order is the landing point of expected cash.</strong></p><p><h2 id=\"id_886190279\">107% doubling, half of which is a low base</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The 107% year-on-year growth rate of data centers is the most eye-catching, but the quality has to be questioned.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the second quarter of 2025, U.S. export control made AMD accrue $800 million in MI308 inventory and related expenses, smashing a pit into the base at that time. Part of this year's doubling was filled back by filling holes.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Dolphin Research took a number apart:<strong>Instinct AI GPU revenue in the quarter was about $2.7 billion, compared with about $1.1 billion in the same period last year, which also carried the shadow of the base. The EPYC is cleaner in comparison: both cloud and enterprise sales grew by more than 70% year over year, server CPU revenue hit a fifth consecutive quarter of record, and the sixth-generation EPYC Venice is in production. The acceleration without low base filter is the most solid piece of this financial report.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Su Zifeng gave the anchor on the conference call: data center revenue will \"more than double\" in 2027, server revenue will increase by more than 80% year-on-year in the second half of 2026, and it will still increase by more than 70% on a higher base in 2027.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_3973568968\">The dark line of gross profit margin: the bigger AI, the thinner the gross profit</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Non-GAAP gross margin of 56% is a new high, but there is moisture in the numbers. More than half of the 13-point jump from a year earlier came from the $800 million provision for export controls in the same period last year.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Management confirmed during the conference call that:<strong>The gross profit margin for AI data centers is slightly lower than the company average. Data centers are precisely the fastest growing business with the highest proportion, rising from 42% a year ago to 58% now. The most growing part of revenue is the structural gross profit diluent.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Compared to Nvidia's non-GAAP gross margin of 75%, the gap is nearly 20 percentage points. Nvidia makes excess profits by monopoly pricing, and AMD's share is exchanged by price-Su Zifeng put it bluntly. AMD sells a whole set of infrastructure that integrates CPU, GPU and network chips, and incites customers with lower unit price and higher openness. The price of this model is that the proportion of profit in every dollar of income is naturally lower than that of the rival.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Helios has shifted from selling chips to selling the whole cabinet system, and the unit price has gone up, but the chips, network and storage in the rack are all costs. The larger the scale, the more obvious the dilution effect. Part of the market's disappointment with this financial report is hidden in the dark line of gross profit margin.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_499984952\">Capital expenditure triples forecast, growth starts to burn money</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The balance sheet is more telling than the income statement: capital expenditure is $808 million, nearly three times what analysts expected (about $299 million, according to Dolphin Research); Free cash flow (estimated) dropped from $2.57 billion to $1.56 billion; Inventories increased to $8,468 million and accounts receivable increased 21% sequentially to $7,281 million.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">This is not financial deterioration, but an actively chosen growth model: first throw money into production capacity and stocking, and then wait for orders to be fulfilled.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Su Zifeng said that the demand for Helios is \"very strong, exceeding our initial forecast\". In order to catch orders, AMD must lock production capacity and prepare inventory in advance. The synchronous rise of cash, inventory and receivable is the trace of this rush.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The problem is that this model delays the certainty of performance into the future. Once the growth rate of AI capital expenditure slows down, or the delivery pace of a major customer is delayed, these figures will change from offensive ammunition to a burden of inventory.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_2512958195\">The real bottleneck lies in production capacity, not demand</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Helios is the most critical signal in this earnings report.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">This is AMD's first whole cabinet-level AI system, which packages CPU, GPU and network chips into a complete cabinet for delivery. This quarter, the first batch has been delivered to Meta, OpenAI and Oracle; Anthropic 2 GW collaboration announced in July, with the first 1 GW deployment beginning in the first half of 2027; Microsoft will also be deploying at scale on Azure. The customer list is still expanding: Anthropic, Cirrascale, HUMAIN, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI, Oracle, Tensorwave, Vultr.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>The story on the demand side is impeccable. AMD's ceiling isn't here, in TSMC's advanced packaging capacity.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">HSBC downgraded AMD to hold in May, citing TSMC's capacity limit-this financial report confirms the concern to some extent, otherwise AMD would not have to triple its capital expenditure to grab capacity. The competition of AI chips has changed from whose chip is better to who gets TSMC's production capacity first. Nvidia's priority is still an inevitable constraint for AMD.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Helios also has a deeper meaning: AMD's business model is shifting from selling chips to selling systems. In the past, it sold GPUs and CPUs one by one, and customers bought them back to build clusters themselves; Now that the whole cabinet is delivered, the unit price and delivery complexity have reached a higher level. This is both offensive and defensive-Nvidia has proved with rack-level products that the profit and customer stickiness of the system layer are much higher than those of single chips. But turning around also means heavier capital, greater delivery risk, cabinet problems, and responsibility from chip factory to system integrator.</strong></p><p><h2 id=\"id_2220326236\">The valuation of the chaser, has prepaid the success</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Nvidia accounts for about 80% of the AI accelerator market, and AMD accounts for about 10% to 15%; Nvidia's data center revenue in a single quarter was $75.2 billion, 11 times the total data center business of AMD. However, after a 130% surge during the year, AMD's dynamic P/E is significantly higher than that of Nvidia, and analysts' valuation differences are also on the table: Morgan Stanley questioned the valuation, and Benchmark gave a target price of $685.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">There is only one explanation for this spread: the market paid for \"catch-up success\" in advance. AMD's rise is based on the assumption that its share moves from 12% to 25%. Once the path is proven to be slower than expected, the valuation will return to reality; In turn, if the Helios rack transformation and 2027 doubling guidelines are fulfilled, the current valuation seems less expensive. Both sides of disagreement, betting on both ends of the same variable.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_1954583591\">NVIDIA WILL BE NEXT</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It fell 8.8% to about $473 after hours, just the first round of this pricing. In the next few days, the market reread this earnings report in sequence.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Let's see whether AMD underlying shares can hold the $470 line first: it falls below $450, the profit-taking plate begins to trample during the year, and the technical side turns empty; Holding 470 shows that long-term funds are taking the opportunity to attract funds. After all, the doubling guidance in 2027 is still on the table. An hour and a half after-hours decline, traded in Q3 guidance not accelerating enough, does not represent the 2027 story being overturned.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Look at Nvidia again. It released its financial report on August 26th, after data center revenue of $75.2 billion in the previous fiscal quarter, a year-on-year increase of 92%. AMD can't rise even if it exceeds expectations in an all-round way. How high has the market's expectation threshold for Nvidia been raised? When exceeding expectations becomes the benchmark and exceeding expectations significantly can drive the stock price, every financial report of the AI chip sector will become an increasingly difficult exam.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">At the industrial chain level, TSMC and advanced packaging chain are hidden beneficiaries: AMD's capital expenditure is three times that expected, and it eventually flows to TSMC's CoWoS production capacity; After Helios is enclosed, the value of packaging and network links is amplified. But this also means that AMD's delivery ceiling is in the hands of others, and every guidance that exceeds expectations must first pass TSMC's capacity allocation.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_1199044141\">The story needs new evidence</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">AMD exceeded expectations in an all-round way but fell by 9%. The pricing logic of AI stocks in U.S. stocks this quarter is already very clear:<strong>The stock price is overdrawn in expectations first, and then cashed in the financial report. The guidance exceeds expectations only a passing line. What really determines the stock price is whether the acceleration curve preset by the market has been refreshed.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">This financial report does not deny AMD's growth story. What it denies is the pricing that \"the story doesn't need new evidence\". When the market prepaid a 130% increase for the doubling of data centers in 2027, AMD will have to live up to this premium with more than expected execution every next quarter.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the next month, the market will stare at three things: whether AMD's share price can hold $470, whether Nvidia's financial report on August 26th can hold up to the raised threshold, and whether the balance of TSMC's capacity allocation will tilt towards AMD. Further, the first batch of 1 GW deployment of Anthropic in the first half of 2027, the quarterly shipment slope of MI455X, and whether the gross profit margin of AI data center can improve with the scale are three hard indicators to verify the quality of the \"doubling guidance\". The arms race of AI chips is not over, but it has only entered the stage of cashing in from storytelling.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD's best financial report in history, in exchange for a 9% plunge: what the market wants is not good, but acceleration</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD's best financial report in history, in exchange for a 9% plunge: what the market wants is not good, but acceleration\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2026-08-05 15:20</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>This financial report does not deny AMD's growth story. What it denies is the pricing that \"the story doesn't need new evidence\". When the market prepaid a 130% increase for the doubling of data centers in 2027, AMD will have to live up to this premium with more than expected execution every next quarter.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">After the market closed on August 4th, AMD handed over an almost flawless financial report: revenue of $11.536 billion, a year-on-year increase of 50%, a record high; Non-GAAP EPS of $1.66, beating market estimates of $1.62; Data center revenue was US$6.718 billion, doubling year-on-year, accounting for 58% of the company's total revenue. However, the stock price once plunged 10% after the bell, closing down 8.8%.</p><p>Why has exceeding expectations become negative? What the market prices is not performance, but acceleration. AMD's share price rose by more than 130% during the year, ranging from $149 to $584 in 52 weeks. The increase was packed with the expectation of \"catching up with Nvidia\". Q3 guidance is about $13 billion, up from the consensus of $12.5 billion, but up only 13% sequentially — maintaining the slope, not a jump. The market wants to accelerate, but the financial report is not given.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2ecdf1ea51159ca1747e2de12633661\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"664\"/></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The cost of investment is also evident in the financial report:<strong>The gross profit margin of 56% reached a new high, but the gross profit margin of AI data center was lower than the company's average, and the growth business accounting for 58% was diluting the profit margin instead; In order to grab the production capacity of Helios cabinet system, capital expenditure cost $808 million, nearly three times what analysts expected, and free cash flow was halved from $2.57 billion to $1.56 billion. For the first time, the cost of growth appears on the balance sheet.</strong></p><p><h2 id=\"id_3056447987\">The market wants to accelerate, Q3 guidance does not give</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Q3 guidance is around US$13 billion, up 41% year-on-year and 13% quarter-on-quarter, and the median is higher than the consensus of US$12.52 billion. This guidance is not bad, but the problem lies in the form: it only increased by 13% month-on-month, only continuing the current slope.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Dolphin Research Calculated the account:<strong>According to the guidelines, the Q3 data center increased by about $1.2 billion to $1.8 billion month-on-month, and MI455X has just started to ship. This step is not particularly strong. Previously, the market bet on AI demand to make AMD go to another file, and the guidance did not give this signal.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">AMD rose by more than 130% during the year, and what the market bought was a story: Nvidia's production capacity was limited, customers needed a second supplier, and AMD changed from an alternative to AI chips to a must. What the financial report has to do is prove that the story is accelerating.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In July, Anthropic announced the deployment of 2 GW MI450 GPU on Helios, and the stock price rose by about 10% on the day of the news; At the beginning of June, Broadcom's earnings report once triggered a correction in the semiconductor sector, and AMD then repaired it above $518 under the expectation of Helios orders. Each rise is raising the threshold for the next earnings report.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>When AMD handed over only \"good as expected\", the 130% increase during the year has no reason to continue upward. The after-hours sell order is the landing point of expected cash.</strong></p><p><h2 id=\"id_886190279\">107% doubling, half of which is a low base</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The 107% year-on-year growth rate of data centers is the most eye-catching, but the quality has to be questioned.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the second quarter of 2025, U.S. export control made AMD accrue $800 million in MI308 inventory and related expenses, smashing a pit into the base at that time. Part of this year's doubling was filled back by filling holes.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Dolphin Research took a number apart:<strong>Instinct AI GPU revenue in the quarter was about $2.7 billion, compared with about $1.1 billion in the same period last year, which also carried the shadow of the base. The EPYC is cleaner in comparison: both cloud and enterprise sales grew by more than 70% year over year, server CPU revenue hit a fifth consecutive quarter of record, and the sixth-generation EPYC Venice is in production. The acceleration without low base filter is the most solid piece of this financial report.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Su Zifeng gave the anchor on the conference call: data center revenue will \"more than double\" in 2027, server revenue will increase by more than 80% year-on-year in the second half of 2026, and it will still increase by more than 70% on a higher base in 2027.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_3973568968\">The dark line of gross profit margin: the bigger AI, the thinner the gross profit</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Non-GAAP gross margin of 56% is a new high, but there is moisture in the numbers. More than half of the 13-point jump from a year earlier came from the $800 million provision for export controls in the same period last year.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Management confirmed during the conference call that:<strong>The gross profit margin for AI data centers is slightly lower than the company average. Data centers are precisely the fastest growing business with the highest proportion, rising from 42% a year ago to 58% now. The most growing part of revenue is the structural gross profit diluent.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Compared to Nvidia's non-GAAP gross margin of 75%, the gap is nearly 20 percentage points. Nvidia makes excess profits by monopoly pricing, and AMD's share is exchanged by price-Su Zifeng put it bluntly. AMD sells a whole set of infrastructure that integrates CPU, GPU and network chips, and incites customers with lower unit price and higher openness. The price of this model is that the proportion of profit in every dollar of income is naturally lower than that of the rival.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Helios has shifted from selling chips to selling the whole cabinet system, and the unit price has gone up, but the chips, network and storage in the rack are all costs. The larger the scale, the more obvious the dilution effect. Part of the market's disappointment with this financial report is hidden in the dark line of gross profit margin.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_499984952\">Capital expenditure triples forecast, growth starts to burn money</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The balance sheet is more telling than the income statement: capital expenditure is $808 million, nearly three times what analysts expected (about $299 million, according to Dolphin Research); Free cash flow (estimated) dropped from $2.57 billion to $1.56 billion; Inventories increased to $8,468 million and accounts receivable increased 21% sequentially to $7,281 million.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">This is not financial deterioration, but an actively chosen growth model: first throw money into production capacity and stocking, and then wait for orders to be fulfilled.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Su Zifeng said that the demand for Helios is \"very strong, exceeding our initial forecast\". In order to catch orders, AMD must lock production capacity and prepare inventory in advance. The synchronous rise of cash, inventory and receivable is the trace of this rush.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The problem is that this model delays the certainty of performance into the future. Once the growth rate of AI capital expenditure slows down, or the delivery pace of a major customer is delayed, these figures will change from offensive ammunition to a burden of inventory.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_2512958195\">The real bottleneck lies in production capacity, not demand</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Helios is the most critical signal in this earnings report.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">This is AMD's first whole cabinet-level AI system, which packages CPU, GPU and network chips into a complete cabinet for delivery. This quarter, the first batch has been delivered to Meta, OpenAI and Oracle; Anthropic 2 GW collaboration announced in July, with the first 1 GW deployment beginning in the first half of 2027; Microsoft will also be deploying at scale on Azure. The customer list is still expanding: Anthropic, Cirrascale, HUMAIN, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI, Oracle, Tensorwave, Vultr.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>The story on the demand side is impeccable. AMD's ceiling isn't here, in TSMC's advanced packaging capacity.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">HSBC downgraded AMD to hold in May, citing TSMC's capacity limit-this financial report confirms the concern to some extent, otherwise AMD would not have to triple its capital expenditure to grab capacity. The competition of AI chips has changed from whose chip is better to who gets TSMC's production capacity first. Nvidia's priority is still an inevitable constraint for AMD.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Helios also has a deeper meaning: AMD's business model is shifting from selling chips to selling systems. In the past, it sold GPUs and CPUs one by one, and customers bought them back to build clusters themselves; Now that the whole cabinet is delivered, the unit price and delivery complexity have reached a higher level. This is both offensive and defensive-Nvidia has proved with rack-level products that the profit and customer stickiness of the system layer are much higher than those of single chips. But turning around also means heavier capital, greater delivery risk, cabinet problems, and responsibility from chip factory to system integrator.</strong></p><p><h2 id=\"id_2220326236\">The valuation of the chaser, has prepaid the success</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Nvidia accounts for about 80% of the AI accelerator market, and AMD accounts for about 10% to 15%; Nvidia's data center revenue in a single quarter was $75.2 billion, 11 times the total data center business of AMD. However, after a 130% surge during the year, AMD's dynamic P/E is significantly higher than that of Nvidia, and analysts' valuation differences are also on the table: Morgan Stanley questioned the valuation, and Benchmark gave a target price of $685.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">There is only one explanation for this spread: the market paid for \"catch-up success\" in advance. AMD's rise is based on the assumption that its share moves from 12% to 25%. Once the path is proven to be slower than expected, the valuation will return to reality; In turn, if the Helios rack transformation and 2027 doubling guidelines are fulfilled, the current valuation seems less expensive. Both sides of disagreement, betting on both ends of the same variable.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_1954583591\">NVIDIA WILL BE NEXT</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It fell 8.8% to about $473 after hours, just the first round of this pricing. In the next few days, the market reread this earnings report in sequence.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Let's see whether AMD underlying shares can hold the $470 line first: it falls below $450, the profit-taking plate begins to trample during the year, and the technical side turns empty; Holding 470 shows that long-term funds are taking the opportunity to attract funds. After all, the doubling guidance in 2027 is still on the table. An hour and a half after-hours decline, traded in Q3 guidance not accelerating enough, does not represent the 2027 story being overturned.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Look at Nvidia again. It released its financial report on August 26th, after data center revenue of $75.2 billion in the previous fiscal quarter, a year-on-year increase of 92%. AMD can't rise even if it exceeds expectations in an all-round way. How high has the market's expectation threshold for Nvidia been raised? When exceeding expectations becomes the benchmark and exceeding expectations significantly can drive the stock price, every financial report of the AI chip sector will become an increasingly difficult exam.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">At the industrial chain level, TSMC and advanced packaging chain are hidden beneficiaries: AMD's capital expenditure is three times that expected, and it eventually flows to TSMC's CoWoS production capacity; After Helios is enclosed, the value of packaging and network links is amplified. But this also means that AMD's delivery ceiling is in the hands of others, and every guidance that exceeds expectations must first pass TSMC's capacity allocation.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_1199044141\">The story needs new evidence</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">AMD exceeded expectations in an all-round way but fell by 9%. The pricing logic of AI stocks in U.S. stocks this quarter is already very clear:<strong>The stock price is overdrawn in expectations first, and then cashed in the financial report. The guidance exceeds expectations only a passing line. What really determines the stock price is whether the acceleration curve preset by the market has been refreshed.</strong></p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">This financial report does not deny AMD's growth story. What it denies is the pricing that \"the story doesn't need new evidence\". When the market prepaid a 130% increase for the doubling of data centers in 2027, AMD will have to live up to this premium with more than expected execution every next quarter.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the next month, the market will stare at three things: whether AMD's share price can hold $470, whether Nvidia's financial report on August 26th can hold up to the raised threshold, and whether the balance of TSMC's capacity allocation will tilt towards AMD. Further, the first batch of 1 GW deployment of Anthropic in the first half of 2027, the quarterly shipment slope of MI455X, and whether the gross profit margin of AI data center can improve with the scale are three hard indicators to verify the quality of the \"doubling guidance\". The arms race of AI chips is not over, but it has only entered the stage of cashing in from storytelling.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a593d85be38c3aa543ab3056553101ff","relate_stocks":{"LU2746668461.USD":"MANULIFE DYNAMIC LEADERS \"AA\" (USD) ACC","LU2430703095.HKD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4\" (HKD) INC","LU0642271901.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Technology Leaders A2 SGD-H","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","LU2430703178.SGD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4H\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU0211327993.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","GAMR":"Amplify Video Game Leaders ETF","LU1983260115.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Global Sustainable Equity A2 SGD-H","LU0795875169.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (div) SGD-H","LU2430703251.USD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4\" (USD) INC","LU2360106780.USD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU2089985449.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR OPPORTUNITIES \"AA\" (USD) ACC","LU2931357623.SGD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR OPPORTUNITIES \"AA\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1035775433.USD":"AB SICAV I - 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(SGDHDG) ACC","LU0061474960.USD":"天利环球焦点基金AU Acc","LU0494093205.USD":"贝莱德ESG灵活多元资产A2 USD-H","LU1868836914.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"3\" (USD) ACC","LU0965509283.SGD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (SGDHDG) INC","WISE":"THEMES GENERATIVE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ETF","SG9999015952.SGD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (SGD) ACC","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1868837136.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"8\" (USD) ACC","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU1821325948.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL MACRO ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","FDTX":"Fidelity Disruptive Technology ETF","LU2264538146.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","LU2279689827.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income Sustainable A (mth) SGD-H","LU1868836591.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"1U\"(USD) ACC","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","LU1868836757.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"2\" (USD) ACC","LU2347655156.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (icdiv) SGD-H","LU1815333072.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL FOCUS \"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU0957791311.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL FOCUS \"ZU\" (USD) ACC","SOXQ":"Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","IE00B4JS1V06.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3778726","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2657515385","content_text":"这份财报没有否定AMD的成长故事，它否定的是\"故事不需要新证据\"的定价。 当市场为2027年数据中心翻倍预付了130%的涨幅，接下来的每一个季度，AMD都要用超出预期的执行，为这个溢价续命。8月4日盘后，AMD交出了一份几乎没有瑕疵的财报：营收115.36亿美元，同比增长 50%，创历史新高；非GAAP每股收益1.66美元，超过市场预期的1.62美元；数据中心营收67.18亿美元，同比翻倍，占公司总营收的58%。股价在盘后却一度暴跌10%，收跌8.8%。超预期为什么成了利空？市场定价的不是业绩，是加速。AMD年内股价涨超130%，52周区间从149美元到584美元，涨幅里装的是\"追赶英伟达\"的预期。Q3指引约130亿美元，高于共识的125亿美元，但环比只增 13%——维持斜率，不是跳档。市场要的加速，财报没有给。投资的代价在财报上也有所显现：56%的毛利率创了新高，但 AI 数据中心的毛利率低于公司平均，占比58%的成长业务反而在稀释利润率；为了 Helios 机柜系统抢产能，资本开支花了8.08亿美元，是分析师预期的近3倍，自由现金流从25.7亿美元腰斩到15.6亿美元。增长的代价，第一次在资产负债表上显形。市场要的加速，Q3 指引没有给Q3指引130亿美元上下，同比增41%，环比增13%，中值高于共识的125.2亿美元。这份指引谈不上差，问题在形态：环比只增13%，只是延续当前的斜率。Dolphin Research算了笔账：按指引推算，Q3 数据中心环比增量约12亿到18亿美元，而 MI455X 才刚刚开始出货，这个台阶算不上特别强。市场此前押注的是 AI 需求让 AMD 再上一个档，指引没有给出这个信号。AMD 年内涨超130%，市场买的是一个故事：英伟达产能受限、客户需要第二供应商，AMD 从 AI 芯片的备选项变成必选项。财报要做的，是证明这个故事在加速。7月 Anthropic 宣布在 Helios上部署2吉瓦MI450 GPU，消息当天股价涨约10%；6月初博通财报一度引发半导体板块回调，AMD 随后在 Helios 订单预期下重新修复至518美元上方。每一次上涨，都在抬高下一次财报的门槛。当AMD交出的只是\"符合预期的好\"，年内130%的涨幅就没了继续向上的理由。盘后的卖盘，是预期兑现的落点。107%的翻倍，一半是低基数数据中心同比107%的增速最抓眼球，但成色要打个问号。2025年二季度，美国出口管制让 AMD 计提了8亿美元的 MI308 库存及相关费用，把当时的基数砸出了一个坑。今年的翻倍，有一部分是填坑填回来的。Dolphin Research拆了一个数：本季度 Instinct AI GPU营收约27亿美元，上年同期约11亿美元，同样带着基数的阴影。相比之下 EPYC 更干净：云和企业销售同比增长都超过70%，服务器 CPU 营收连续第五个季度创纪录，第六代 EPYC Venice 已投产。没有低基数滤镜的加速，才是这份财报最扎实的一块。苏姿丰在电话会上给了锚：2027年数据中心营收\"翻倍有余\"，2026下半年服务器营收同比增长超过80%，2027年在更高基数上仍增长超过70%。毛利率的暗线：AI 越大，毛利越薄56%的非GAAP毛利率创了新高，但数字里有水分。同比13个百分点的跃升，一大半来自去年同期那笔8亿美元的出口管制计提。管理层在电话会上确认：AI 数据中心的毛利率略低于公司平均水平。而数据中心恰恰是增长最快、占比最高的业务，从一年前的42%升到现在的58%。营收中最具成长性的部分，是结构性的毛利稀释器。对比英伟达75%的非 GAAP 毛利率，差距近20个百分点。英伟达靠垄断定价赚超额利润，AMD 的份额靠价格换——苏姿丰说得很直白，AMD 卖的是整合 CPU、GPU、网络芯片的整套基础设施，用更低的单价和更高的开放度撬动客户。这个模式的代价，是每一块钱收入里装进利润的比例天然低于对手。Helios 从卖芯片转向卖整机柜系统，单价上去了，但机架里的芯片、网络、存储都是成本。规模越大，稀释效应越明显。市场对这份财报的失望，一部分就藏在毛利率的暗线里。资本开支三倍于预期，增长开始烧钱资产负债表比利润表更能说明问题：资本开支8.08亿美元，是分析师预期（约2.99亿美元，据 Dolphin Research 测算）的近3倍；自由现金流（据测算）从25.7亿美元降到15.6亿美元；存货增至84.68亿美元，应收账款环比增长21%，达到72.81亿美元。这不是财务恶化，是主动选择的增长模式：先把钱砸进产能和备货，再等订单兑现。苏姿丰说 Helios 的需求\"非常强劲，超出我们最初的预测\"，为了接住订单，AMD 必须提前锁产能、提前备库存。现金、存货、应收三个科目同步走高，就是这份抢跑的痕迹。问题在于，这种模式把业绩的确定性推迟到了未来。一旦 AI 资本开支增速放缓，或某个大客户交付节奏延后，这些数字会从进攻的弹药变成库存的负担。真正的瓶颈在产能，不在需求Helios 是这份财报里最关键的信号。这是 AMD 首款整机柜级 AI 系统，把 CPU、GPU、网络芯片打包成完整机柜交付，本季度已向 Meta、OpenAI、Oracle 交付首批；7月宣布的 Anthropic 2吉瓦合作，首批1吉瓦部署在2027年上半年开始；微软也将在 Azure 上大规模部署。客户名单还在扩：Anthropic、Cirrascale、HUMAIN、Meta、微软、OpenAI、Oracle、Tensorwave、Vultr。需求端的故事无可挑剔。AMD 的天花板不在这里，在台积电的先进封装产能。汇丰5月把 AMD 下调至持有，理由就是台积电产能限制——这份财报某种程度上证实了担忧，否则 AMD 没必要把资本开支打到预期三倍去抢产能。AI 芯片的竞争，已经从谁的芯片更好，变成谁先拿到台积电的产能。英伟达的优先权，依然是 AMD 绕不开的约束。Helios 还藏着一层更深的含义：AMD 的商业模式在从卖芯片转向卖系统。过去它卖一颗颗 GPU、CPU，客户买回去自己拼集群；现在整机柜交付，单价和交付复杂度都上了一个台阶。这既是进攻也是防御——英伟达早用机架级产品证明，系统层的利润和客户黏性比单芯片高得多。但转身也意味着资本更重、交付风险更大，机柜出问题，责任从芯片厂变成系统集成商。追赶者的估值，已经把成功预付了英伟达在 AI 加速器市场占约80%份额，AMD 大约10%到15%；英伟达数据中心单季营收752亿美元，是 AMD 全部数据中心业务的11倍。但年内大涨130%之后，AMD 的动态市盈率反而明显高于英伟达，分析师的估值分歧也摆上台面：摩根士丹利质疑估值，Benchmark 给出685美元目标价。这个价差只有一种解释：市场把\"追赶成功\"提前付了钱。AMD 的上涨建立在份额从12%走向25%的假设上，一旦路径被证实比想象中慢，估值就要向现实回归；反过来，Helios 机架化转型和2027年翻倍指引若兑现，当前估值又显得没那么贵。分歧的双方，赌的是同一个变量的两端。英伟达将是下一关盘后跌8.8%到约473美元，只是这场定价的第一回合。接下来几天，市场按顺序重读这份财报。先看 AMD 正股能否守住470美元一线：跌破450美元，年内获利盘开始踩踏，技术面转空；守住470，说明长线资金在借机吸筹，毕竟2027年翻倍指引还在桌上。盘后一个半小时的跌幅，交易的是 Q3 指引不够加速，不代表2027年的故事被推翻。再看英伟达。它8月26日发财报，此前一个财季数据中心营收752亿美元、同比增92%。AMD 全面超预期都换不来上涨，市场对英伟达的预期门槛被抬到了多高？当超预期成为基准、大幅超预期才能推动股价时，AI 芯片板块的每一次财报，都会变成一场越来越难的考试。产业链层面，TSMC 和先进封装链是隐性受益方：AMD 的资本开支三倍于预期，最终流向台积电的 CoWoS 产能；Helios 机柜化之后，封装和网络环节的价值量被放大。但这也意味着 AMD 的交付上限握在别人手里，每一份超预期指引，都要先过台积电产能分配这一关。故事需要新证据了AMD 全面超预期却跌9%，本季美股 AI 股的定价逻辑已经很明白：股价先在预期里透支，再在财报里兑现，指引超预期只是及格线，真正决定股价的，是市场预设的加速曲线有没有被刷新。这份财报没有否定 AMD 的成长故事，它否定的是\"故事不需要新证据\"的定价。 当市场为2027年数据中心翻倍预付了130%的涨幅，接下来的每一个季度，AMD 都要用超出预期的执行，为这个溢价续命。接下来一个月，市场盯着三件事：AMD 股价能否守住470美元、英伟达8月26日的财报能否扛住抬高的门槛、台积电产能分配的天平会不会向 AMD 倾斜。再往后，2027年上半年的 Anthropic 首批1吉瓦部署、MI455X 的季度出货斜率、AI 数据中心毛利率能否随规模改善，是验证\"翻倍指引\"成色的三个硬指标。AI 芯片的军备竞赛没有结束，只是从讲故事进入了兑现的阶段。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"VGT":0.6,"AMDL":0.6,"AIFD":0.6,"AGOX":0.6,"WUGI":0.6,"ARTY":0.6,"CMAG":0.6,"LFGY":0.6,"AMDW":0.6,"AIQ":0.6,"JGRO":0.6,"FAI":0.6,"CHPX":0.6,"AMDY":0.6,"CNEQ":0.6,"AMDU":0.6,"SOXQ":0.6,"WISE":0.6,"DAMD":0.6,"ESUM":0.6,"XLK":0.6,"TTXU":0.6,"PSI":0.6,"FTXL":0.6,"AMUU":0.6,"CHPS":0.6,"SOXX":0.6,"TEK":0.6,"SMH":0.6,"SMHX":0.6,"AIS":0.6,"CHAT":0.6,"AMYY":0.6,"AMDS":0.6,"TRFK":0.6,"TTEQ":0.6,"EFIV":0.6,"METV":0.6,"SOXY":0.6,"BAI":0.6,"AMDD":0.6,"AMDG":0.6,"GAMR":0.6,"IXN":0.6,"TYLG":0.6,"VT":0.6,"ILDR":0.6,"SPTE":0.6,"FTEC":0.6,"CLSE":0.6,"NULC":0.6,"USD":0.6,"AMD":2,"SHOC":0.6,"LEGR":0.6,"SNPE":0.6,"ABFL":0.6,"ROM":0.6,"THMR":0.6,"USXF":0.6,"IETC":0.6,"AIPI":0.6,"XNTK":0.6,"CNAV":0.6,"FDTX":0.6,"ESLG":0.6,"QQQA":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":529,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":589661362037584,"gmtCreate":1784990397976,"gmtModify":1784990400858,"author":{"id":"4144466283079132","authorId":"4144466283079132","name":"沉穩","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ceaf33910c228b133ddf5a00e3ddd318","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4144466283079132","idStr":"4144466283079132"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"who YOLO, this time YOLO[得意]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"who YOLO, this time YOLO[得意]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"who YOLO, this time YOLO[得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/589661362037584","repostId":"2653080385","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2653080385","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1784902636,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2653080385?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-07-24 22:17","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"\"YOLO\" retail investors anti-quilt! Momentum factor hit the biggest pullback/retracement in four years, and the hottest group stocks evaporated by 25% in one month","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2653080385","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"动量交易7月遭遇四年来最惨回撤，散户成为最大受害者，热门持仓篮子较6月高点跌逾25%，散户净买入降至疫情以来最低。尽管AI疑虑等因素引发拥挤交易瓦解，但华尔街认为抛售已过度，动量股正释放强劲反弹信号。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The rapid collapse of momentum trading is hitting its most loyal fans, retail investors.</p><p>The basket of stocks that track retail investors' favorite holdings fell the worst this month since 2022, with the Russell 1000 High Retail Engagement Basket compiled by Jefferies falling more than 25% cumulatively since June.</p><p>Among the 11 quantitative factors tracked by Bloomberg, the momentum factor performed at the bottom of July, making it the most hurt strategy in this round of market correction.<strong>The iconic \"YOLO\" (you only live once) chasing operation of retail investors suffered a positive impact this month.</strong></p><p>Multiple negative overlays are the main reason for the collapse of this momentum trade: doubts about the huge investment returns of artificial intelligence prompted hedge funds to close out tech positions at record rates, and the resurgence of Iran and uncertainty over the Fed's interest rate path further weighed on an already heavily crowded trade. Market participation among retail investors has cooled significantly as a result – Vanda Research data shows that weekly rolling net buying of individual stocks has fallen to its lowest level since the pandemic.</p><p><h2>Momentum Factor suffers the biggest pullback/retracement in four years, and retail investors bear the brunt</h2>The collapse of momentum trading this month has dealt a particularly direct blow to retail investors.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HOOD\">Robinhood</a>Retail heavyweights such as Markets and Marvell are among them,<strong>The related basket dropped the most this month since 2022.</strong></p><p>Viraj Patel, global macro strategist at Vanda Research, noted, \"Semiconductor and AI hardware stocks have been the core drivers of momentum strategy, and these names have been in retail portfolios for a long time.\" It is this highly concentrated position structure that makes the pullback/retracement of momentum factor far more lethal to retail investors than other groups.</p><p><h2>Multiple negative superposition, crowded trading accelerates the collapse</h2>The collapse of momentum trading was not caused by a single factor.</p><p>According to Bloomberg, doubts about the outlook for AI investment returns first triggered hedge funds to trim tech positions at a record pace; Subsequent renewed tensions in Iran and concerns about the direction of the Federal Reserve's interest rate further eroded investor confidence in an already highly crowded deal.</p><p>At the sector level, technology ETFs suffered large-scale capital outflows.</p><p><h2>Retail Participation Drops to Lowest Since Pandemic, Not Full Retreat</h2>The market activity of retail investors has obviously contracted in this round of shocks.</p><p>Weekly rolling net buying of individual stocks has fallen to its lowest level since Covid, according to Vanda Research data.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Securities data showed that the total inflow of retail funds in the week ending Wednesday was $5.7 billion, lower than the weekly average of $6.8 billion in the past 12 months.</p><p>\"The slowdown in retail participation closely aligns with the recent nervousness surrounding momentum pullback/retracement,\" JPMorgan Chase's Arun Jain wrote in the report.</p><p>However, JPMorgan data also shows that retail investors have not fled in an all-round way, but have become more picky.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>continues to attract substantial net buying, while<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It is under the greatest selling pressure. Patel said, \"<strong>Retail money flows are becoming very fragmented. Unlike last year's logic of 'buy everything AI', retail investors are now very cautious in stock selection.</strong>\"</p><p><h2>Wall Street recommends bargain-hunting layout, momentum factor now signals strong rebound</h2>The sharp decline has prompted several Wall Street trading desks to advise clients to buy the dip.</p><p>Michael Romano of UBS Securities wrote in a client note that the sell-off may have priced in much of the speculative bubble or bottomed prices.<strong>The Bank of America trading desk, for its part, urged clients to buy U.S. momentum stocks, arguing that the sector has entered an attractive entry opportunity after a round of profit-taking.</strong></p><p>From the recent data, the rebound signal has emerged.<strong>Bank of America's basket of U.S. momentum stocks rose 8.9% over the past three sessions, its biggest three-day gain since November 2024; UBS's momentum gauge surged 11%, its biggest three-day gain since 2022.</strong></p><p>\"Momentum trading — and retail investors — has been on a rollercoaster ride,\" Patel said. \"But once the selling pressure subsides and the buyer strike ends, the conditions for a meaningful rebound will be stronger.\"</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"YOLO\" retail investors anti-quilt! Momentum factor hit the biggest pullback/retracement in four years, and the hottest group stocks evaporated by 25% in one month</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"YOLO\" retail investors anti-quilt! Momentum factor hit the biggest pullback/retracement in four years, and the hottest group stocks evaporated by 25% in one month\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2026-07-24 22:17</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The rapid collapse of momentum trading is hitting its most loyal fans, retail investors.</p><p>The basket of stocks that track retail investors' favorite holdings fell the worst this month since 2022, with the Russell 1000 High Retail Engagement Basket compiled by Jefferies falling more than 25% cumulatively since June.</p><p>Among the 11 quantitative factors tracked by Bloomberg, the momentum factor performed at the bottom of July, making it the most hurt strategy in this round of market correction.<strong>The iconic \"YOLO\" (you only live once) chasing operation of retail investors suffered a positive impact this month.</strong></p><p>Multiple negative overlays are the main reason for the collapse of this momentum trade: doubts about the huge investment returns of artificial intelligence prompted hedge funds to close out tech positions at record rates, and the resurgence of Iran and uncertainty over the Fed's interest rate path further weighed on an already heavily crowded trade. Market participation among retail investors has cooled significantly as a result – Vanda Research data shows that weekly rolling net buying of individual stocks has fallen to its lowest level since the pandemic.</p><p><h2>Momentum Factor suffers the biggest pullback/retracement in four years, and retail investors bear the brunt</h2>The collapse of momentum trading this month has dealt a particularly direct blow to retail investors.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HOOD\">Robinhood</a>Retail heavyweights such as Markets and Marvell are among them,<strong>The related basket dropped the most this month since 2022.</strong></p><p>Viraj Patel, global macro strategist at Vanda Research, noted, \"Semiconductor and AI hardware stocks have been the core drivers of momentum strategy, and these names have been in retail portfolios for a long time.\" It is this highly concentrated position structure that makes the pullback/retracement of momentum factor far more lethal to retail investors than other groups.</p><p><h2>Multiple negative superposition, crowded trading accelerates the collapse</h2>The collapse of momentum trading was not caused by a single factor.</p><p>According to Bloomberg, doubts about the outlook for AI investment returns first triggered hedge funds to trim tech positions at a record pace; Subsequent renewed tensions in Iran and concerns about the direction of the Federal Reserve's interest rate further eroded investor confidence in an already highly crowded deal.</p><p>At the sector level, technology ETFs suffered large-scale capital outflows.</p><p><h2>Retail Participation Drops to Lowest Since Pandemic, Not Full Retreat</h2>The market activity of retail investors has obviously contracted in this round of shocks.</p><p>Weekly rolling net buying of individual stocks has fallen to its lowest level since Covid, according to Vanda Research data.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Securities data showed that the total inflow of retail funds in the week ending Wednesday was $5.7 billion, lower than the weekly average of $6.8 billion in the past 12 months.</p><p>\"The slowdown in retail participation closely aligns with the recent nervousness surrounding momentum pullback/retracement,\" JPMorgan Chase's Arun Jain wrote in the report.</p><p>However, JPMorgan data also shows that retail investors have not fled in an all-round way, but have become more picky.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>continues to attract substantial net buying, while<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It is under the greatest selling pressure. Patel said, \"<strong>Retail money flows are becoming very fragmented. Unlike last year's logic of 'buy everything AI', retail investors are now very cautious in stock selection.</strong>\"</p><p><h2>Wall Street recommends bargain-hunting layout, momentum factor now signals strong rebound</h2>The sharp decline has prompted several Wall Street trading desks to advise clients to buy the dip.</p><p>Michael Romano of UBS Securities wrote in a client note that the sell-off may have priced in much of the speculative bubble or bottomed prices.<strong>The Bank of America trading desk, for its part, urged clients to buy U.S. momentum stocks, arguing that the sector has entered an attractive entry opportunity after a round of profit-taking.</strong></p><p>From the recent data, the rebound signal has emerged.<strong>Bank of America's basket of U.S. momentum stocks rose 8.9% over the past three sessions, its biggest three-day gain since November 2024; UBS's momentum gauge surged 11%, its biggest three-day gain since 2022.</strong></p><p>\"Momentum trading — and retail investors — has been on a rollercoaster ride,\" Patel said. \"But once the selling pressure subsides and the buyer strike ends, the conditions for a meaningful rebound will be stronger.\"</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ac494ab6270d0f00852bcbe4f20cfa3","relate_stocks":{"JOET":"Virtus Terranova U.S. Quality Momentum ETF","SEIM":"SEI Enhanced U.S. Large Cap Momentum Factor ETF","ROBN":"2倍做多HOOD ETF-T-REX","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","MVLL":"2倍做多MRVL ETF-GraniteShares","HOOG":"2倍做多HOOD ETF- Leverage Shares","HOOI":"Defiance Leveraged Long + Income HOOD ETF","HOII":"REX HOOD Growth & Income ETF","MTUM":"MSCI美国动量因素ETF-iShares Edge","HOOW":"Roundhill HOOD WeeklyPay™ ETF","MRVU":"Direxion Daily MRVL Bull 2X ETF","QMOM":"Alpha Architect U.S. Quantitative Momentum ETF","HOOX":"2倍做多HOOD ETF-Defiance","HOOD":"Robinhood","HOOY":"HOOD期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","MRVL":"迈威尔科技","HODU":"Direxion Daily HOOD Bull 2X ETF","HOOZ":"2倍做空HOOD ETF-Defiance","HOYY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST HOOD ETF","BK4588":"碎股","XMVM":"Invesco S&P MidCap Value with Momentum ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3777891","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2653080385","content_text":"动量交易的急速崩塌，正在重创其最忠实的拥趸——散户投资者。\n追踪散户最爱持仓的股票篮子本月跌幅创2022年以来最差，Jefferies编制的罗素1000高散户参与度篮子自6月以来已累计下跌逾25%。\n彭博追踪的11个量化因子中，动量因子7月表现垫底，成为本轮市场调整中受伤最深的策略。散户标志性的\"YOLO\"（你只活一次）式追涨操作，在这个月遭遇了正面冲击。\n多重利空叠加是此次动量交易崩塌的主因：对人工智能巨额投资回报的疑虑促使对冲基金以创纪录速度平仓科技头寸，伊朗局势重燃以及美联储利率路径的不确定性进一步打压了这一已严重拥挤的交易。散户的市场参与度随之明显降温——Vanda Research数据显示，个股周度滚动净买入额已跌至新冠疫情以来最低水平。\n动量因子遭遇四年最大回撤，散户首当其冲\n本月动量交易的溃败，对散户投资者造成了尤为直接的打击。\nRobinhood Markets和Marvell等散户重仓股均在其中，相关篮子本月跌幅为2022年以来最大。\nVanda Research全球宏观策略师Viraj Patel指出，\"半导体和AI硬件股票一直是动量策略的核心驱动力，这些名字在散户投资组合中由来已久。\"正是这种高度集中的持仓结构，使得动量因子的回撤对散户的杀伤力远超其他群体。\n多重利空叠加，拥挤交易加速瓦解\n此次动量交易的崩塌并非单一因素所致。\n据彭博报道，对AI投资回报前景的疑虑首先触发了对冲基金以创纪录速度削减科技头寸；随后，伊朗局势的再度紧张以及市场对美联储利率走向的担忧，进一步侵蚀了投资者对这一已高度拥挤交易的信心。\n在板块层面，科技类ETF遭遇大规模资金外流。\n散户参与度降至疫情以来最低，但并未全面撤退\n散户的市场活跃度在此轮冲击中明显收缩。\nVanda Research数据显示，个股周度滚动净买入额已降至新冠疫情以来最低水平。摩根大通证券数据则显示，截至本周三的当周散户资金流入总额为57亿美元，低于过去12个月68亿美元的周均水平。\n摩根大通的Arun Jain在报告中写道，\"散户参与度的放缓，与近期市场围绕动量回撤所呈现的紧张情绪高度吻合。\"\n不过，摩根大通数据同时显示，散户并未全面出逃，而是变得更加挑剔。\n微软和英伟达仍持续吸引可观的净买入，而苹果和特斯拉则承受了最大的卖出压力。Patel表示，\"散户资金流向正变得非常分散。不像去年'买入一切AI'的逻辑，现在散户的选股非常谨慎。\"\n华尔街建议逢低布局，动量因子现强劲反弹信号\n急速下跌已促使华尔街多家交易台建议客户逢低买入。\n瑞银证券的Michael Romano在客户报告中写道，此轮抛售可能已消化了大部分投机性泡沫，或已为价格筑底。美国银行交易台则敦促客户买入美国动量股，认为经历一轮获利了结后，该板块已进入具有吸引力的入场时机。\n从近期数据来看，反弹信号已经出现。美国银行的美国动量股篮子过去三个交易日上涨8.9%，为2024年11月以来最大三日涨幅；瑞银的动量指标更是飙升11%，创2022年以来最大三日涨幅。\nPatel表示，\"动量交易——以及散户——经历了一段过山车行情。但一旦卖出压力消退、买方罢工结束，实现有意义反弹的条件将愈发充分。\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HOOX":0.6,"HOOI":0.6,"HOOW":0.6,"HOOD":2,"MRVU":0.6,"SEIM":1.5,"JOET":1.5,"HOII":0.6,"HOOZ":0.6,"MTUM":1.5,"HODU":0.6,"XMVM":1.5,"HOYY":0.6,"HOOG":0.6,"QMOM":1.5,"MVLL":0.6,"MRVL":2,"HOOY":0.6,"ROBN":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":982,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":587526693872720,"gmtCreate":1784469322880,"gmtModify":1784469325169,"author":{"id":"4229146055222622","authorId":"4229146055222622","name":"大浪淘沙懒洋洋","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4229146055222622","idStr":"4229146055222622"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"🐮🍺","listText":"🐮🍺","text":"🐮🍺","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/587526693872720","repostId":"1160380075","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1160380075","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1784291413,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1160380075?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-07-17 20:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Reach out to South Korean chip giants again: SK Hynix and Samsung's \"excess profits\" may need to be shared with the United States","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160380075","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美国在要求三星、SK海力士赴美建厂之外，又提出应分享韩国芯片企业利润，理由是美国采购推动其盈利。据《韩国时报》援引知情人士报道，美国贸易代表办公室副代表Rick Switzer上月在与韩国通商部长官吕翰九的会谈中明确表示，美方有权分享SK海力士和三星电子的巨额利润。这一表态尚未获得美方官方确认，但已在韩国业界和政府层面引发关注。韩国芯片对美出口激增，为美方主张提供依据美方提出利润分享诉求，有具体的贸易数据作为支撑。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>In addition to asking Samsung and SK Hynix to build factories in the United States, the United States also proposed to share the profits of Korean chip companies, on the grounds that American procurement promoted their profits. If true, the semiconductor game between the United States and South Korea has extended from manufacturing investment to profit distribution, putting new policy pressure on South Korean chip giants.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">While pushing South Korean chip companies to build factories in the United States, the United States quietly put forward a more direct appeal-sharing profits.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">According to the Korea Times, citing people familiar with the matter, Rick Switzer, deputy representative of the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, made it clear in talks with South Korean Trade Minister Yoo Han-koo last month that the U.S. has the right to share the huge profits of SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics. This statement has not been officially confirmed by the United States, but it has aroused concern at the Korean industry and government level. At the same time, South Korea's semiconductor exports to the United States surged by more than 90% year-on-year in the first half of this year, providing a direct background for the above-mentioned claims of the United States.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">This trend means that the semiconductor game between the United States and South Korea is extending from the manufacturing localization level to the profit distribution level, putting new policy pressure on the two Korean chip giants.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_1094233157\" style=\"text-align: left;\">U.S. Logic: Purchasing Contributes Profits and Should Share the Income</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">According to the Korea Times, quoting an industry person familiar with the relevant situation, Rick Switzer proposed to Lu Hanjiu in the talks last month that American enterprises purchased a large number of Korean semiconductors, which directly promoted the profit growth of Korean chip enterprises, so the United States also had the right to share this part of the profits.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">\"The U.S. logic is that if local partners in South Korea are entitled to a share because they contribute some of the profits, then U.S. companies should have the same rights,\" the person said.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">A senior South Korean government official also confirmed to the Korea Times that the U.S. did make the above claim, but did not provide further explanation. The Korea Times repeatedly contacted the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative and the Commerce and Treasury departments for comment, but did not receive a response.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">South Korea's Ministry of Industry, Trade and Resources officials said they were not aware of the matter, and reiterated that South Korea's basic position is that \"industry-related matters should be advanced based on the principle of commercial rationality\". South Korean businesses have announced investment plans in line with last year's tariff agreement through business roundtables and have continued to make large-scale investments over the years, the official added.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_4192575052\" style=\"text-align: left;\">South Korean chip exports to the United States surge, providing basis for U.S. claims</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The US's demand for profit-sharing is supported by specific trade data.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">South Korea's total semiconductor exports reached a record 192.43 billion USD in the first half of this year, up 162.5% year-on-year, according to government data; Among them, exports to the United States increased by 91.3% to $26.4 billion.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The monthly data is more prominent. In June, South Korea's semiconductor exports increased by 199.2% year-on-year to $44.82 billion, a record high; Exports to the United States surged 377.2% year-on-year to $6.49 billion.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The continuous explosion of global demand for AI chips is the core driver of the above growth, and SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, as major global memory chip suppliers, have benefited significantly from it.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_3656104454\" style=\"text-align: left;\">In addition to the pressure of building factories, profit sharing becomes a new front</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Prior to this, Washington's public pressure on South Korean chip companies mainly focused on pushing them to build factories in the United States. Last week, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick publicly called on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix to build memory chip manufacturing plants in the United States, continuing the Trump administration's consistent stance of promoting localization of semiconductor production.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Both companies have announced major investment plans in the United States, but neither has specific plans to build advanced DRAM or NAND fabs in the United States at present.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The emergence of profit-sharing appeals means that the US pressure logic is expanding. If the requirements of building a factory point to the future capacity layout, then profit sharing directly points to the benefits that have been realized at present, and the short-term financial impact on the enterprise is more direct.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_1163015368\" style=\"text-align: left;\">How to distribute excess profits</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">It is worth noting that the US proposal of profit-sharing comes at a time when discussions around \"excess profits\" in South Korea have continued to ferment.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In recent months, there has been controversy in South Korea: whether Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix should redistribute some of their excess profits to subcontractors and suppliers along the supply chain-the latter also contributed to the realization of these profits to some extent; There is even a view that the public should benefit from taxpayer funds that have been used to support related infrastructure construction.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The intervention of the United States has added external variables to this distribution dispute, which originally belonged to South Korea, and also made the South Korean government and enterprises face a more complicated situation.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reach out to South Korean chip giants again: SK Hynix and Samsung's \"excess profits\" may need to be shared with the United States</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReach out to South Korean chip giants again: SK Hynix and Samsung's \"excess profits\" may need to be shared with the United States\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2026-07-17 20:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>In addition to asking Samsung and SK Hynix to build factories in the United States, the United States also proposed to share the profits of Korean chip companies, on the grounds that American procurement promoted their profits. If true, the semiconductor game between the United States and South Korea has extended from manufacturing investment to profit distribution, putting new policy pressure on South Korean chip giants.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">While pushing South Korean chip companies to build factories in the United States, the United States quietly put forward a more direct appeal-sharing profits.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">According to the Korea Times, citing people familiar with the matter, Rick Switzer, deputy representative of the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, made it clear in talks with South Korean Trade Minister Yoo Han-koo last month that the U.S. has the right to share the huge profits of SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics. This statement has not been officially confirmed by the United States, but it has aroused concern at the Korean industry and government level. At the same time, South Korea's semiconductor exports to the United States surged by more than 90% year-on-year in the first half of this year, providing a direct background for the above-mentioned claims of the United States.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">This trend means that the semiconductor game between the United States and South Korea is extending from the manufacturing localization level to the profit distribution level, putting new policy pressure on the two Korean chip giants.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_1094233157\" style=\"text-align: left;\">U.S. Logic: Purchasing Contributes Profits and Should Share the Income</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">According to the Korea Times, quoting an industry person familiar with the relevant situation, Rick Switzer proposed to Lu Hanjiu in the talks last month that American enterprises purchased a large number of Korean semiconductors, which directly promoted the profit growth of Korean chip enterprises, so the United States also had the right to share this part of the profits.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">\"The U.S. logic is that if local partners in South Korea are entitled to a share because they contribute some of the profits, then U.S. companies should have the same rights,\" the person said.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">A senior South Korean government official also confirmed to the Korea Times that the U.S. did make the above claim, but did not provide further explanation. The Korea Times repeatedly contacted the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative and the Commerce and Treasury departments for comment, but did not receive a response.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">South Korea's Ministry of Industry, Trade and Resources officials said they were not aware of the matter, and reiterated that South Korea's basic position is that \"industry-related matters should be advanced based on the principle of commercial rationality\". South Korean businesses have announced investment plans in line with last year's tariff agreement through business roundtables and have continued to make large-scale investments over the years, the official added.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_4192575052\" style=\"text-align: left;\">South Korean chip exports to the United States surge, providing basis for U.S. claims</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The US's demand for profit-sharing is supported by specific trade data.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">South Korea's total semiconductor exports reached a record 192.43 billion USD in the first half of this year, up 162.5% year-on-year, according to government data; Among them, exports to the United States increased by 91.3% to $26.4 billion.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The monthly data is more prominent. In June, South Korea's semiconductor exports increased by 199.2% year-on-year to $44.82 billion, a record high; Exports to the United States surged 377.2% year-on-year to $6.49 billion.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The continuous explosion of global demand for AI chips is the core driver of the above growth, and SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, as major global memory chip suppliers, have benefited significantly from it.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_3656104454\" style=\"text-align: left;\">In addition to the pressure of building factories, profit sharing becomes a new front</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Prior to this, Washington's public pressure on South Korean chip companies mainly focused on pushing them to build factories in the United States. Last week, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick publicly called on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix to build memory chip manufacturing plants in the United States, continuing the Trump administration's consistent stance of promoting localization of semiconductor production.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Both companies have announced major investment plans in the United States, but neither has specific plans to build advanced DRAM or NAND fabs in the United States at present.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The emergence of profit-sharing appeals means that the US pressure logic is expanding. If the requirements of building a factory point to the future capacity layout, then profit sharing directly points to the benefits that have been realized at present, and the short-term financial impact on the enterprise is more direct.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_1163015368\" style=\"text-align: left;\">How to distribute excess profits</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">It is worth noting that the US proposal of profit-sharing comes at a time when discussions around \"excess profits\" in South Korea have continued to ferment.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">In recent months, there has been controversy in South Korea: whether Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix should redistribute some of their excess profits to subcontractors and suppliers along the supply chain-the latter also contributed to the realization of these profits to some extent; There is even a view that the public should benefit from taxpayer funds that have been used to support related infrastructure construction.</p><p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">The intervention of the United States has added external variables to this distribution dispute, which originally belonged to South Korea, and also made the South Korean government and enterprises face a more complicated situation.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38b14d4c1528b585f44d427c7a09d860","relate_stocks":{"SKUU":"2倍做多海力士ETF-GraniteShares","07709":"南方两倍做多海力士","SKHX":"2倍做多海力士ETF-Leverage Shares","SKHY":"SK海力士","HYNX":"2倍做多海力士ETF-T-REX","SK":"2倍做多海力士ETF-Corgi","SKHZ":"1倍做空海力士ETF-Leverage Shares","SKHU":"2倍做多海力士-ProShares","07747":"南方两倍做多三星电子","SKDD":"2倍做空海力士ETF-GraniteShares"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160380075","content_text":"美国在要求三星、SK海力士赴美建厂之外，又提出应分享韩国芯片企业利润，理由是美国采购推动其盈利。若属实，美韩半导体博弈已从制造投资延伸至利润分配，对韩国芯片巨头构成新的政策压力。美国在推动韩国芯片企业赴美建厂的同时，悄然提出了一项更为直接的诉求——分享利润。据《韩国时报》援引知情人士报道，美国贸易代表办公室副代表Rick Switzer上月在与韩国通商部长官吕翰九的会谈中明确表示，美方有权分享SK海力士和三星电子的巨额利润。这一表态尚未获得美方官方确认，但已在韩国业界和政府层面引发关注。与此同时，韩国今年上半年对美半导体出口同比激增逾九成，为美方的上述主张提供了直接背景。这一动向意味着，美韩之间的半导体博弈正从制造业本地化层面向利润分配层面延伸，对两家韩国芯片巨头构成新的政策压力。美方逻辑：采购贡献利润，理应分享收益据《韩国时报》援引一位熟悉相关情况的业界人士，Rick Switzer在上月的会谈中向吕翰九提出，美国企业大量采购韩国半导体，直接推动了韩国芯片企业的盈利增长，因此美方同样有权分享这部分利润。\"美方的逻辑是，如果韩国本土合作伙伴因贡献了部分利润而有权获得分成，那么美国企业也应享有同等权利，\"该知情人士表示。一名韩国政府高级官员也向《韩国时报》证实，美方确实提出了上述主张，但未作进一步说明。《韩国时报》多次联系美国贸易代表办公室及商务部、财政部寻求置评，均未获回应。韩国产业通商资源部官员则表示，对此事并不知情，并重申韩国的基本立场是\"产业相关事务应基于商业合理性原则推进\"。该官员补充称，韩国企业已通过商业圆桌会议宣布了与去年关税协议相符的投资计划，并多年来持续进行了大规模投资。韩国芯片对美出口激增，为美方主张提供依据美方提出利润分享诉求，有具体的贸易数据作为支撑。韩国政府数据显示，今年上半年韩国半导体出口总额达到创纪录的1924.3亿美元，同比增长162.5%；其中对美出口增长91.3%，达264亿美元。单月数据更为突出。6月份，韩国半导体出口同比增长199.2%，达448.2亿美元，创历史新高；对美出口更是同比暴增377.2%，达64.9亿美元。全球AI芯片需求的持续爆发是上述增长的核心驱动力，SK海力士和三星电子作为全球主要存储芯片供应商，从中获益显著。建厂压力之外，利润分享成新战线在此之前，华盛顿对韩国芯片企业的公开施压主要集中在推动其赴美建厂。上周，美国商务部长Howard Lutnick公开呼吁三星电子和SK海力士在美国建设存储芯片制造工厂，延续特朗普政府推动半导体生产本地化的一贯立场。两家公司均已宣布重大对美投资计划，但目前均无在美建设先进DRAM或NAND晶圆厂的具体计划。利润分享诉求的浮现，意味着美方的施压逻辑正在扩展。如果说建厂要求指向的是未来的产能布局，那么利润分享则直接指向当下已经实现的收益，对企业的短期财务影响更为直接。超额利润该如何分配值得注意的是，美方提出利润分享主张之际，韩国国内围绕\"超额利润\"的讨论本已持续发酵。近几个月来，韩国国内一直存在争议：三星电子和SK海力士是否应将部分超额利润重新分配给供应链上的分包商和供应商——后者在一定程度上也为这些利润的实现作出了贡献；甚至有观点认为，由于纳税人资金曾用于支持相关基础设施建设，公众也应从中受益。美方的介入，使这一原本属于韩国国内的分配争议增添了外部变量，也令韩国政府和企业在应对上面临更为复杂的局面。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"07747":2,"SK":0.6,"SKHU":0.6,"SKDD":0.6,"HYNX":0.6,"SKHX":0.6,"SKHZ":0.6,"SKHY":2,"SKUU":0.6,"07709":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1095,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":568153710867456,"gmtCreate":1779738519513,"gmtModify":1779738523153,"author":{"id":"3573446332679706","authorId":"3573446332679706","name":"V y","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e9262203e5c721f64c6375096716462d","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573446332679706","idStr":"3573446332679706"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"MU already price in 2027","listText":"MU already price in 2027","text":"MU already price in 2027","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/568153710867456","repostId":"2638553272","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":994,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":561970664247584,"gmtCreate":1778231576241,"gmtModify":1778233459896,"author":{"id":"4232087637654622","authorId":"4232087637654622","name":"迷人的rr","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/default-avatar2.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4232087637654622","idStr":"4232087637654622"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/561970664247584","repostId":"2633438275","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2633438275","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1778229057,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2633438275?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-05-08 16:30","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Before Bubble Mart's earnings report, Deutsche Bank shouted to sell: overseas cooling, domestic exhaustion, and the whole year may turn negative growth","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2633438275","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"知名投资人段永平高调清仓中国神华、全力押注泡泡玛特，一度带动股价单日飙涨近6%。然而德意志银行当头泼冷水：海外销售环比最高骤降41%，核心IP二手价最高折价40%，2026年营收或现负增长，预测较市场一致预期低逾24%，目标价下调至140港元并维持卖出评级。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Duan Yongping, a well-known investor, increased his holdings in a high profile to boost market sentiment,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">Bubble Mart</a>The stock price rose nearly 6% in a single day on Friday. However,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>The research report was released the day before, maintaining a sell rating on this trendy play giant, and lowering the target price from HK$ 157 to HK$ 140, which still has about 14% downside compared with the current market price.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0987f047f1be9bcc670aa856c41fb359\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p>Duan Yongping posted on the social platform \"Snowball\" that he had put coal stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601088\">China Shenhua</a>All replaced with Bubble Mart, and joked, \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01088\">Shenhua</a>It is a very good company, and our investment has got a good return. Thank you and will come back if we have the opportunity in the future. \"This statement quickly triggered the market to follow suit, and the influx of southbound funds and retail investors became the main catalyst for the recent stock price rebound.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/10424ecec3f5289218e6f80f3d077d1d\" tg-width=\"684\" tg-height=\"169\"/></p><p>However, Sammi Xu, an analyst at Deutsche Bank, issued a clear warning about the fundamentals of Bubble Mart in his first-quarter performance forward report released on May 7th:<strong>Overseas markets continued to weaken month-on-month, and domestic IP popularity showed signs of weakness. If the current trend continues, the annual revenue in 2026 may experience negative year-on-year growth.</strong></p><p>Deutsche Bank's forecast is significantly different from the mainstream judgment of the market. The bank expects Bubble Mart's adjusted net profit to be 11.5 billion yuan in 2026, down 12% year-on-year and about 24% below the consensus estimate of 15.2 billion yuan. Deutsche Bank simultaneously cut its full-year revenue forecast by 14% to about 36.5 billion yuan, and cut its net profit forecast from 2026 to 2028 by 16% to 28%.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_3727421570\">Duan Yongping's overweight boosts sentiment, shares rebound in the short term</h2>The core force that promotes the recent stock price strength of Bubble Mart comes from the continuous statement and operation of Duan Yongping, a well-known investor. According to Deutsche Bank Research Report, Duan Yongping manages more than 17 billion US dollars of US stock assets through his H&H International Investment, and is known for his deep value and long-term Investment style. His bullish remarks on the \"Snowball\" platform have significant appeal to retail investors and southbound investors.</p><p>According to the research report of Deutsche Bank, Duan Yongping sold a large number of Bubble Mart put options between the exercise price of HK$145 and HK$150 in April. If all of them are exercised, the corresponding position size will account for about 3% of the total share capital of Bubble Mart. After the April option expired, he continued to sell put options with an exercise price of HK$155.</p><p>On May 7th, he further announced that he would sell other Hong Kong stock positions and directly buy Bubble Mart underlying shares. The above operations continue to push up the southbound capital inflow and the attention of retail investors, and become the main source of recent kinetic energy of stock prices.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_4015836120\">First Quarter Preview: Overseas Ring-on-Ring Decline, Domestic Support by Low Base</h2>Bubble Mart is expected to release its first-quarter operating data in mid-May and host its first quarterly management conference call. Deutsche Bank expects total revenue to be about 8.9 billion yuan in the first quarter, up 73% year-on-year, but this bright figure largely depends on the low base effect in the same period last year.</p><p>In terms of regions, the domestic market is expected to grow by 85% year-on-year in the first quarter, mainly driven by the peak holiday sales season and low base, with online sales increasing by 86% year-on-year and offline same-store sales growth rate (SSSG) reaching 42%.<strong>However, the month-on-month trend of overseas markets makes Deutsche Bank obviously cautious: the bank expects overseas sales to decline 27% month-on-month,</strong>Among them, Europe suffered the biggest decline, reaching 41%, North America fell 36%, and Asia was relatively resilient, with a decline of about 18%. Although the overseas market still recorded a year-on-year growth of about 60%, this was mainly due to the very low base in the first quarter of 2025, or did not reflect the real demand momentum.</p><p>Deutsche Bank also noted that the market's interpretation of the management conference call was divided-some investors saw it as a positive signal for the company to improve transparency, while others saw the delay in the release of operational data and the arrangement of the first conference call as an early warning signal of potential downside risks.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_696812560\">IP weakness spreads, domestic market shows signs of structural deceleration</h2>The deeper concern is that the popularity of Bubble Mart's core IP in the domestic market is fading. The research report pointed out,<strong>Recently released series such as \"The Monsters\" (Labubu) and \"Twinkle Twinkle\" have seen their prices drop significantly in The secondary market.</strong>Among them, the second-hand transaction price of Monster x Sanrio joint model is at a discount of up to 40% compared with the offer price; The latest series of \"Twinkle Twinkle\" was also sold at a discount, failing to replicate the premium effect of the previous Labubu series, which failed the market's previous expectation of its \"Labubu-like\" performance.</p><p>Deutsche Bank extrapolated the monthly trend of e-commerce in March 2026 to the end of the year. The calculation results show that domestic e-commerce sales may drop by 17% year-on-year in the second half of 2026. According to this judgment, the structural slowdown of Bubble Mart's domestic market may have begun to appear in the first quarter.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/81a70589809d9e774abd017aa5057353\" tg-width=\"1246\" tg-height=\"922\"/></p><p>In terms of quarter-on-quarter forecast, it is expected that the quarter-on-quarter changes of the domestic market in 2026 will be-19%, -2%, +14% and-9% respectively, while those of the overseas market will be-27%, -4%, +12% and-5%, and the total revenue for the whole year will decrease by about 2% year-on-year. The short rebound in the third quarter was mainly driven by the launch of \"Labubu 4.0\" and World Cup-related sales.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_977599487\">Operating leverage faces reversal as earnings forecast misses consensus by a significant margin</h2>There is a significant gap between Deutsche Bank's profit forecast of Bubble Mart in 2026 and the mainstream judgment of the market. The bank's annual revenue is expected to be 36.5 billion yuan, about 20% lower than the consensus market expectation of 45.5 billion yuan; The adjusted net profit was 11.6 billion yuan, about 24% lower than the consensus market expectation of 15.2 billion yuan; Earnings per share forecast is RMB8.51, which is 25% lower than the consensus estimate.</p><p>In addition to the pressure on the sales side, the reversal of operating leverage will further erode profit margins. Bubble Mart's EBIT profit margin in 2025 is as high as 45%, far exceeding the level of retail peers generally below 20%. However, with the decline of the growth rate of same-store sales and the high fixed cost brought by opening flagship stores in the core business districts of Europe and America, the pressure of profit margin contraction cannot be ignored. In addition, the sharp increase in inventory levels at the end of 2025 has also triggered Deutsche Bank's vigilance against potential inventory backlog and clearance risks, which may further damage brand value and financial soundness.</p><p><strong>Deutsche Bank lowered its 2026-2028 net profit forecast by 16% to 28% and lowered its DCF price target from HK$157 to HK$140, corresponding to 14 times the 2026 forecast P/E. The bank maintained a sell rating and pointed out that the current share price of HK$162.2 corresponds to about 16.4 times the expected P/E in 2026, and there is still downside in the valuation.</strong></p><p><h2 id=\"id_3772725662\">Investors pay attention to four major focuses, Labubu 4.0 becomes a key variable</h2>The report combs through the four topics that investors are most concerned about ahead of the upcoming management call.</p><p>First, the month-on-month sales trend in overseas regions. Since Bubble Mart usually only discloses year-on-year growth rather than absolute sales, the market lacks official month-on-month data, and investors are eager to know the true kinetic energy of each region.</p><p>Second, the latest sales in April and May. Given that the conference call will take place in mid-May, the market is looking to get an update on recent sales trends after the end of the first quarter.</p><p>Third, the annual operating profit margin guidance. The management mentioned at the 2025 full-year results meeting that the operating profit margin only narrowed by about 1 percentage point in the first two months of 2026, but Deutsche Bank believes that the monthly weakening of domestic sales after the Spring Festival and the high operating costs of overseas flagship stores make this profit margin level unsustainable.</p><p>Fourth, the release progress of \"Labubu 4.0\". Wang Ning, chairman of Bubble Mart, recently hinted in an interview that the series will bring \"brand-new content\", but the release time has been postponed before. The market is closely evaluating whether this IP can generate enough incremental sales to reverse the trend of declining brand popularity.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Before Bubble Mart's earnings report, Deutsche Bank shouted to sell: overseas cooling, domestic exhaustion, and the whole year may turn negative growth</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBefore Bubble Mart's earnings report, Deutsche Bank shouted to sell: overseas cooling, domestic exhaustion, and the whole year may turn negative growth\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2026-05-08 16:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Duan Yongping, a well-known investor, increased his holdings in a high profile to boost market sentiment,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">Bubble Mart</a>The stock price rose nearly 6% in a single day on Friday. However,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>The research report was released the day before, maintaining a sell rating on this trendy play giant, and lowering the target price from HK$ 157 to HK$ 140, which still has about 14% downside compared with the current market price.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0987f047f1be9bcc670aa856c41fb359\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p>Duan Yongping posted on the social platform \"Snowball\" that he had put coal stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601088\">China Shenhua</a>All replaced with Bubble Mart, and joked, \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01088\">Shenhua</a>It is a very good company, and our investment has got a good return. Thank you and will come back if we have the opportunity in the future. \"This statement quickly triggered the market to follow suit, and the influx of southbound funds and retail investors became the main catalyst for the recent stock price rebound.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/10424ecec3f5289218e6f80f3d077d1d\" tg-width=\"684\" tg-height=\"169\"/></p><p>However, Sammi Xu, an analyst at Deutsche Bank, issued a clear warning about the fundamentals of Bubble Mart in his first-quarter performance forward report released on May 7th:<strong>Overseas markets continued to weaken month-on-month, and domestic IP popularity showed signs of weakness. If the current trend continues, the annual revenue in 2026 may experience negative year-on-year growth.</strong></p><p>Deutsche Bank's forecast is significantly different from the mainstream judgment of the market. The bank expects Bubble Mart's adjusted net profit to be 11.5 billion yuan in 2026, down 12% year-on-year and about 24% below the consensus estimate of 15.2 billion yuan. Deutsche Bank simultaneously cut its full-year revenue forecast by 14% to about 36.5 billion yuan, and cut its net profit forecast from 2026 to 2028 by 16% to 28%.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_3727421570\">Duan Yongping's overweight boosts sentiment, shares rebound in the short term</h2>The core force that promotes the recent stock price strength of Bubble Mart comes from the continuous statement and operation of Duan Yongping, a well-known investor. According to Deutsche Bank Research Report, Duan Yongping manages more than 17 billion US dollars of US stock assets through his H&H International Investment, and is known for his deep value and long-term Investment style. His bullish remarks on the \"Snowball\" platform have significant appeal to retail investors and southbound investors.</p><p>According to the research report of Deutsche Bank, Duan Yongping sold a large number of Bubble Mart put options between the exercise price of HK$145 and HK$150 in April. If all of them are exercised, the corresponding position size will account for about 3% of the total share capital of Bubble Mart. After the April option expired, he continued to sell put options with an exercise price of HK$155.</p><p>On May 7th, he further announced that he would sell other Hong Kong stock positions and directly buy Bubble Mart underlying shares. The above operations continue to push up the southbound capital inflow and the attention of retail investors, and become the main source of recent kinetic energy of stock prices.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_4015836120\">First Quarter Preview: Overseas Ring-on-Ring Decline, Domestic Support by Low Base</h2>Bubble Mart is expected to release its first-quarter operating data in mid-May and host its first quarterly management conference call. Deutsche Bank expects total revenue to be about 8.9 billion yuan in the first quarter, up 73% year-on-year, but this bright figure largely depends on the low base effect in the same period last year.</p><p>In terms of regions, the domestic market is expected to grow by 85% year-on-year in the first quarter, mainly driven by the peak holiday sales season and low base, with online sales increasing by 86% year-on-year and offline same-store sales growth rate (SSSG) reaching 42%.<strong>However, the month-on-month trend of overseas markets makes Deutsche Bank obviously cautious: the bank expects overseas sales to decline 27% month-on-month,</strong>Among them, Europe suffered the biggest decline, reaching 41%, North America fell 36%, and Asia was relatively resilient, with a decline of about 18%. Although the overseas market still recorded a year-on-year growth of about 60%, this was mainly due to the very low base in the first quarter of 2025, or did not reflect the real demand momentum.</p><p>Deutsche Bank also noted that the market's interpretation of the management conference call was divided-some investors saw it as a positive signal for the company to improve transparency, while others saw the delay in the release of operational data and the arrangement of the first conference call as an early warning signal of potential downside risks.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_696812560\">IP weakness spreads, domestic market shows signs of structural deceleration</h2>The deeper concern is that the popularity of Bubble Mart's core IP in the domestic market is fading. The research report pointed out,<strong>Recently released series such as \"The Monsters\" (Labubu) and \"Twinkle Twinkle\" have seen their prices drop significantly in The secondary market.</strong>Among them, the second-hand transaction price of Monster x Sanrio joint model is at a discount of up to 40% compared with the offer price; The latest series of \"Twinkle Twinkle\" was also sold at a discount, failing to replicate the premium effect of the previous Labubu series, which failed the market's previous expectation of its \"Labubu-like\" performance.</p><p>Deutsche Bank extrapolated the monthly trend of e-commerce in March 2026 to the end of the year. The calculation results show that domestic e-commerce sales may drop by 17% year-on-year in the second half of 2026. According to this judgment, the structural slowdown of Bubble Mart's domestic market may have begun to appear in the first quarter.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/81a70589809d9e774abd017aa5057353\" tg-width=\"1246\" tg-height=\"922\"/></p><p>In terms of quarter-on-quarter forecast, it is expected that the quarter-on-quarter changes of the domestic market in 2026 will be-19%, -2%, +14% and-9% respectively, while those of the overseas market will be-27%, -4%, +12% and-5%, and the total revenue for the whole year will decrease by about 2% year-on-year. The short rebound in the third quarter was mainly driven by the launch of \"Labubu 4.0\" and World Cup-related sales.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_977599487\">Operating leverage faces reversal as earnings forecast misses consensus by a significant margin</h2>There is a significant gap between Deutsche Bank's profit forecast of Bubble Mart in 2026 and the mainstream judgment of the market. The bank's annual revenue is expected to be 36.5 billion yuan, about 20% lower than the consensus market expectation of 45.5 billion yuan; The adjusted net profit was 11.6 billion yuan, about 24% lower than the consensus market expectation of 15.2 billion yuan; Earnings per share forecast is RMB8.51, which is 25% lower than the consensus estimate.</p><p>In addition to the pressure on the sales side, the reversal of operating leverage will further erode profit margins. Bubble Mart's EBIT profit margin in 2025 is as high as 45%, far exceeding the level of retail peers generally below 20%. However, with the decline of the growth rate of same-store sales and the high fixed cost brought by opening flagship stores in the core business districts of Europe and America, the pressure of profit margin contraction cannot be ignored. In addition, the sharp increase in inventory levels at the end of 2025 has also triggered Deutsche Bank's vigilance against potential inventory backlog and clearance risks, which may further damage brand value and financial soundness.</p><p><strong>Deutsche Bank lowered its 2026-2028 net profit forecast by 16% to 28% and lowered its DCF price target from HK$157 to HK$140, corresponding to 14 times the 2026 forecast P/E. The bank maintained a sell rating and pointed out that the current share price of HK$162.2 corresponds to about 16.4 times the expected P/E in 2026, and there is still downside in the valuation.</strong></p><p><h2 id=\"id_3772725662\">Investors pay attention to four major focuses, Labubu 4.0 becomes a key variable</h2>The report combs through the four topics that investors are most concerned about ahead of the upcoming management call.</p><p>First, the month-on-month sales trend in overseas regions. Since Bubble Mart usually only discloses year-on-year growth rather than absolute sales, the market lacks official month-on-month data, and investors are eager to know the true kinetic energy of each region.</p><p>Second, the latest sales in April and May. Given that the conference call will take place in mid-May, the market is looking to get an update on recent sales trends after the end of the first quarter.</p><p>Third, the annual operating profit margin guidance. The management mentioned at the 2025 full-year results meeting that the operating profit margin only narrowed by about 1 percentage point in the first two months of 2026, but Deutsche Bank believes that the monthly weakening of domestic sales after the Spring Festival and the high operating costs of overseas flagship stores make this profit margin level unsustainable.</p><p>Fourth, the release progress of \"Labubu 4.0\". Wang Ning, chairman of Bubble Mart, recently hinted in an interview that the series will bring \"brand-new content\", but the release time has been postponed before. The market is closely evaluating whether this IP can generate enough incremental sales to reverse the trend of declining brand popularity.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f29dcd24b023d4290cb189dcda6d718e","relate_stocks":{"LU0345775950.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0348767384.USD":"ALLIANZLITTLE DRAGONS \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0307460666.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","PMRTY":"Pop Mart International Group Limited","LU0823426480.USD":"法巴中国股票经典Dis","LU0593848301.USD":"未来资产亚洲卓越消费股票基金A","LU0588546209.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - China Equity Fund AS SGD","LU0164880469.USD":"HSBC GIF HONG KONG EQUITY \"AC\" ACC","LU0499858602.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIA PACIFIC EQUITY OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0823426308.USD":"法巴中国股票基金","LU1880383366.USD":"东方汇理中国股票基金 A2 (C)","LU0359201612.USD":"贝莱德中国基金A2","SG9999002950.SGD":"United Asian Growth Opportunities SGD","LU0359202008.SGD":"Blackrock China Fund A2 SGD-H","IE0034224299.USD":"PINEBRIDGE ASIA EX JAPAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1770036033.HKD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIAN EQUITY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0039217434.USD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AD\" INC","LU1880383440.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS CHINA EQUITY \"A2\" (USD) INC","LU1023057109.AUD":"BGF CHINA \"A2\" (AUDHDG) ACC","LU1481107354.HKD":"HSBC GIF HONG KONG EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU0572944931.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 SGD","09992":"泡泡玛特","LU0231483743.USD":"abrdn SICAV I - ALL CHINA SUSTAINABLE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0149721374.USD":"HSBC GIF HONG KONG EQUITY \"AD\" INC","LU2543165471.USD":"E FUND (HK) GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","SGXZ86797644.SGD":"MAYBANK ASIAN GROWTH AND INCOME-I \"A\" (SGDHDG) INC","SG9999001069.SGD":"UOB UNITED ASIA PACIFIC GROWTH (SGD) ACC","LU0531971595.HKD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU0871576103.HKD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AC\" (HKD) ACC","LU0164865239.USD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","SGXZ62798434.SGD":"MAYBANK ASIAN GROWTH AND INCOME-I \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK1224":"专卖店","LU0611395673.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0359201885.HKD":"BGF CHINA \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","LU0499858438.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIA PACIFIC EQUITY OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0345776255.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0327786744.USD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 USD","LU0348766576.USD":"ALLIANZ LITTLE DRAGONS \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0211977185.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GREATER CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3771833","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2633438275","content_text":"知名投资人段永平高调增持提振市场情绪，泡泡玛特股价周五单日一度涨近6%。然而，德意志银行在前一天发布研报，对这家潮玩巨头维持卖出评级，并将目标价从157港元下调至140港元，与当前市价相比仍有约14%的下行空间。段永平在社交平台\"雪球\"发文称，已将煤炭股中国神华全部换成泡泡玛特，并调侃道\"神华是一家很好的公司，我们的投资也获得了很好的回报，在此谢过，将来有机会还会再回来。\"这一表态迅速引发市场跟风，南向资金及散户买盘涌入，成为近期股价反弹的主要催化剂。然而，德银分析师Sammi Xu在5月7日发布的一季度业绩前瞻报告中，对泡泡玛特的基本面发出明确警告：海外市场环比持续走弱，国内IP热度出现疲态，若当前趋势延续，2026年全年营收可能出现同比负增长。德银的预测与市场主流判断存在显著分歧。该行预计2026年泡泡玛特调整后净利润为115亿元人民币，同比下降12%，较市场一致预期的152亿元低出约24%。德银同步将全年营收预测下调14%至约365亿元，并将2026至2028年净利润预测削减16%至28%。段永平增持提振情绪，股价短线反弹推动泡泡玛特近期股价走强的核心力量，来自知名投资人段永平的持续表态与操作。据德银研报，段永平通过旗下H&H International Investment管理逾170亿美元的美股资产，以深度价值与长期投资风格著称，其在\"雪球\"平台上的看多言论对散户及南向投资者具有显著号召力。德银研报显示，段永平于4月在行权价145至150港元之间卖出大量泡泡玛特认沽期权，若全部行权，对应持仓规模约占泡泡玛特总股本的3%。4月期权到期后，他继续卖出行权价155港元的认沽期权。5月7日，他进一步宣布卖出其他港股持仓，直接买入泡泡玛特正股。上述操作持续推高南向资金流入及散户关注度，成为股价近期动能的主要来源。一季度预览：海外环比大幅下滑，国内靠低基数撑场泡泡玛特预计于5月中旬发布一季度运营数据，并首次举办季度管理层电话会议。德银预计，一季度总营收约为89亿元人民币，同比增长73%，但这一亮眼数字在很大程度上依赖于去年同期的低基数效应。分地区来看，国内市场一季度预计同比增长85%，主要受节假日销售旺季及低基数驱动，线上销售同比增长86%，线下同店销售增速（SSSG）达42%。然而，海外市场的环比走势令德银明显偏于谨慎：该行预计海外销售额环比下降27%，其中欧洲降幅最大，达41%，北美下滑36%，亚洲相对抗跌，降幅约18%。尽管海外市场同比仍有约60%的增长，但这主要源于2025年一季度的极低基数，或不反映真实需求动能。德银还注意到，市场对于此次管理层电话会议的解读存在分歧——部分投资者将其视为公司提升透明度的积极信号，另一些人则将运营数据发布时间的推迟，以及首次举办电话会议的安排，视为潜在下行风险的预警信号。IP疲态蔓延，国内市场出现结构性降速迹象更深层担忧，在于泡泡玛特核心IP在国内市场的热度正在消退。研报指出，\"The Monsters\"（Labubu）及\"Twinkle Twinkle\"等近期发售系列在二级市场的价格已明显回落。其中，Monster x Sanrio联名款的二手交易价格较发售价折价高达40%；\"Twinkle Twinkle\"最新系列同样以折价成交，未能复制此前Labubu系列的溢价效应，令市场此前对其\"类Labubu\"表现的预期落空。德银将2026年3月的电商月度趋势外推至年底，测算结果显示，2026年下半年国内电商销售额可能同比下降17%。该行据此判断，泡泡玛特国内市场的结构性放缓可能已于一季度开始显现。在季度环比预测上，预计2026年国内市场各季度环比变动分别为-19%、-2%、+14%、-9%，海外市场则为-27%、-4%、+12%、-5%，全年合计营收同比下降约2%。三季度的短暂回升，主要寄望于\"Labubu 4.0\"的发售以及世界杯相关销售拉动。盈利预测大幅低于市场一致预期，运营杠杆面临反转德银对泡泡玛特2026年的盈利预测，与市场主流判断存在显著落差。该行预计全年营收365亿元，较市场一致预期的455亿元低约20%；调整后净利润116亿元，较市场一致预期的152亿元低约24%；每股盈利预测8.51元人民币，较市场一致预期低25%。除销售端承压外，运营杠杆的反转将进一步侵蚀利润率。泡泡玛特2025年EBIT利润率高达45%，远超零售同业普遍低于20%的水平，但随着同店销售增速下滑，叠加在欧美核心商圈开设旗舰店带来的高额固定成本，利润率收缩压力不容忽视。此外，2025年底库存水平的大幅攀升，也引发德银对潜在库存积压及清货风险的警惕，认为这可能进一步损害品牌价值与财务稳健性。德银将2026至2028年净利润预测下调16%至28%，并将DCF目标价从157港元下调至140港元，对应2026年预期市盈率14倍。该行维持卖出评级，并指出当前股价162.2港元对应2026年预期市盈率约16.4倍，估值仍存在下行空间。投资者关注四大焦点，Labubu 4.0成关键变量报告梳理了投资者在即将到来的管理层电话会议前最为关注的四个议题。其一，海外各地区的环比销售趋势。由于泡泡玛特通常仅披露同比增速而非绝对销售额，市场缺乏官方的环比数据，投资者迫切希望了解各区域的真实动能。其二，4月及5月的最新销售情况。鉴于电话会议将于5月中旬举行，市场希望获得一季度结束后的近期销售趋势更新。其三，全年运营利润率指引。管理层在2025年全年业绩会上曾提及2026年前两个月运营利润率仅收窄约1个百分点，但德银认为，春节后国内销售的月度走软，以及海外旗舰店的高额运营成本，使得这一利润率水平难以持续。其四，\"Labubu 4.0\"的发售进展。泡泡玛特董事长王宁近期在采访中暗示该系列将带来\"全新内容\"，但发售时间此前已有推迟。市场正密切评估这一IP能否产生足够的增量销售，以扭转品牌热度下滑的趋势。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09992":1.98,"PMRTY":1.98}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":583,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":561968762904968,"gmtCreate":1778231116204,"gmtModify":1778233459590,"author":{"id":"4228454432134312","authorId":"4228454432134312","name":"cherry EFTY","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4228454432134312","idStr":"4228454432134312"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Q","listText":"Q","text":"Q","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/561968762904968","repostId":"2633438275","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2633438275","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1778229057,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2633438275?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-05-08 16:30","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Before Bubble Mart's earnings report, Deutsche Bank shouted to sell: overseas cooling, domestic exhaustion, and the whole year may turn negative growth","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2633438275","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"知名投资人段永平高调清仓中国神华、全力押注泡泡玛特，一度带动股价单日飙涨近6%。然而德意志银行当头泼冷水：海外销售环比最高骤降41%，核心IP二手价最高折价40%，2026年营收或现负增长，预测较市场一致预期低逾24%，目标价下调至140港元并维持卖出评级。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Duan Yongping, a well-known investor, increased his holdings in a high profile to boost market sentiment,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">Bubble Mart</a>The stock price rose nearly 6% in a single day on Friday. However,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>The research report was released the day before, maintaining a sell rating on this trendy play giant, and lowering the target price from HK$ 157 to HK$ 140, which still has about 14% downside compared with the current market price.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0987f047f1be9bcc670aa856c41fb359\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p>Duan Yongping posted on the social platform \"Snowball\" that he had put coal stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601088\">China Shenhua</a>All replaced with Bubble Mart, and joked, \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01088\">Shenhua</a>It is a very good company, and our investment has got a good return. Thank you and will come back if we have the opportunity in the future. \"This statement quickly triggered the market to follow suit, and the influx of southbound funds and retail investors became the main catalyst for the recent stock price rebound.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/10424ecec3f5289218e6f80f3d077d1d\" tg-width=\"684\" tg-height=\"169\"/></p><p>However, Sammi Xu, an analyst at Deutsche Bank, issued a clear warning about the fundamentals of Bubble Mart in his first-quarter performance forward report released on May 7th:<strong>Overseas markets continued to weaken month-on-month, and domestic IP popularity showed signs of weakness. If the current trend continues, the annual revenue in 2026 may experience negative year-on-year growth.</strong></p><p>Deutsche Bank's forecast is significantly different from the mainstream judgment of the market. The bank expects Bubble Mart's adjusted net profit to be 11.5 billion yuan in 2026, down 12% year-on-year and about 24% below the consensus estimate of 15.2 billion yuan. Deutsche Bank simultaneously cut its full-year revenue forecast by 14% to about 36.5 billion yuan, and cut its net profit forecast from 2026 to 2028 by 16% to 28%.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_3727421570\">Duan Yongping's overweight boosts sentiment, shares rebound in the short term</h2>The core force that promotes the recent stock price strength of Bubble Mart comes from the continuous statement and operation of Duan Yongping, a well-known investor. According to Deutsche Bank Research Report, Duan Yongping manages more than 17 billion US dollars of US stock assets through his H&H International Investment, and is known for his deep value and long-term Investment style. His bullish remarks on the \"Snowball\" platform have significant appeal to retail investors and southbound investors.</p><p>According to the research report of Deutsche Bank, Duan Yongping sold a large number of Bubble Mart put options between the exercise price of HK$145 and HK$150 in April. If all of them are exercised, the corresponding position size will account for about 3% of the total share capital of Bubble Mart. After the April option expired, he continued to sell put options with an exercise price of HK$155.</p><p>On May 7th, he further announced that he would sell other Hong Kong stock positions and directly buy Bubble Mart underlying shares. The above operations continue to push up the southbound capital inflow and the attention of retail investors, and become the main source of recent kinetic energy of stock prices.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_4015836120\">First Quarter Preview: Overseas Ring-on-Ring Decline, Domestic Support by Low Base</h2>Bubble Mart is expected to release its first-quarter operating data in mid-May and host its first quarterly management conference call. Deutsche Bank expects total revenue to be about 8.9 billion yuan in the first quarter, up 73% year-on-year, but this bright figure largely depends on the low base effect in the same period last year.</p><p>In terms of regions, the domestic market is expected to grow by 85% year-on-year in the first quarter, mainly driven by the peak holiday sales season and low base, with online sales increasing by 86% year-on-year and offline same-store sales growth rate (SSSG) reaching 42%.<strong>However, the month-on-month trend of overseas markets makes Deutsche Bank obviously cautious: the bank expects overseas sales to decline 27% month-on-month,</strong>Among them, Europe suffered the biggest decline, reaching 41%, North America fell 36%, and Asia was relatively resilient, with a decline of about 18%. Although the overseas market still recorded a year-on-year growth of about 60%, this was mainly due to the very low base in the first quarter of 2025, or did not reflect the real demand momentum.</p><p>Deutsche Bank also noted that the market's interpretation of the management conference call was divided-some investors saw it as a positive signal for the company to improve transparency, while others saw the delay in the release of operational data and the arrangement of the first conference call as an early warning signal of potential downside risks.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_696812560\">IP weakness spreads, domestic market shows signs of structural deceleration</h2>The deeper concern is that the popularity of Bubble Mart's core IP in the domestic market is fading. The research report pointed out,<strong>Recently released series such as \"The Monsters\" (Labubu) and \"Twinkle Twinkle\" have seen their prices drop significantly in The secondary market.</strong>Among them, the second-hand transaction price of Monster x Sanrio joint model is at a discount of up to 40% compared with the offer price; The latest series of \"Twinkle Twinkle\" was also sold at a discount, failing to replicate the premium effect of the previous Labubu series, which failed the market's previous expectation of its \"Labubu-like\" performance.</p><p>Deutsche Bank extrapolated the monthly trend of e-commerce in March 2026 to the end of the year. The calculation results show that domestic e-commerce sales may drop by 17% year-on-year in the second half of 2026. According to this judgment, the structural slowdown of Bubble Mart's domestic market may have begun to appear in the first quarter.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/81a70589809d9e774abd017aa5057353\" tg-width=\"1246\" tg-height=\"922\"/></p><p>In terms of quarter-on-quarter forecast, it is expected that the quarter-on-quarter changes of the domestic market in 2026 will be-19%, -2%, +14% and-9% respectively, while those of the overseas market will be-27%, -4%, +12% and-5%, and the total revenue for the whole year will decrease by about 2% year-on-year. The short rebound in the third quarter was mainly driven by the launch of \"Labubu 4.0\" and World Cup-related sales.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_977599487\">Operating leverage faces reversal as earnings forecast misses consensus by a significant margin</h2>There is a significant gap between Deutsche Bank's profit forecast of Bubble Mart in 2026 and the mainstream judgment of the market. The bank's annual revenue is expected to be 36.5 billion yuan, about 20% lower than the consensus market expectation of 45.5 billion yuan; The adjusted net profit was 11.6 billion yuan, about 24% lower than the consensus market expectation of 15.2 billion yuan; Earnings per share forecast is RMB8.51, which is 25% lower than the consensus estimate.</p><p>In addition to the pressure on the sales side, the reversal of operating leverage will further erode profit margins. Bubble Mart's EBIT profit margin in 2025 is as high as 45%, far exceeding the level of retail peers generally below 20%. However, with the decline of the growth rate of same-store sales and the high fixed cost brought by opening flagship stores in the core business districts of Europe and America, the pressure of profit margin contraction cannot be ignored. In addition, the sharp increase in inventory levels at the end of 2025 has also triggered Deutsche Bank's vigilance against potential inventory backlog and clearance risks, which may further damage brand value and financial soundness.</p><p><strong>Deutsche Bank lowered its 2026-2028 net profit forecast by 16% to 28% and lowered its DCF price target from HK$157 to HK$140, corresponding to 14 times the 2026 forecast P/E. The bank maintained a sell rating and pointed out that the current share price of HK$162.2 corresponds to about 16.4 times the expected P/E in 2026, and there is still downside in the valuation.</strong></p><p><h2 id=\"id_3772725662\">Investors pay attention to four major focuses, Labubu 4.0 becomes a key variable</h2>The report combs through the four topics that investors are most concerned about ahead of the upcoming management call.</p><p>First, the month-on-month sales trend in overseas regions. Since Bubble Mart usually only discloses year-on-year growth rather than absolute sales, the market lacks official month-on-month data, and investors are eager to know the true kinetic energy of each region.</p><p>Second, the latest sales in April and May. Given that the conference call will take place in mid-May, the market is looking to get an update on recent sales trends after the end of the first quarter.</p><p>Third, the annual operating profit margin guidance. The management mentioned at the 2025 full-year results meeting that the operating profit margin only narrowed by about 1 percentage point in the first two months of 2026, but Deutsche Bank believes that the monthly weakening of domestic sales after the Spring Festival and the high operating costs of overseas flagship stores make this profit margin level unsustainable.</p><p>Fourth, the release progress of \"Labubu 4.0\". Wang Ning, chairman of Bubble Mart, recently hinted in an interview that the series will bring \"brand-new content\", but the release time has been postponed before. The market is closely evaluating whether this IP can generate enough incremental sales to reverse the trend of declining brand popularity.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Before Bubble Mart's earnings report, Deutsche Bank shouted to sell: overseas cooling, domestic exhaustion, and the whole year may turn negative growth</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBefore Bubble Mart's earnings report, Deutsche Bank shouted to sell: overseas cooling, domestic exhaustion, and the whole year may turn negative growth\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2026-05-08 16:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Duan Yongping, a well-known investor, increased his holdings in a high profile to boost market sentiment,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">Bubble Mart</a>The stock price rose nearly 6% in a single day on Friday. However,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>The research report was released the day before, maintaining a sell rating on this trendy play giant, and lowering the target price from HK$ 157 to HK$ 140, which still has about 14% downside compared with the current market price.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0987f047f1be9bcc670aa856c41fb359\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p>Duan Yongping posted on the social platform \"Snowball\" that he had put coal stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601088\">China Shenhua</a>All replaced with Bubble Mart, and joked, \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01088\">Shenhua</a>It is a very good company, and our investment has got a good return. Thank you and will come back if we have the opportunity in the future. \"This statement quickly triggered the market to follow suit, and the influx of southbound funds and retail investors became the main catalyst for the recent stock price rebound.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/10424ecec3f5289218e6f80f3d077d1d\" tg-width=\"684\" tg-height=\"169\"/></p><p>However, Sammi Xu, an analyst at Deutsche Bank, issued a clear warning about the fundamentals of Bubble Mart in his first-quarter performance forward report released on May 7th:<strong>Overseas markets continued to weaken month-on-month, and domestic IP popularity showed signs of weakness. If the current trend continues, the annual revenue in 2026 may experience negative year-on-year growth.</strong></p><p>Deutsche Bank's forecast is significantly different from the mainstream judgment of the market. The bank expects Bubble Mart's adjusted net profit to be 11.5 billion yuan in 2026, down 12% year-on-year and about 24% below the consensus estimate of 15.2 billion yuan. Deutsche Bank simultaneously cut its full-year revenue forecast by 14% to about 36.5 billion yuan, and cut its net profit forecast from 2026 to 2028 by 16% to 28%.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_3727421570\">Duan Yongping's overweight boosts sentiment, shares rebound in the short term</h2>The core force that promotes the recent stock price strength of Bubble Mart comes from the continuous statement and operation of Duan Yongping, a well-known investor. According to Deutsche Bank Research Report, Duan Yongping manages more than 17 billion US dollars of US stock assets through his H&H International Investment, and is known for his deep value and long-term Investment style. His bullish remarks on the \"Snowball\" platform have significant appeal to retail investors and southbound investors.</p><p>According to the research report of Deutsche Bank, Duan Yongping sold a large number of Bubble Mart put options between the exercise price of HK$145 and HK$150 in April. If all of them are exercised, the corresponding position size will account for about 3% of the total share capital of Bubble Mart. After the April option expired, he continued to sell put options with an exercise price of HK$155.</p><p>On May 7th, he further announced that he would sell other Hong Kong stock positions and directly buy Bubble Mart underlying shares. The above operations continue to push up the southbound capital inflow and the attention of retail investors, and become the main source of recent kinetic energy of stock prices.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_4015836120\">First Quarter Preview: Overseas Ring-on-Ring Decline, Domestic Support by Low Base</h2>Bubble Mart is expected to release its first-quarter operating data in mid-May and host its first quarterly management conference call. Deutsche Bank expects total revenue to be about 8.9 billion yuan in the first quarter, up 73% year-on-year, but this bright figure largely depends on the low base effect in the same period last year.</p><p>In terms of regions, the domestic market is expected to grow by 85% year-on-year in the first quarter, mainly driven by the peak holiday sales season and low base, with online sales increasing by 86% year-on-year and offline same-store sales growth rate (SSSG) reaching 42%.<strong>However, the month-on-month trend of overseas markets makes Deutsche Bank obviously cautious: the bank expects overseas sales to decline 27% month-on-month,</strong>Among them, Europe suffered the biggest decline, reaching 41%, North America fell 36%, and Asia was relatively resilient, with a decline of about 18%. Although the overseas market still recorded a year-on-year growth of about 60%, this was mainly due to the very low base in the first quarter of 2025, or did not reflect the real demand momentum.</p><p>Deutsche Bank also noted that the market's interpretation of the management conference call was divided-some investors saw it as a positive signal for the company to improve transparency, while others saw the delay in the release of operational data and the arrangement of the first conference call as an early warning signal of potential downside risks.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_696812560\">IP weakness spreads, domestic market shows signs of structural deceleration</h2>The deeper concern is that the popularity of Bubble Mart's core IP in the domestic market is fading. The research report pointed out,<strong>Recently released series such as \"The Monsters\" (Labubu) and \"Twinkle Twinkle\" have seen their prices drop significantly in The secondary market.</strong>Among them, the second-hand transaction price of Monster x Sanrio joint model is at a discount of up to 40% compared with the offer price; The latest series of \"Twinkle Twinkle\" was also sold at a discount, failing to replicate the premium effect of the previous Labubu series, which failed the market's previous expectation of its \"Labubu-like\" performance.</p><p>Deutsche Bank extrapolated the monthly trend of e-commerce in March 2026 to the end of the year. The calculation results show that domestic e-commerce sales may drop by 17% year-on-year in the second half of 2026. According to this judgment, the structural slowdown of Bubble Mart's domestic market may have begun to appear in the first quarter.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/81a70589809d9e774abd017aa5057353\" tg-width=\"1246\" tg-height=\"922\"/></p><p>In terms of quarter-on-quarter forecast, it is expected that the quarter-on-quarter changes of the domestic market in 2026 will be-19%, -2%, +14% and-9% respectively, while those of the overseas market will be-27%, -4%, +12% and-5%, and the total revenue for the whole year will decrease by about 2% year-on-year. The short rebound in the third quarter was mainly driven by the launch of \"Labubu 4.0\" and World Cup-related sales.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_977599487\">Operating leverage faces reversal as earnings forecast misses consensus by a significant margin</h2>There is a significant gap between Deutsche Bank's profit forecast of Bubble Mart in 2026 and the mainstream judgment of the market. The bank's annual revenue is expected to be 36.5 billion yuan, about 20% lower than the consensus market expectation of 45.5 billion yuan; The adjusted net profit was 11.6 billion yuan, about 24% lower than the consensus market expectation of 15.2 billion yuan; Earnings per share forecast is RMB8.51, which is 25% lower than the consensus estimate.</p><p>In addition to the pressure on the sales side, the reversal of operating leverage will further erode profit margins. Bubble Mart's EBIT profit margin in 2025 is as high as 45%, far exceeding the level of retail peers generally below 20%. However, with the decline of the growth rate of same-store sales and the high fixed cost brought by opening flagship stores in the core business districts of Europe and America, the pressure of profit margin contraction cannot be ignored. In addition, the sharp increase in inventory levels at the end of 2025 has also triggered Deutsche Bank's vigilance against potential inventory backlog and clearance risks, which may further damage brand value and financial soundness.</p><p><strong>Deutsche Bank lowered its 2026-2028 net profit forecast by 16% to 28% and lowered its DCF price target from HK$157 to HK$140, corresponding to 14 times the 2026 forecast P/E. The bank maintained a sell rating and pointed out that the current share price of HK$162.2 corresponds to about 16.4 times the expected P/E in 2026, and there is still downside in the valuation.</strong></p><p><h2 id=\"id_3772725662\">Investors pay attention to four major focuses, Labubu 4.0 becomes a key variable</h2>The report combs through the four topics that investors are most concerned about ahead of the upcoming management call.</p><p>First, the month-on-month sales trend in overseas regions. Since Bubble Mart usually only discloses year-on-year growth rather than absolute sales, the market lacks official month-on-month data, and investors are eager to know the true kinetic energy of each region.</p><p>Second, the latest sales in April and May. Given that the conference call will take place in mid-May, the market is looking to get an update on recent sales trends after the end of the first quarter.</p><p>Third, the annual operating profit margin guidance. The management mentioned at the 2025 full-year results meeting that the operating profit margin only narrowed by about 1 percentage point in the first two months of 2026, but Deutsche Bank believes that the monthly weakening of domestic sales after the Spring Festival and the high operating costs of overseas flagship stores make this profit margin level unsustainable.</p><p>Fourth, the release progress of \"Labubu 4.0\". Wang Ning, chairman of Bubble Mart, recently hinted in an interview that the series will bring \"brand-new content\", but the release time has been postponed before. The market is closely evaluating whether this IP can generate enough incremental sales to reverse the trend of declining brand popularity.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f29dcd24b023d4290cb189dcda6d718e","relate_stocks":{"LU0345775950.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0348767384.USD":"ALLIANZLITTLE DRAGONS \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0307460666.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","PMRTY":"Pop Mart International Group Limited","LU0823426480.USD":"法巴中国股票经典Dis","LU0593848301.USD":"未来资产亚洲卓越消费股票基金A","LU0588546209.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - China Equity Fund AS SGD","LU0164880469.USD":"HSBC GIF HONG KONG EQUITY \"AC\" ACC","LU0499858602.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIA PACIFIC EQUITY OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0823426308.USD":"法巴中国股票基金","LU1880383366.USD":"东方汇理中国股票基金 A2 (C)","LU0359201612.USD":"贝莱德中国基金A2","SG9999002950.SGD":"United Asian Growth Opportunities SGD","LU0359202008.SGD":"Blackrock China Fund A2 SGD-H","IE0034224299.USD":"PINEBRIDGE ASIA EX JAPAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1770036033.HKD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIAN EQUITY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0039217434.USD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AD\" INC","LU1880383440.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS CHINA EQUITY \"A2\" (USD) INC","LU1023057109.AUD":"BGF CHINA \"A2\" (AUDHDG) ACC","LU1481107354.HKD":"HSBC GIF HONG KONG EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU0572944931.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 SGD","09992":"泡泡玛特","LU0231483743.USD":"abrdn SICAV I - ALL CHINA SUSTAINABLE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0149721374.USD":"HSBC GIF HONG KONG EQUITY \"AD\" INC","LU2543165471.USD":"E FUND (HK) GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","SGXZ86797644.SGD":"MAYBANK ASIAN GROWTH AND INCOME-I \"A\" (SGDHDG) INC","SG9999001069.SGD":"UOB UNITED ASIA PACIFIC GROWTH (SGD) ACC","LU0531971595.HKD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU0871576103.HKD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AC\" (HKD) ACC","LU0164865239.USD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","SGXZ62798434.SGD":"MAYBANK ASIAN GROWTH AND INCOME-I \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK1224":"专卖店","LU0611395673.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0359201885.HKD":"BGF CHINA \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","LU0499858438.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIA PACIFIC EQUITY OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0345776255.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0327786744.USD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 USD","LU0348766576.USD":"ALLIANZ LITTLE DRAGONS \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0211977185.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GREATER CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3771833","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2633438275","content_text":"知名投资人段永平高调增持提振市场情绪，泡泡玛特股价周五单日一度涨近6%。然而，德意志银行在前一天发布研报，对这家潮玩巨头维持卖出评级，并将目标价从157港元下调至140港元，与当前市价相比仍有约14%的下行空间。段永平在社交平台\"雪球\"发文称，已将煤炭股中国神华全部换成泡泡玛特，并调侃道\"神华是一家很好的公司，我们的投资也获得了很好的回报，在此谢过，将来有机会还会再回来。\"这一表态迅速引发市场跟风，南向资金及散户买盘涌入，成为近期股价反弹的主要催化剂。然而，德银分析师Sammi Xu在5月7日发布的一季度业绩前瞻报告中，对泡泡玛特的基本面发出明确警告：海外市场环比持续走弱，国内IP热度出现疲态，若当前趋势延续，2026年全年营收可能出现同比负增长。德银的预测与市场主流判断存在显著分歧。该行预计2026年泡泡玛特调整后净利润为115亿元人民币，同比下降12%，较市场一致预期的152亿元低出约24%。德银同步将全年营收预测下调14%至约365亿元，并将2026至2028年净利润预测削减16%至28%。段永平增持提振情绪，股价短线反弹推动泡泡玛特近期股价走强的核心力量，来自知名投资人段永平的持续表态与操作。据德银研报，段永平通过旗下H&H International Investment管理逾170亿美元的美股资产，以深度价值与长期投资风格著称，其在\"雪球\"平台上的看多言论对散户及南向投资者具有显著号召力。德银研报显示，段永平于4月在行权价145至150港元之间卖出大量泡泡玛特认沽期权，若全部行权，对应持仓规模约占泡泡玛特总股本的3%。4月期权到期后，他继续卖出行权价155港元的认沽期权。5月7日，他进一步宣布卖出其他港股持仓，直接买入泡泡玛特正股。上述操作持续推高南向资金流入及散户关注度，成为股价近期动能的主要来源。一季度预览：海外环比大幅下滑，国内靠低基数撑场泡泡玛特预计于5月中旬发布一季度运营数据，并首次举办季度管理层电话会议。德银预计，一季度总营收约为89亿元人民币，同比增长73%，但这一亮眼数字在很大程度上依赖于去年同期的低基数效应。分地区来看，国内市场一季度预计同比增长85%，主要受节假日销售旺季及低基数驱动，线上销售同比增长86%，线下同店销售增速（SSSG）达42%。然而，海外市场的环比走势令德银明显偏于谨慎：该行预计海外销售额环比下降27%，其中欧洲降幅最大，达41%，北美下滑36%，亚洲相对抗跌，降幅约18%。尽管海外市场同比仍有约60%的增长，但这主要源于2025年一季度的极低基数，或不反映真实需求动能。德银还注意到，市场对于此次管理层电话会议的解读存在分歧——部分投资者将其视为公司提升透明度的积极信号，另一些人则将运营数据发布时间的推迟，以及首次举办电话会议的安排，视为潜在下行风险的预警信号。IP疲态蔓延，国内市场出现结构性降速迹象更深层担忧，在于泡泡玛特核心IP在国内市场的热度正在消退。研报指出，\"The Monsters\"（Labubu）及\"Twinkle Twinkle\"等近期发售系列在二级市场的价格已明显回落。其中，Monster x Sanrio联名款的二手交易价格较发售价折价高达40%；\"Twinkle Twinkle\"最新系列同样以折价成交，未能复制此前Labubu系列的溢价效应，令市场此前对其\"类Labubu\"表现的预期落空。德银将2026年3月的电商月度趋势外推至年底，测算结果显示，2026年下半年国内电商销售额可能同比下降17%。该行据此判断，泡泡玛特国内市场的结构性放缓可能已于一季度开始显现。在季度环比预测上，预计2026年国内市场各季度环比变动分别为-19%、-2%、+14%、-9%，海外市场则为-27%、-4%、+12%、-5%，全年合计营收同比下降约2%。三季度的短暂回升，主要寄望于\"Labubu 4.0\"的发售以及世界杯相关销售拉动。盈利预测大幅低于市场一致预期，运营杠杆面临反转德银对泡泡玛特2026年的盈利预测，与市场主流判断存在显著落差。该行预计全年营收365亿元，较市场一致预期的455亿元低约20%；调整后净利润116亿元，较市场一致预期的152亿元低约24%；每股盈利预测8.51元人民币，较市场一致预期低25%。除销售端承压外，运营杠杆的反转将进一步侵蚀利润率。泡泡玛特2025年EBIT利润率高达45%，远超零售同业普遍低于20%的水平，但随着同店销售增速下滑，叠加在欧美核心商圈开设旗舰店带来的高额固定成本，利润率收缩压力不容忽视。此外，2025年底库存水平的大幅攀升，也引发德银对潜在库存积压及清货风险的警惕，认为这可能进一步损害品牌价值与财务稳健性。德银将2026至2028年净利润预测下调16%至28%，并将DCF目标价从157港元下调至140港元，对应2026年预期市盈率14倍。该行维持卖出评级，并指出当前股价162.2港元对应2026年预期市盈率约16.4倍，估值仍存在下行空间。投资者关注四大焦点，Labubu 4.0成关键变量报告梳理了投资者在即将到来的管理层电话会议前最为关注的四个议题。其一，海外各地区的环比销售趋势。由于泡泡玛特通常仅披露同比增速而非绝对销售额，市场缺乏官方的环比数据，投资者迫切希望了解各区域的真实动能。其二，4月及5月的最新销售情况。鉴于电话会议将于5月中旬举行，市场希望获得一季度结束后的近期销售趋势更新。其三，全年运营利润率指引。管理层在2025年全年业绩会上曾提及2026年前两个月运营利润率仅收窄约1个百分点，但德银认为，春节后国内销售的月度走软，以及海外旗舰店的高额运营成本，使得这一利润率水平难以持续。其四，\"Labubu 4.0\"的发售进展。泡泡玛特董事长王宁近期在采访中暗示该系列将带来\"全新内容\"，但发售时间此前已有推迟。市场正密切评估这一IP能否产生足够的增量销售，以扭转品牌热度下滑的趋势。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09992":1.98,"PMRTY":1.98}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":942,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":561964415996216,"gmtCreate":1778230132909,"gmtModify":1778230134895,"author":{"id":"4228386159123642","authorId":"4228386159123642","name":"长期主义的Cooper","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4228386159123642","idStr":"4228386159123642"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/561964415996216","repostId":"2633438275","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2633438275","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1778229057,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2633438275?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-05-08 16:30","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Before Bubble Mart's earnings report, Deutsche Bank shouted to sell: overseas cooling, domestic exhaustion, and the whole year may turn negative growth","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2633438275","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"知名投资人段永平高调清仓中国神华、全力押注泡泡玛特，一度带动股价单日飙涨近6%。然而德意志银行当头泼冷水：海外销售环比最高骤降41%，核心IP二手价最高折价40%，2026年营收或现负增长，预测较市场一致预期低逾24%，目标价下调至140港元并维持卖出评级。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Duan Yongping, a well-known investor, increased his holdings in a high profile to boost market sentiment,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">Bubble Mart</a>The stock price rose nearly 6% in a single day on Friday. However,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>The research report was released the day before, maintaining a sell rating on this trendy play giant, and lowering the target price from HK$ 157 to HK$ 140, which still has about 14% downside compared with the current market price.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0987f047f1be9bcc670aa856c41fb359\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p>Duan Yongping posted on the social platform \"Snowball\" that he had put coal stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601088\">China Shenhua</a>All replaced with Bubble Mart, and joked, \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01088\">Shenhua</a>It is a very good company, and our investment has got a good return. Thank you and will come back if we have the opportunity in the future. \"This statement quickly triggered the market to follow suit, and the influx of southbound funds and retail investors became the main catalyst for the recent stock price rebound.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/10424ecec3f5289218e6f80f3d077d1d\" tg-width=\"684\" tg-height=\"169\"/></p><p>However, Sammi Xu, an analyst at Deutsche Bank, issued a clear warning about the fundamentals of Bubble Mart in his first-quarter performance forward report released on May 7th:<strong>Overseas markets continued to weaken month-on-month, and domestic IP popularity showed signs of weakness. If the current trend continues, the annual revenue in 2026 may experience negative year-on-year growth.</strong></p><p>Deutsche Bank's forecast is significantly different from the mainstream judgment of the market. The bank expects Bubble Mart's adjusted net profit to be 11.5 billion yuan in 2026, down 12% year-on-year and about 24% below the consensus estimate of 15.2 billion yuan. Deutsche Bank simultaneously cut its full-year revenue forecast by 14% to about 36.5 billion yuan, and cut its net profit forecast from 2026 to 2028 by 16% to 28%.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_3727421570\">Duan Yongping's overweight boosts sentiment, shares rebound in the short term</h2>The core force that promotes the recent stock price strength of Bubble Mart comes from the continuous statement and operation of Duan Yongping, a well-known investor. According to Deutsche Bank Research Report, Duan Yongping manages more than 17 billion US dollars of US stock assets through his H&H International Investment, and is known for his deep value and long-term Investment style. His bullish remarks on the \"Snowball\" platform have significant appeal to retail investors and southbound investors.</p><p>According to the research report of Deutsche Bank, Duan Yongping sold a large number of Bubble Mart put options between the exercise price of HK$145 and HK$150 in April. If all of them are exercised, the corresponding position size will account for about 3% of the total share capital of Bubble Mart. After the April option expired, he continued to sell put options with an exercise price of HK$155.</p><p>On May 7th, he further announced that he would sell other Hong Kong stock positions and directly buy Bubble Mart underlying shares. The above operations continue to push up the southbound capital inflow and the attention of retail investors, and become the main source of recent kinetic energy of stock prices.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_4015836120\">First Quarter Preview: Overseas Ring-on-Ring Decline, Domestic Support by Low Base</h2>Bubble Mart is expected to release its first-quarter operating data in mid-May and host its first quarterly management conference call. Deutsche Bank expects total revenue to be about 8.9 billion yuan in the first quarter, up 73% year-on-year, but this bright figure largely depends on the low base effect in the same period last year.</p><p>In terms of regions, the domestic market is expected to grow by 85% year-on-year in the first quarter, mainly driven by the peak holiday sales season and low base, with online sales increasing by 86% year-on-year and offline same-store sales growth rate (SSSG) reaching 42%.<strong>However, the month-on-month trend of overseas markets makes Deutsche Bank obviously cautious: the bank expects overseas sales to decline 27% month-on-month,</strong>Among them, Europe suffered the biggest decline, reaching 41%, North America fell 36%, and Asia was relatively resilient, with a decline of about 18%. Although the overseas market still recorded a year-on-year growth of about 60%, this was mainly due to the very low base in the first quarter of 2025, or did not reflect the real demand momentum.</p><p>Deutsche Bank also noted that the market's interpretation of the management conference call was divided-some investors saw it as a positive signal for the company to improve transparency, while others saw the delay in the release of operational data and the arrangement of the first conference call as an early warning signal of potential downside risks.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_696812560\">IP weakness spreads, domestic market shows signs of structural deceleration</h2>The deeper concern is that the popularity of Bubble Mart's core IP in the domestic market is fading. The research report pointed out,<strong>Recently released series such as \"The Monsters\" (Labubu) and \"Twinkle Twinkle\" have seen their prices drop significantly in The secondary market.</strong>Among them, the second-hand transaction price of Monster x Sanrio joint model is at a discount of up to 40% compared with the offer price; The latest series of \"Twinkle Twinkle\" was also sold at a discount, failing to replicate the premium effect of the previous Labubu series, which failed the market's previous expectation of its \"Labubu-like\" performance.</p><p>Deutsche Bank extrapolated the monthly trend of e-commerce in March 2026 to the end of the year. The calculation results show that domestic e-commerce sales may drop by 17% year-on-year in the second half of 2026. According to this judgment, the structural slowdown of Bubble Mart's domestic market may have begun to appear in the first quarter.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/81a70589809d9e774abd017aa5057353\" tg-width=\"1246\" tg-height=\"922\"/></p><p>In terms of quarter-on-quarter forecast, it is expected that the quarter-on-quarter changes of the domestic market in 2026 will be-19%, -2%, +14% and-9% respectively, while those of the overseas market will be-27%, -4%, +12% and-5%, and the total revenue for the whole year will decrease by about 2% year-on-year. The short rebound in the third quarter was mainly driven by the launch of \"Labubu 4.0\" and World Cup-related sales.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_977599487\">Operating leverage faces reversal as earnings forecast misses consensus by a significant margin</h2>There is a significant gap between Deutsche Bank's profit forecast of Bubble Mart in 2026 and the mainstream judgment of the market. The bank's annual revenue is expected to be 36.5 billion yuan, about 20% lower than the consensus market expectation of 45.5 billion yuan; The adjusted net profit was 11.6 billion yuan, about 24% lower than the consensus market expectation of 15.2 billion yuan; Earnings per share forecast is RMB8.51, which is 25% lower than the consensus estimate.</p><p>In addition to the pressure on the sales side, the reversal of operating leverage will further erode profit margins. Bubble Mart's EBIT profit margin in 2025 is as high as 45%, far exceeding the level of retail peers generally below 20%. However, with the decline of the growth rate of same-store sales and the high fixed cost brought by opening flagship stores in the core business districts of Europe and America, the pressure of profit margin contraction cannot be ignored. In addition, the sharp increase in inventory levels at the end of 2025 has also triggered Deutsche Bank's vigilance against potential inventory backlog and clearance risks, which may further damage brand value and financial soundness.</p><p><strong>Deutsche Bank lowered its 2026-2028 net profit forecast by 16% to 28% and lowered its DCF price target from HK$157 to HK$140, corresponding to 14 times the 2026 forecast P/E. The bank maintained a sell rating and pointed out that the current share price of HK$162.2 corresponds to about 16.4 times the expected P/E in 2026, and there is still downside in the valuation.</strong></p><p><h2 id=\"id_3772725662\">Investors pay attention to four major focuses, Labubu 4.0 becomes a key variable</h2>The report combs through the four topics that investors are most concerned about ahead of the upcoming management call.</p><p>First, the month-on-month sales trend in overseas regions. Since Bubble Mart usually only discloses year-on-year growth rather than absolute sales, the market lacks official month-on-month data, and investors are eager to know the true kinetic energy of each region.</p><p>Second, the latest sales in April and May. Given that the conference call will take place in mid-May, the market is looking to get an update on recent sales trends after the end of the first quarter.</p><p>Third, the annual operating profit margin guidance. The management mentioned at the 2025 full-year results meeting that the operating profit margin only narrowed by about 1 percentage point in the first two months of 2026, but Deutsche Bank believes that the monthly weakening of domestic sales after the Spring Festival and the high operating costs of overseas flagship stores make this profit margin level unsustainable.</p><p>Fourth, the release progress of \"Labubu 4.0\". Wang Ning, chairman of Bubble Mart, recently hinted in an interview that the series will bring \"brand-new content\", but the release time has been postponed before. The market is closely evaluating whether this IP can generate enough incremental sales to reverse the trend of declining brand popularity.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Before Bubble Mart's earnings report, Deutsche Bank shouted to sell: overseas cooling, domestic exhaustion, and the whole year may turn negative growth</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBefore Bubble Mart's earnings report, Deutsche Bank shouted to sell: overseas cooling, domestic exhaustion, and the whole year may turn negative growth\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2026-05-08 16:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Duan Yongping, a well-known investor, increased his holdings in a high profile to boost market sentiment,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">Bubble Mart</a>The stock price rose nearly 6% in a single day on Friday. However,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>The research report was released the day before, maintaining a sell rating on this trendy play giant, and lowering the target price from HK$ 157 to HK$ 140, which still has about 14% downside compared with the current market price.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0987f047f1be9bcc670aa856c41fb359\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p>Duan Yongping posted on the social platform \"Snowball\" that he had put coal stocks<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601088\">China Shenhua</a>All replaced with Bubble Mart, and joked, \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01088\">Shenhua</a>It is a very good company, and our investment has got a good return. Thank you and will come back if we have the opportunity in the future. \"This statement quickly triggered the market to follow suit, and the influx of southbound funds and retail investors became the main catalyst for the recent stock price rebound.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/10424ecec3f5289218e6f80f3d077d1d\" tg-width=\"684\" tg-height=\"169\"/></p><p>However, Sammi Xu, an analyst at Deutsche Bank, issued a clear warning about the fundamentals of Bubble Mart in his first-quarter performance forward report released on May 7th:<strong>Overseas markets continued to weaken month-on-month, and domestic IP popularity showed signs of weakness. If the current trend continues, the annual revenue in 2026 may experience negative year-on-year growth.</strong></p><p>Deutsche Bank's forecast is significantly different from the mainstream judgment of the market. The bank expects Bubble Mart's adjusted net profit to be 11.5 billion yuan in 2026, down 12% year-on-year and about 24% below the consensus estimate of 15.2 billion yuan. Deutsche Bank simultaneously cut its full-year revenue forecast by 14% to about 36.5 billion yuan, and cut its net profit forecast from 2026 to 2028 by 16% to 28%.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_3727421570\">Duan Yongping's overweight boosts sentiment, shares rebound in the short term</h2>The core force that promotes the recent stock price strength of Bubble Mart comes from the continuous statement and operation of Duan Yongping, a well-known investor. According to Deutsche Bank Research Report, Duan Yongping manages more than 17 billion US dollars of US stock assets through his H&H International Investment, and is known for his deep value and long-term Investment style. His bullish remarks on the \"Snowball\" platform have significant appeal to retail investors and southbound investors.</p><p>According to the research report of Deutsche Bank, Duan Yongping sold a large number of Bubble Mart put options between the exercise price of HK$145 and HK$150 in April. If all of them are exercised, the corresponding position size will account for about 3% of the total share capital of Bubble Mart. After the April option expired, he continued to sell put options with an exercise price of HK$155.</p><p>On May 7th, he further announced that he would sell other Hong Kong stock positions and directly buy Bubble Mart underlying shares. The above operations continue to push up the southbound capital inflow and the attention of retail investors, and become the main source of recent kinetic energy of stock prices.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_4015836120\">First Quarter Preview: Overseas Ring-on-Ring Decline, Domestic Support by Low Base</h2>Bubble Mart is expected to release its first-quarter operating data in mid-May and host its first quarterly management conference call. Deutsche Bank expects total revenue to be about 8.9 billion yuan in the first quarter, up 73% year-on-year, but this bright figure largely depends on the low base effect in the same period last year.</p><p>In terms of regions, the domestic market is expected to grow by 85% year-on-year in the first quarter, mainly driven by the peak holiday sales season and low base, with online sales increasing by 86% year-on-year and offline same-store sales growth rate (SSSG) reaching 42%.<strong>However, the month-on-month trend of overseas markets makes Deutsche Bank obviously cautious: the bank expects overseas sales to decline 27% month-on-month,</strong>Among them, Europe suffered the biggest decline, reaching 41%, North America fell 36%, and Asia was relatively resilient, with a decline of about 18%. Although the overseas market still recorded a year-on-year growth of about 60%, this was mainly due to the very low base in the first quarter of 2025, or did not reflect the real demand momentum.</p><p>Deutsche Bank also noted that the market's interpretation of the management conference call was divided-some investors saw it as a positive signal for the company to improve transparency, while others saw the delay in the release of operational data and the arrangement of the first conference call as an early warning signal of potential downside risks.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_696812560\">IP weakness spreads, domestic market shows signs of structural deceleration</h2>The deeper concern is that the popularity of Bubble Mart's core IP in the domestic market is fading. The research report pointed out,<strong>Recently released series such as \"The Monsters\" (Labubu) and \"Twinkle Twinkle\" have seen their prices drop significantly in The secondary market.</strong>Among them, the second-hand transaction price of Monster x Sanrio joint model is at a discount of up to 40% compared with the offer price; The latest series of \"Twinkle Twinkle\" was also sold at a discount, failing to replicate the premium effect of the previous Labubu series, which failed the market's previous expectation of its \"Labubu-like\" performance.</p><p>Deutsche Bank extrapolated the monthly trend of e-commerce in March 2026 to the end of the year. The calculation results show that domestic e-commerce sales may drop by 17% year-on-year in the second half of 2026. According to this judgment, the structural slowdown of Bubble Mart's domestic market may have begun to appear in the first quarter.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/81a70589809d9e774abd017aa5057353\" tg-width=\"1246\" tg-height=\"922\"/></p><p>In terms of quarter-on-quarter forecast, it is expected that the quarter-on-quarter changes of the domestic market in 2026 will be-19%, -2%, +14% and-9% respectively, while those of the overseas market will be-27%, -4%, +12% and-5%, and the total revenue for the whole year will decrease by about 2% year-on-year. The short rebound in the third quarter was mainly driven by the launch of \"Labubu 4.0\" and World Cup-related sales.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_977599487\">Operating leverage faces reversal as earnings forecast misses consensus by a significant margin</h2>There is a significant gap between Deutsche Bank's profit forecast of Bubble Mart in 2026 and the mainstream judgment of the market. The bank's annual revenue is expected to be 36.5 billion yuan, about 20% lower than the consensus market expectation of 45.5 billion yuan; The adjusted net profit was 11.6 billion yuan, about 24% lower than the consensus market expectation of 15.2 billion yuan; Earnings per share forecast is RMB8.51, which is 25% lower than the consensus estimate.</p><p>In addition to the pressure on the sales side, the reversal of operating leverage will further erode profit margins. Bubble Mart's EBIT profit margin in 2025 is as high as 45%, far exceeding the level of retail peers generally below 20%. However, with the decline of the growth rate of same-store sales and the high fixed cost brought by opening flagship stores in the core business districts of Europe and America, the pressure of profit margin contraction cannot be ignored. In addition, the sharp increase in inventory levels at the end of 2025 has also triggered Deutsche Bank's vigilance against potential inventory backlog and clearance risks, which may further damage brand value and financial soundness.</p><p><strong>Deutsche Bank lowered its 2026-2028 net profit forecast by 16% to 28% and lowered its DCF price target from HK$157 to HK$140, corresponding to 14 times the 2026 forecast P/E. The bank maintained a sell rating and pointed out that the current share price of HK$162.2 corresponds to about 16.4 times the expected P/E in 2026, and there is still downside in the valuation.</strong></p><p><h2 id=\"id_3772725662\">Investors pay attention to four major focuses, Labubu 4.0 becomes a key variable</h2>The report combs through the four topics that investors are most concerned about ahead of the upcoming management call.</p><p>First, the month-on-month sales trend in overseas regions. Since Bubble Mart usually only discloses year-on-year growth rather than absolute sales, the market lacks official month-on-month data, and investors are eager to know the true kinetic energy of each region.</p><p>Second, the latest sales in April and May. Given that the conference call will take place in mid-May, the market is looking to get an update on recent sales trends after the end of the first quarter.</p><p>Third, the annual operating profit margin guidance. The management mentioned at the 2025 full-year results meeting that the operating profit margin only narrowed by about 1 percentage point in the first two months of 2026, but Deutsche Bank believes that the monthly weakening of domestic sales after the Spring Festival and the high operating costs of overseas flagship stores make this profit margin level unsustainable.</p><p>Fourth, the release progress of \"Labubu 4.0\". Wang Ning, chairman of Bubble Mart, recently hinted in an interview that the series will bring \"brand-new content\", but the release time has been postponed before. The market is closely evaluating whether this IP can generate enough incremental sales to reverse the trend of declining brand popularity.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f29dcd24b023d4290cb189dcda6d718e","relate_stocks":{"LU0345775950.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0348767384.USD":"ALLIANZLITTLE DRAGONS \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0307460666.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","PMRTY":"Pop Mart International Group Limited","LU0823426480.USD":"法巴中国股票经典Dis","LU0593848301.USD":"未来资产亚洲卓越消费股票基金A","LU0588546209.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - China Equity Fund AS SGD","LU0164880469.USD":"HSBC GIF HONG KONG EQUITY \"AC\" ACC","LU0499858602.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIA PACIFIC EQUITY OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0823426308.USD":"法巴中国股票基金","LU1880383366.USD":"东方汇理中国股票基金 A2 (C)","LU0359201612.USD":"贝莱德中国基金A2","SG9999002950.SGD":"United Asian Growth Opportunities SGD","LU0359202008.SGD":"Blackrock China Fund A2 SGD-H","IE0034224299.USD":"PINEBRIDGE ASIA EX JAPAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1770036033.HKD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIAN EQUITY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0039217434.USD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AD\" INC","LU1880383440.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS CHINA EQUITY \"A2\" (USD) INC","LU1023057109.AUD":"BGF CHINA \"A2\" (AUDHDG) ACC","LU1481107354.HKD":"HSBC GIF HONG KONG EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU0572944931.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 SGD","09992":"泡泡玛特","LU0231483743.USD":"abrdn SICAV I - ALL CHINA SUSTAINABLE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0149721374.USD":"HSBC GIF HONG KONG EQUITY \"AD\" INC","LU2543165471.USD":"E FUND (HK) GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","SGXZ86797644.SGD":"MAYBANK ASIAN GROWTH AND INCOME-I \"A\" (SGDHDG) INC","SG9999001069.SGD":"UOB UNITED ASIA PACIFIC GROWTH (SGD) ACC","LU0531971595.HKD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU0871576103.HKD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AC\" (HKD) ACC","LU0164865239.USD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","SGXZ62798434.SGD":"MAYBANK ASIAN GROWTH AND INCOME-I \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK1224":"专卖店","LU0611395673.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0359201885.HKD":"BGF CHINA \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","LU0499858438.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIA PACIFIC EQUITY OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0345776255.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF ASIAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0327786744.USD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 USD","LU0348766576.USD":"ALLIANZ LITTLE DRAGONS \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0211977185.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GREATER CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3771833","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2633438275","content_text":"知名投资人段永平高调增持提振市场情绪，泡泡玛特股价周五单日一度涨近6%。然而，德意志银行在前一天发布研报，对这家潮玩巨头维持卖出评级，并将目标价从157港元下调至140港元，与当前市价相比仍有约14%的下行空间。段永平在社交平台\"雪球\"发文称，已将煤炭股中国神华全部换成泡泡玛特，并调侃道\"神华是一家很好的公司，我们的投资也获得了很好的回报，在此谢过，将来有机会还会再回来。\"这一表态迅速引发市场跟风，南向资金及散户买盘涌入，成为近期股价反弹的主要催化剂。然而，德银分析师Sammi Xu在5月7日发布的一季度业绩前瞻报告中，对泡泡玛特的基本面发出明确警告：海外市场环比持续走弱，国内IP热度出现疲态，若当前趋势延续，2026年全年营收可能出现同比负增长。德银的预测与市场主流判断存在显著分歧。该行预计2026年泡泡玛特调整后净利润为115亿元人民币，同比下降12%，较市场一致预期的152亿元低出约24%。德银同步将全年营收预测下调14%至约365亿元，并将2026至2028年净利润预测削减16%至28%。段永平增持提振情绪，股价短线反弹推动泡泡玛特近期股价走强的核心力量，来自知名投资人段永平的持续表态与操作。据德银研报，段永平通过旗下H&H International Investment管理逾170亿美元的美股资产，以深度价值与长期投资风格著称，其在\"雪球\"平台上的看多言论对散户及南向投资者具有显著号召力。德银研报显示，段永平于4月在行权价145至150港元之间卖出大量泡泡玛特认沽期权，若全部行权，对应持仓规模约占泡泡玛特总股本的3%。4月期权到期后，他继续卖出行权价155港元的认沽期权。5月7日，他进一步宣布卖出其他港股持仓，直接买入泡泡玛特正股。上述操作持续推高南向资金流入及散户关注度，成为股价近期动能的主要来源。一季度预览：海外环比大幅下滑，国内靠低基数撑场泡泡玛特预计于5月中旬发布一季度运营数据，并首次举办季度管理层电话会议。德银预计，一季度总营收约为89亿元人民币，同比增长73%，但这一亮眼数字在很大程度上依赖于去年同期的低基数效应。分地区来看，国内市场一季度预计同比增长85%，主要受节假日销售旺季及低基数驱动，线上销售同比增长86%，线下同店销售增速（SSSG）达42%。然而，海外市场的环比走势令德银明显偏于谨慎：该行预计海外销售额环比下降27%，其中欧洲降幅最大，达41%，北美下滑36%，亚洲相对抗跌，降幅约18%。尽管海外市场同比仍有约60%的增长，但这主要源于2025年一季度的极低基数，或不反映真实需求动能。德银还注意到，市场对于此次管理层电话会议的解读存在分歧——部分投资者将其视为公司提升透明度的积极信号，另一些人则将运营数据发布时间的推迟，以及首次举办电话会议的安排，视为潜在下行风险的预警信号。IP疲态蔓延，国内市场出现结构性降速迹象更深层担忧，在于泡泡玛特核心IP在国内市场的热度正在消退。研报指出，\"The Monsters\"（Labubu）及\"Twinkle Twinkle\"等近期发售系列在二级市场的价格已明显回落。其中，Monster x Sanrio联名款的二手交易价格较发售价折价高达40%；\"Twinkle Twinkle\"最新系列同样以折价成交，未能复制此前Labubu系列的溢价效应，令市场此前对其\"类Labubu\"表现的预期落空。德银将2026年3月的电商月度趋势外推至年底，测算结果显示，2026年下半年国内电商销售额可能同比下降17%。该行据此判断，泡泡玛特国内市场的结构性放缓可能已于一季度开始显现。在季度环比预测上，预计2026年国内市场各季度环比变动分别为-19%、-2%、+14%、-9%，海外市场则为-27%、-4%、+12%、-5%，全年合计营收同比下降约2%。三季度的短暂回升，主要寄望于\"Labubu 4.0\"的发售以及世界杯相关销售拉动。盈利预测大幅低于市场一致预期，运营杠杆面临反转德银对泡泡玛特2026年的盈利预测，与市场主流判断存在显著落差。该行预计全年营收365亿元，较市场一致预期的455亿元低约20%；调整后净利润116亿元，较市场一致预期的152亿元低约24%；每股盈利预测8.51元人民币，较市场一致预期低25%。除销售端承压外，运营杠杆的反转将进一步侵蚀利润率。泡泡玛特2025年EBIT利润率高达45%，远超零售同业普遍低于20%的水平，但随着同店销售增速下滑，叠加在欧美核心商圈开设旗舰店带来的高额固定成本，利润率收缩压力不容忽视。此外，2025年底库存水平的大幅攀升，也引发德银对潜在库存积压及清货风险的警惕，认为这可能进一步损害品牌价值与财务稳健性。德银将2026至2028年净利润预测下调16%至28%，并将DCF目标价从157港元下调至140港元，对应2026年预期市盈率14倍。该行维持卖出评级，并指出当前股价162.2港元对应2026年预期市盈率约16.4倍，估值仍存在下行空间。投资者关注四大焦点，Labubu 4.0成关键变量报告梳理了投资者在即将到来的管理层电话会议前最为关注的四个议题。其一，海外各地区的环比销售趋势。由于泡泡玛特通常仅披露同比增速而非绝对销售额，市场缺乏官方的环比数据，投资者迫切希望了解各区域的真实动能。其二，4月及5月的最新销售情况。鉴于电话会议将于5月中旬举行，市场希望获得一季度结束后的近期销售趋势更新。其三，全年运营利润率指引。管理层在2025年全年业绩会上曾提及2026年前两个月运营利润率仅收窄约1个百分点，但德银认为，春节后国内销售的月度走软，以及海外旗舰店的高额运营成本，使得这一利润率水平难以持续。其四，\"Labubu 4.0\"的发售进展。泡泡玛特董事长王宁近期在采访中暗示该系列将带来\"全新内容\"，但发售时间此前已有推迟。市场正密切评估这一IP能否产生足够的增量销售，以扭转品牌热度下滑的趋势。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09992":1.98,"PMRTY":1.98}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":662,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":561957732795344,"gmtCreate":1778228425683,"gmtModify":1778229495955,"author":{"id":"4232084552653882","authorId":"4232084552653882","name":"观澜国际","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f8a14893569eea474737cf9e70983c67","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4232084552653882","idStr":"4232084552653882"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"1","listText":"1","text":"1","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/561957732795344","repostId":"2633821764","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2633821764","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1778223762,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2633821764?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-05-08 15:02","market":"nz","language":"zh","title":"\"TACO\" is out of date and Wall Street flooded with \"NACHO\" deals!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2633821764","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"华尔街正兴起“NACHO”（霍尔木兹海峡根本不可能重开）交易叙事，反映出市场对海峡短期重开已失去信心，投资者正将封锁和高油价视为“常态化特征”。这一逻辑重塑了油市、航运保险及利率定价，布油站稳百美元上方。尽管股市仍具韧性，但利率市场已开始为封锁引发的长效通胀冲击及衰退风险进行定价。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The \"NACHO\" (the Strait of Hormuz is simply impossible to reopen) trading narrative is emerging on Wall Street, reflecting that the market has lost confidence in the short-term reopening of the strait, and investors are viewing lockdowns and high oil prices as \"normalizing features\". This logic has reshaped the oil market, shipping insurance and interest rate pricing, and Brent oil has stood firm above 100 dollars. While equity markets remain resilient, interest rate markets have begun to price the long-term inflationary shocks and recession risks triggered by lockdowns.</p><p>\"The TACO deal is out of date.\" As outside concerns about Hormuz<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002320\">Straits</a>Doubts about whether the crisis can be resolved quickly continue to deepen, and Wall Street is embracing a new trading narrative-\"NACHO\".</p><p><strong>\"NACHO\", the acronym for \"Not a Chance Hormuz Opens\" (the Strait of Hormuz is simply impossible to reopen), has been circulating rapidly among traders and market commentators.</strong>The rise of this statement stems from widespread disappointment in the market that Trump has repeatedly made remarks about \"reopening the Straits as soon as possible\" but has never been able to promote real progress.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ETOR\">eToro</a>\"NACHO is essentially the market giving up expectations for a quick solution,\" market analyst Zavier Wong told the media. Last Thursday, the U.S. and Iran were still exchanging fire in the Strait of Hormuz, with both sides accusing each other of taking the lead in provocation, and the already precarious ceasefire agreement came under renewed pressure.</p><p>The spread of \"NACHO\" trading is reshaping the position layout in the oil market, shipping, inflation hedging and interest rate markets. Many industry veterans pointed out that,<strong>Investors are increasingly inclined to see the continued blockage of the Strait of Hormuz as a \"normalization feature\" of the macro background rather than a one-off geopolitical shock.</strong>Brent crude is still above $100, although it has fallen from a wartime high of $126 a barrel at the end of April<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002200\">Trading</a>This is more than 38% higher than the level before the escalation of the Middle East conflict.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6909353b108b1e9447453c1142fdeb95\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"701\"/></p><p><h2 id=\"id_1665048920\">Ceasefire is empty talk, markets lose patience</h2>The formation of \"NACHO\" trading has its clear market logic background. Wong noted, \"For most of this crisis, every ceasefire headline triggered a plunge in oil prices, and traders kept pricing a settlement — but it never came.\"</p><p>On Wednesday, Trump warned that Iran would suffer \"higher intensity\" bombardment if it refused to sign the peace deal. In an interview with ABC on Thursday, he insisted that the ceasefire was still in effect, calling the exchange lightly \"a love pat.\" The alternating appearance of contradictory signals exacerbates the uncertainty of the market about the direction of the situation.</p><p>In this context,<strong>The market has gradually shifted from \"deal resolution\" to \"deal stalemate\".</strong>Wong said, \"NACHO is a perception of the market-high oil prices are not temporary shocks that need to be bypassed, it is the current market environment.\"</p><p><h2 id=\"id_4186291096\">Insurance market sounds deep alert</h2>In addition to oil prices, the pricing of the shipping insurance market also continues to send warning signals. At its peak in March this year, the war risk premium for ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz at one point soared to about 2.5 percent of hull value, compared to about 0.1 percent before the war, Wong noted.</p><p>Although premiums have since pulled back, current levels are still about eight times what they were before the war, according to eToro data. \"Insurance companies are in the business of pricing risk, and they're clearly not treating this as a short-term resolution story,\" Wong said.</p><p>He believes that the pricing of the insurance market can better reflect the market's true judgment on the continuity of the situation than the oil price itself. \"The signal comes not only from the oil price, but also from the insurance market.\"</p><p><h2 id=\"id_752767693\">TACO vs NACHO?</h2>State Street<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/B73.SI\">Global Investments</a>Analysts at State Street Global Advisors pointed Out that the \"TACO\" (\"Trump Always Chickens Out\") deal and the \"NACHO\" deal were simultaneously interpreted in the second quarter.</p><p>In a recent report, the agency wrote, \"Despite high energy prices,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">S&P 500</a>The index is still rebounding to record highs, and both trades are playing out simultaneously. \"</p><p>State Street said traders remained cautiously optimistic that negotiations would eventually lead to a peace deal and reopen the Straits, but markets needed to see a \"tangible peace deal\" before resuming positive expectations of a sharp Fed rate cut. The agency also pointed out that if $100 per barrel becomes the new normal of crude oil prices in the next one to three months, it will be challenging for gold to maintain its upward movement around $5,000 per ounce; On the contrary, if the oil price drops to $80 due to the landing of the peace agreement, the gold price may quickly break through $5,000, and finally test $5,500.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_3101913334\">Interest rate market takes the lead in \"recognizing the account\" and risk assets are still waiting to see</h2>Despite the unusual resilience of the stock market, the polarization within the market has deepened. \"Overall, the market's response to the energy shock has been relatively orderly,\" said Vasileios Gkionakis, senior economist and strategist at Aviva Investors.</p><p>But he also pointed out that interest rate markets are increasingly reflecting concerns about prolonged energy shocks. \"The clearest signal comes from interest rate markets – short-end rates have been sharply repriced and most yield curves have flattened significantly.\" He warned that a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a \"more sustained inflationary shock\" and raise the probability of a global recession.</p><p>Gkionakis pointed out that only some markets have fully embraced NACHO logic at present-oil, shipping insurance and interest rate markets have clearly incorporated ongoing lockdowns into pricing, while broadly risky assets such as stocks remain relatively calm.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_357345710\">Deadlock or process rather than end</h2>While pessimism is taking hold among traders, Wong himself hasn't given up on expectations that the Straits will eventually reopen. He pointed out that the blockade is damaging Iran's own export revenues, and other countries are pressuring to reopen the strait, which constitute potential forces for an eventual shift in the situation.</p><p>\"The road ahead will probably still be tortuous, but the market seems to be beginning to accept that reality,\" Wong said. For investors, the core message of NACHO Exchange is:<strong>The structural impact of the Hormuz crisis on the macro pattern may be far more far-reaching and lasting than previously expected.</strong></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>\"TACO\" is out of date and Wall Street flooded with \"NACHO\" deals!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n\"TACO\" is out of date and Wall Street flooded with \"NACHO\" deals!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2026-05-08 15:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The \"NACHO\" (the Strait of Hormuz is simply impossible to reopen) trading narrative is emerging on Wall Street, reflecting that the market has lost confidence in the short-term reopening of the strait, and investors are viewing lockdowns and high oil prices as \"normalizing features\". This logic has reshaped the oil market, shipping insurance and interest rate pricing, and Brent oil has stood firm above 100 dollars. While equity markets remain resilient, interest rate markets have begun to price the long-term inflationary shocks and recession risks triggered by lockdowns.</p><p>\"The TACO deal is out of date.\" As outside concerns about Hormuz<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002320\">Straits</a>Doubts about whether the crisis can be resolved quickly continue to deepen, and Wall Street is embracing a new trading narrative-\"NACHO\".</p><p><strong>\"NACHO\", the acronym for \"Not a Chance Hormuz Opens\" (the Strait of Hormuz is simply impossible to reopen), has been circulating rapidly among traders and market commentators.</strong>The rise of this statement stems from widespread disappointment in the market that Trump has repeatedly made remarks about \"reopening the Straits as soon as possible\" but has never been able to promote real progress.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ETOR\">eToro</a>\"NACHO is essentially the market giving up expectations for a quick solution,\" market analyst Zavier Wong told the media. Last Thursday, the U.S. and Iran were still exchanging fire in the Strait of Hormuz, with both sides accusing each other of taking the lead in provocation, and the already precarious ceasefire agreement came under renewed pressure.</p><p>The spread of \"NACHO\" trading is reshaping the position layout in the oil market, shipping, inflation hedging and interest rate markets. Many industry veterans pointed out that,<strong>Investors are increasingly inclined to see the continued blockage of the Strait of Hormuz as a \"normalization feature\" of the macro background rather than a one-off geopolitical shock.</strong>Brent crude is still above $100, although it has fallen from a wartime high of $126 a barrel at the end of April<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002200\">Trading</a>This is more than 38% higher than the level before the escalation of the Middle East conflict.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6909353b108b1e9447453c1142fdeb95\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"701\"/></p><p><h2 id=\"id_1665048920\">Ceasefire is empty talk, markets lose patience</h2>The formation of \"NACHO\" trading has its clear market logic background. Wong noted, \"For most of this crisis, every ceasefire headline triggered a plunge in oil prices, and traders kept pricing a settlement — but it never came.\"</p><p>On Wednesday, Trump warned that Iran would suffer \"higher intensity\" bombardment if it refused to sign the peace deal. In an interview with ABC on Thursday, he insisted that the ceasefire was still in effect, calling the exchange lightly \"a love pat.\" The alternating appearance of contradictory signals exacerbates the uncertainty of the market about the direction of the situation.</p><p>In this context,<strong>The market has gradually shifted from \"deal resolution\" to \"deal stalemate\".</strong>Wong said, \"NACHO is a perception of the market-high oil prices are not temporary shocks that need to be bypassed, it is the current market environment.\"</p><p><h2 id=\"id_4186291096\">Insurance market sounds deep alert</h2>In addition to oil prices, the pricing of the shipping insurance market also continues to send warning signals. At its peak in March this year, the war risk premium for ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz at one point soared to about 2.5 percent of hull value, compared to about 0.1 percent before the war, Wong noted.</p><p>Although premiums have since pulled back, current levels are still about eight times what they were before the war, according to eToro data. \"Insurance companies are in the business of pricing risk, and they're clearly not treating this as a short-term resolution story,\" Wong said.</p><p>He believes that the pricing of the insurance market can better reflect the market's true judgment on the continuity of the situation than the oil price itself. \"The signal comes not only from the oil price, but also from the insurance market.\"</p><p><h2 id=\"id_752767693\">TACO vs NACHO?</h2>State Street<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/B73.SI\">Global Investments</a>Analysts at State Street Global Advisors pointed Out that the \"TACO\" (\"Trump Always Chickens Out\") deal and the \"NACHO\" deal were simultaneously interpreted in the second quarter.</p><p>In a recent report, the agency wrote, \"Despite high energy prices,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">S&P 500</a>The index is still rebounding to record highs, and both trades are playing out simultaneously. \"</p><p>State Street said traders remained cautiously optimistic that negotiations would eventually lead to a peace deal and reopen the Straits, but markets needed to see a \"tangible peace deal\" before resuming positive expectations of a sharp Fed rate cut. The agency also pointed out that if $100 per barrel becomes the new normal of crude oil prices in the next one to three months, it will be challenging for gold to maintain its upward movement around $5,000 per ounce; On the contrary, if the oil price drops to $80 due to the landing of the peace agreement, the gold price may quickly break through $5,000, and finally test $5,500.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_3101913334\">Interest rate market takes the lead in \"recognizing the account\" and risk assets are still waiting to see</h2>Despite the unusual resilience of the stock market, the polarization within the market has deepened. \"Overall, the market's response to the energy shock has been relatively orderly,\" said Vasileios Gkionakis, senior economist and strategist at Aviva Investors.</p><p>But he also pointed out that interest rate markets are increasingly reflecting concerns about prolonged energy shocks. \"The clearest signal comes from interest rate markets – short-end rates have been sharply repriced and most yield curves have flattened significantly.\" He warned that a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a \"more sustained inflationary shock\" and raise the probability of a global recession.</p><p>Gkionakis pointed out that only some markets have fully embraced NACHO logic at present-oil, shipping insurance and interest rate markets have clearly incorporated ongoing lockdowns into pricing, while broadly risky assets such as stocks remain relatively calm.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_357345710\">Deadlock or process rather than end</h2>While pessimism is taking hold among traders, Wong himself hasn't given up on expectations that the Straits will eventually reopen. He pointed out that the blockade is damaging Iran's own export revenues, and other countries are pressuring to reopen the strait, which constitute potential forces for an eventual shift in the situation.</p><p>\"The road ahead will probably still be tortuous, but the market seems to be beginning to accept that reality,\" Wong said. For investors, the core message of NACHO Exchange is:<strong>The structural impact of the Hormuz crisis on the macro pattern may be far more far-reaching and lasting than previously expected.</strong></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aab667b22ddd84f63ad2db656e8a0d4f","relate_stocks":{"TACO":"BERTO ACQUISITION CORP","BK4209":"餐馆","FAZ":"三倍做空金融ETF-Direxion"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3771830","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2633821764","content_text":"华尔街正兴起“NACHO”（霍尔木兹海峡根本不可能重开）交易叙事，反映出市场对海峡短期重开已失去信心，投资者正将封锁和高油价视为“常态化特征”。这一逻辑重塑了油市、航运保险及利率定价，布油站稳百美元上方。尽管股市仍具韧性，但利率市场已开始为封锁引发的长效通胀冲击及衰退风险进行定价。“TACO交易已经过时了。”随着外界对霍尔木兹海峡危机能否迅速化解的疑虑持续加深，华尔街正在拥抱一个新的交易叙事——“NACHO”。\"NACHO\"是\"Not A Chance Hormuz Opens\"（霍尔木兹海峡根本不可能重开）的首字母缩写，近期在交易员和市场评论人士中迅速流传。这一说法的兴起，源于市场对特朗普多次发表\"尽快重开海峡\"相关言论却始终未能推动实质进展的普遍失望。eToro市场分析师Zavier Wong对媒体表示，\"NACHO本质上是市场在放弃对快速解决方案的期待。\"上周四，美伊双方仍在霍尔木兹海峡互相交火，双方均指责对方率先挑衅，已然岌岌可危的停火协议再度承压。\"NACHO\"交易的蔓延，正在重塑油市、航运、通胀对冲及利率市场的仓位布局。多位行业资深人士指出，投资者越来越倾向于将霍尔木兹海峡的持续封堵视为宏观背景的\"常态化特征\"，而非一次性的地缘政治冲击。布伦特原油价格虽已从4月底每桶126美元的战时高点有所回落，但仍在100美元上方交投，较中东冲突升级前的水平高出逾38%。停火成空谈，市场失去耐心\"NACHO\"交易的形成有其清晰的市场逻辑背景。Wong指出，\"在这场危机的大部分时间里，每一条停火标题都会触发油价急跌，交易员不断对和解计价——但和解从未到来。\"上周三，特朗普警告称，若伊朗拒绝签署和平协议，将遭受\"更高烈度\"的轰炸，措辞强硬；上周四他又在接受ABC采访时坚称停火仍然有效，将双方交火轻描淡写地称为\"一记爱的轻拍\"。矛盾信号的交替出现，加剧了市场对局势走向的不确定性。在此背景下，市场已逐渐从\"交易解决\"转向\"交易僵局\"。Wong表示，\"NACHO是市场的一种认知——高油价不是需要绕过去的临时冲击，它就是当下的市场环境。\"保险市场发出深度警报油价之外，航运保险市场的定价同样在持续发出警示信号。Wong指出，今年3月高峰期，霍尔木兹海峡过境船只的战争险溢价一度飙升至船体价值的约2.5%，而战前仅约0.1%。据eToro数据，尽管溢价此后有所回落，当前水平仍约为战前的八倍。\"保险公司的业务就是给风险定价，而他们显然没有把这件事当作一个短期能解决的故事，\"Wong说。他认为，保险市场的定价比油价本身更能反映市场对局势持续性的真实判断，\"信号不只来自油价，也来自保险市场。\"TACO vs NACHO?道富环球投资管理（State Street Global Advisors）的分析师指出，\"TACO\"（\"Trump Always Chickens Out\"，特朗普总会退缩）交易与\"NACHO\"交易正在二季度同步演绎。该机构在近期报告中写道，\"尽管能源价格高企，标普500指数仍反弹至历史新高，两种交易正在同时上演。\"道富表示，交易员对谈判最终达成和平协议并重开海峡仍持审慎乐观态度，但市场在恢复对美联储大幅降息的积极预期之前，需要看到\"切实的和平协议\"。该机构还指出，若每桶100美元成为未来一至三个月原油价格的新常态，黄金在每盎司5000美元附近维持上行动能将面临挑战；反之，若油价因和平协议落地而降至80美元，金价或迅速突破5000美元，并最终考验5500美元。利率市场率先“认账”，风险资产仍在观望尽管股市表现出异乎寻常的韧性，但市场内部的分化已在加深。Aviva Investors高级经济学家兼策略师Vasileios Gkionakis表示，\"总体而言，市场对能源冲击的反应相对有序。\"但他同时指出，利率市场正越来越清晰地反映出对能源冲击长期化的担忧。\"最清晰的信号来自利率市场——短端利率已急剧重新定价，大多数收益率曲线出现显著平坦化。\"他警告称，若霍尔木兹海峡长期封锁，可能引发\"更具持续性的通胀冲击\"，同时提升全球经济陷入衰退的概率。Gkionakis指出，目前全面拥抱NACHO逻辑的仅是部分市场——油市、航运保险和利率市场已明显将持续封锁纳入定价，而股票等广泛风险资产则依然相对平静。僵局或是过程而非终局尽管悲观情绪正在交易员中扎根，但Wong本人并未放弃对海峡最终重开的预期。他指出，封锁正在损害伊朗自身的出口收入，且其他国家也在施压要求重开海峡，这些因素构成推动局势最终转变的潜在力量。\"前方的路大概仍将曲折，但市场似乎开始接受这一现实，\"Wong说。对投资者而言，NACHO交易所传递的核心信息在于：霍尔木兹危机对宏观格局的结构性影响，可能远比此前预期更为深远和持久。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TACO":1.5,"FAZ":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":723,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":561944953242440,"gmtCreate":1778225415435,"gmtModify":1778226069075,"author":{"id":"4232110102659182","authorId":"4232110102659182","name":"股神老马","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/default-avatar2.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4232110102659182","idStr":"4232110102659182"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"g","listText":"g","text":"g","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/561944953242440","repostId":"2633482363","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2633482363","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1778224193,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2633482363?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-05-08 15:09","market":"nz","language":"zh","title":"TSMC's revenue rose 17.5% year-on-year in April, and AI demand supported full-year expansion momentum","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2633482363","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"台积电4月营收新台币4107亿元，环比微降1.1%，同比增速由3月的45.2%骤降至17.5%。但前四月累计营收达1.5448万亿元新台币，同比仍劲增29.9%。背靠Alphabet、亚马逊等科技巨头高达7250亿美元的AI资本开支浪潮，台积电全年资本支出指引上限高达560亿美元。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>TSMC's revenue in April was NT$410.7 billion, down slightly by 1.1% month-on-month, and the year-on-year growth rate plummeted to 17.5% from 45.2% in March. However, the cumulative revenue in the first four months reached NT$1.5448 trillion, still up 29.9% year-on-year. Backed by the wave of AI capital expenditure of up to $725 billion by technology giants such as Alphabet and Amazon, TSMC's annual capital expenditure guidance ceiling is as high as $56 billion.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>The April revenue data was announced, and the monthly growth rate slowed down significantly, but the annual growth momentum remained steady.</p><p>TSMC's consolidated revenue in April 2026 was about NT$410.73 billion, down 1.1% from the previous month but up 17.5% from the same period last year, according to a Friday announcement. From January to April this year, the cumulative revenue reached NT$1.5448 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 29.9%.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acea9ae762f7b3d83bde79444ae451b3\" tg-width=\"1486\" tg-height=\"412\"/></p><p>Revenue fell slightly from the previous month in April, partially reflecting the fading of the high base effect in March. Previously, in March, the monthly revenue reached NT$415.19 billion, up 30.7% month-on-month and 45.2% year-on-year, pushing the overall revenue in the first quarter to break through the threshold of NT$1 trillion in a single quarter for the first time. The callback of April data is a normal seasonal adjustment to some extent, but the year-on-year growth rate narrowed sharply from 45.2% in March to 17.5%, and the narrowing rate deserves the attention of the market.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_2223917595\">Cumulative growth remains strong in the first four months</h2>According to the data previously disclosed by TSMC, the consolidated revenue in the first quarter of 2026 was about NT$1.134 trillion, equivalent to about USD 35.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 35.1%, slightly exceeding the average estimate of NT$1.12 trillion by analysts. This achievement marks the first time that TSMC's single-quarter revenue has crossed the NT $ trillion threshold, setting a high benchmark for full-year growth.</p><p>Despite the cooling of the monthly performance in April, TSMC's cumulative revenue in the first four months still reached NT$1.5448 trillion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 29.9%. This data shows that driven by the continuous demand for artificial intelligence-related chips, the company's overall revenue expansion trend has not loosened significantly. For investors, the growth performance of cumulative caliber may be more valuable than the monthly fluctuation.</p><p>Earlier this year, Alphabet,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>It was announced that the total AI-related capital expenditure this year will reach 725 billion US dollars, far exceeding previous expectations. TSMC as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>The core foundries of other head chip enterprises directly benefit from this capital wave.</p><p>In April this year, TSMC raised its full-year revenue guidance and said that full-year capital expenditure would trend towards the upper limit of the existing forecast range, which is as high as $56 billion, conveying management's positive expectations for the full-year economic outlook. TSMC shares have hit record highs this year, and the rally has also been dominated by the AI boom.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>TSMC's revenue rose 17.5% year-on-year in April, and AI demand supported full-year expansion momentum</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTSMC's revenue rose 17.5% year-on-year in April, and AI demand supported full-year expansion momentum\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2026-05-08 15:09</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>TSMC's revenue in April was NT$410.7 billion, down slightly by 1.1% month-on-month, and the year-on-year growth rate plummeted to 17.5% from 45.2% in March. However, the cumulative revenue in the first four months reached NT$1.5448 trillion, still up 29.9% year-on-year. Backed by the wave of AI capital expenditure of up to $725 billion by technology giants such as Alphabet and Amazon, TSMC's annual capital expenditure guidance ceiling is as high as $56 billion.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>The April revenue data was announced, and the monthly growth rate slowed down significantly, but the annual growth momentum remained steady.</p><p>TSMC's consolidated revenue in April 2026 was about NT$410.73 billion, down 1.1% from the previous month but up 17.5% from the same period last year, according to a Friday announcement. From January to April this year, the cumulative revenue reached NT$1.5448 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 29.9%.</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acea9ae762f7b3d83bde79444ae451b3\" tg-width=\"1486\" tg-height=\"412\"/></p><p>Revenue fell slightly from the previous month in April, partially reflecting the fading of the high base effect in March. Previously, in March, the monthly revenue reached NT$415.19 billion, up 30.7% month-on-month and 45.2% year-on-year, pushing the overall revenue in the first quarter to break through the threshold of NT$1 trillion in a single quarter for the first time. The callback of April data is a normal seasonal adjustment to some extent, but the year-on-year growth rate narrowed sharply from 45.2% in March to 17.5%, and the narrowing rate deserves the attention of the market.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_2223917595\">Cumulative growth remains strong in the first four months</h2>According to the data previously disclosed by TSMC, the consolidated revenue in the first quarter of 2026 was about NT$1.134 trillion, equivalent to about USD 35.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 35.1%, slightly exceeding the average estimate of NT$1.12 trillion by analysts. This achievement marks the first time that TSMC's single-quarter revenue has crossed the NT $ trillion threshold, setting a high benchmark for full-year growth.</p><p>Despite the cooling of the monthly performance in April, TSMC's cumulative revenue in the first four months still reached NT$1.5448 trillion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 29.9%. This data shows that driven by the continuous demand for artificial intelligence-related chips, the company's overall revenue expansion trend has not loosened significantly. For investors, the growth performance of cumulative caliber may be more valuable than the monthly fluctuation.</p><p>Earlier this year, Alphabet,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>It was announced that the total AI-related capital expenditure this year will reach 725 billion US dollars, far exceeding previous expectations. TSMC as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>The core foundries of other head chip enterprises directly benefit from this capital wave.</p><p>In April this year, TSMC raised its full-year revenue guidance and said that full-year capital expenditure would trend towards the upper limit of the existing forecast range, which is as high as $56 billion, conveying management's positive expectations for the full-year economic outlook. TSMC shares have hit record highs this year, and the rally has also been dominated by the AI boom.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b98f9e740cb6fb06990004c4ea7eae84","relate_stocks":{"BK4612":"AI芯片","LU1282649810.SGD":"Allianz Asian Multi Income Plus Cl AMg DIS H2-SGD","LU2294711713.HKD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"C\" (HKD) ACC","LU2133065610.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Dividend A (mth) SGD","LU2471134879.HKD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU0823421333.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU0823421416.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) INC","LU2471134523.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0359201885.HKD":"BGF CHINA \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","LU2247934214.USD":"FIDELITY FUNDS SUSTAINABLE FUTURE CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2458330169.SGD":"FRANKLIN SHARIAH TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU2471134796.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4526":"热门中概股","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","IE00BYQQ9H92.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL LEADERS \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2458330243.SGD":"FRANKLIN SHARIAH TECHNOLOGY \"A-H1\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU2750360641.GBP":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (GBPHDG) INC","LU2750360997.AUD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (AUDHDG) INC","LU0965509010.AUD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (AUDHDG) INC","LU2023251221.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AM\" (USD) INC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU1868838027.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES \"8\" (USD) ACC","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4512":"苹果概念","LU0175139822.USD":"AB FCP I Global Equity Blend A USD","LU0345770308.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0345770993.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00BZ199S13.USD":"BNY MELLON MOBILITY INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","BK4141":"半导体产品","LU2087625088.SGD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1868837722.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES \"2\" (USD) ACC","LU0965509283.SGD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU2089283258.USD":"安联环球可持续基金Cl AM Dis","BK4591":"室温超导概念","LU2041044095.USD":"Blackrock Circular Economy A2 USD","IE00BFXG0V08.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL LEADERS \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU1211504680.USD":"ALLIANZ HIGH DIVIDEND ASIA PACIFIC EQUITY \"AM\" (USD) INC","SGXZ99366536.SGD":"United Global Innovation A Acc SGD-H","LU1323610961.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - 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A survey spanning hundreds of interviews questioned —<strong>Is this key figure in the AI era worth entrusting the future?</strong></p><p>According to an in-depth report published by the New Yorker on April 6, the doubts about Altman did not come from outside,<strong>But from his closest colleagues and directors</strong>。 The first allegation of an internal memo was \"lying\". In their eyes, Altman is used to telling different versions of reality to different objects, and this person is dominating the direction of AI.</p><p>The five-day power storm of being fired and then quickly reinstated in 2023 did not clarify the issue, but deepened the question: When capital, employees and technical forces collectively take sides, has a CEO surpassed any substantive constraints?</p><p>At the same time, OpenAI is penetrating the military, Middle Eastern capital and sensitive national infrastructure, while<strong>The company's internal security commitment has been weakened, and \"security\" has even disappeared from the core business. The shell of idealism is being reshaped by real interests.</strong></p><p>The problem escalates as a result-it's not just personal integrity, it's structural risk:<strong>When<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AGBK\">AGI</a>The key is concentrated in the hands of a few people, and its credibility is doubtful. Does human beings still have the \"right to brake\"?</strong></p><p>Altman once said that AI needs a little \"fictional\" magic. But the real uncertainty is that when the boundary between reality and narrative begins to blur,<strong>Whether we are facing a genius who changed the world or a grand story that cannot be verified.</strong></p><p><h2><strong>\"Lies\"-secret memos from former colleagues</strong></h2>In the fall of 2023, OpenAI's chief scientist Ilya Sutskever secretly passed around 70 pages of compilations of internal documents to three other directors in the form of disappearing news. This batch of materials includes Slack chat records, human resources documents and explanatory text, some of which are kept in the form of mobile phone photos, obviously to avoid the monitoring of company equipment.</p><p>This batch of internal documents has never been fully disclosed before. One of the memos dedicated to Altman opens with a list,<strong>The title is \"Sam continues to show...\" and the first is: \"Lie.\"</strong></p><p>Sutskever's accumulation of these concerns has a thread of thought. He had been a friend of Altman and even officiated at the wedding of co-founder Greg Brockman in the OpenAI offices in 2019.</p><p>But his doubts about Altman grew as he became more convinced that the company was approaching its ultimate goal of creating AI that could rival or surpass human cognitive abilities. He told another director at the time:</p><p><strong>\"I don't think Sam is the one who should be holding the button.\"</strong></p><p>When AI policy expert Helen Toner and entrepreneur Tasha McCauley received these documents, they saw them as confirmation that the two women had formed similar judgments. \"He was given the future of humanity,\" one informed director told the New Yorker, \"but he was not trustworthy.\"</p><p><h2><strong>From Y Combinator to OpenAI: A Controversial Rise</strong></h2>Altman didn't come out of nowhere. His career model was formed well before OpenAI.</p><p>After a year and a half at Stanford, he joined Y Combinator (Y.C.), a startup incubator founded by renowned programmer Paul Graham.</p><p>His first company, Loopt, was a primitive social network based on the location of his phone, reflecting a longtime trait of him: reading vague rules as rules in his own favor.</p><p>During the Loopt period, employees were confused by his exaggeration. One former employee recalled Altman bragging about being a table tennis champion, \"Missouri high school table tennis champion or something,\" but was actually one of the worst players in the company.</p><p>Mark Jacobstein, a veteran employee who had been placed by investors as Altman's \"guardian\", later described the habit as:</p><p>\"'<strong>I think the line between 'I might be able to do it' and 'I've done it' is blurred</strong>In its most extreme form, it will lead to a Theranos scam (the famous Silicon Valley scam). \"</p><p>In 2014, before Graham retired, he promoted Altman to Chairman of Y.C. However, by 2018, several Y.C. partners were deeply dissatisfied with Altman's behavior, and according to statements from several people present at the time, the Grahams had a frank conversation with Altman that essentially forced him to leave.</p><p>Graham had privately told Y.C. colleagues that before Altman was asked to leave, \"Sam was cheating on us.\"</p><p>Altman himself maintains that he was never fired by Y.C. and that he left entirely by his own will. \"We don't have the legal authority to fire anyone. All we can do is apply moral pressure,\" Graham told the New Yorker in a relatively vague public statement.</p><p><h2><strong>The Founding of OpenAI: Recruiting Idealism with Doomsday Narratives</strong></h2>In 2015, Altman sent an email to Elon Musk, which laid the foundation for OpenAI.</p><p>Previously, Altman had always been a tech optimist, but his AI discourse quickly turned to a doomsday rhetoric. He has repeatedly warned, both privately and publicly: AI technology should not be dominated by large profit-seeking companies. \"If this is going to happen after all,\" he wrote to Musk, \"it would be better for someone outside Google to do it.\"</p><p>OpenAI was thus established, registered as a non-profit organization,<strong>The board of directors has a statutory duty to put human safety above the interests of the company, even above the survival of the company itself.</strong></p><p>The founders publicly claimed that AI may be the most dangerous invention in human history, and therefore requires an extraordinary corporate governance structure. This narrative is very inspiring: it successfully scatters the original<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Leading researchers in academia recruited to a new organization with poor funds.</p><p>As Sutskever recalled, the recruitment slogan was:<strong>\"You will save the world.\"</strong></p><p>However, there was an undercurrent of internal conflicts from the beginning. According to the more than 200 pages of private notes accumulated by Dario Amodei (who has since founded Anthropic) — documents that have never been publicly disclosed — Altman had different signals early on.</p><p>In 2019 with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>During the negotiation of the $1 billion investment, Amodei listed upholding the \"merger and assistance\" clause in the company's articles of association (if another company takes the lead in securely developing AGI, OpenAI will assist rather than compete) as the top negotiation bottom line, and received a verbal commitment from Altman.</p><p>But as the deal was nearing signing, Amodei discovered that a clause had been quietly added to the contract that gave Microsoft the ability to block any merger by OpenAI. He grilled Altman on the spot, who initially denied that the clause existed, and Amodei had to read the contract text verbatim and have another colleague confirm it in person.</p><p>Amodei later wrote in his notes:<strong>\"His words are almost certainly lies\".</strong></p><p><h2><strong>\"Coup\" and Restoration: Power Drama in Five Days</strong></h2>That weekend in November 2023, Altman was in Las Vegas watching an F1 car when the board read a statement over a video call informing him that he was no longer an OpenAI employee.</p><p>The news shook the entire tech world. Microsoft was only told minutes before the firing — and the strategic partner, which has poured more than $13 billion into OpenAI, was caught off guard. \"I was very shocked,\" Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella later said.</p><p>LinkedIn co-founder and OpenAI investor Reid Hoffman immediately launched a telephone survey to try to find out what mistake Altman had made. \"I had no idea what the fuck was going on,\" Hoffman told the New Yorker. \"We were looking for evidence of embezzlement, or sexual harassment, but we couldn't find anything.\"</p><p>Altman returned to his $27 million mansion in San Francisco and quickly formed an informal \"government in exile\" that included Airbnb co-founder Brian Chesky, investor Ron Conway and crisis publicist Chris Lehane. His phone records show that he talks more than 12 hours a day.</p><p>At the same time, he coordinated with Microsoft CEO Nadella and sent a clear signal to acting CEO Mira Murati that his allies are \"striking with all their might\" and are \"unearthing negative information\" to damage the reputation of those who have opposed him, including her. (Altman said he did not remember such a conversation.)</p><p>Under intense external pressure, most employees signed an open letter calling for Altman's reinstatement, and Sutskever eventually signed the letter.</p><p><strong>The board was forced to compromise, with Helen Toner and Tasha McCauley losing their seats, while two new additions (former Harvard President Lawrence Summers and former<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Facebook</a>CTO Bret Taylor) were both selected after in-depth communication with Altman.</strong></p><p>\"Can you do this: put Bret, Larry Summers, Adam on the board, let me be CEO, and then Bret will be in charge of the investigation?\" Altman texted Nadella. Within five days, he was reinstated.</p><p><strong>Employees refer to this history as \"the Blip,\" borrowing from Marvel movies where characters disappear and reappear unscathed, and the world is turned upside down.</strong></p><p><h2><strong>The investigation report that never went down</strong></h2>Dismissed directors will be subject to an independent investigation as one of the conditions of separation. OpenAI hired WilmerHale, a law firm that once led the internal investigation of Enron and WorldCom, to conduct this \"review\". But the entire process appears to have been deliberately designed to limit transparency, according to six people close to the investigation.</p><p>Investigators initially did not engage with a number of key parties; Some employees interviewed were afraid to speak frankly because they were worried about lack of anonymity. \"They focused only on the narrow window of time during the boardroom, not his long history of integrity,\" said one interviewed.</p><p>In March 2024, OpenAI announced that Altman had been cleared, but did not release any investigative reports. The company's official website only posted a statement of about 800 words, acknowledging that there was a \"break in trust\".</p><p>According to people familiar with the matter, there was no written report because it was not written at all, and the findings of the investigation were only presented to Summers and Taylor in the form of an oral briefing. \"The review did not conclude that Sam was honest,\" a person close to the investigation said, \"but it determined that he could remain CEO.\"</p><p>Several former and current employees who were present were shocked by the secrecy. Altman rejoined the board shortly after his reinstatement.</p><p><h2>From non-profit commitment of \"human security first\" to for-profit recapitalization</h2>OpenAI's initial setting was to constrain business impulses with a non-profit structure.<strong>The board of directors has an obligation to \"prioritize human safety over the success and even survival of the company\". But internal records show that promise has been eroding.</strong></p><p>At a board meeting in December 2022, Altman assured members that several functions of GPT-4 had been approved by the Security Review Committee. Toner requested access to documents and found that neither of the most controversial features — allowing users to \"fine-tune\" the model and deploy it as a personal assistant — had been approved.</p><p>Additionally, she learned that Microsoft had released an early version of ChatGPT in India ahead of schedule, skipping the necessary security review, which Altman never mentioned in multiple lengthy debriefs with the board.</p><p>When security researcher Jan Leike was appointed to lead the \"Super Alignment Team\", the official statement promised that the team would receive \"20%\" of the company's computing power. However, according to four witnesses, the actual allocated computing power is between 1% and 2%, and \"most of the super-aligned computing power is actually used by the oldest clusters with the worst chips\".</p><p>Leike complained to Murati, who told him not to mention it again because \"the promise was never realistic\".</p><p>In 2024, Sutskever and Leike left one after another.<strong>\"Security culture and processes have given way to shiny products,\" Leike wrote on social media. OpenAI has since disbanded its Super Alignment team, and the word \"security\" has also disappeared from the company's description of \"most important business activities\" in its latest IRS return.</strong></p><p><h2><strong>Trillion Bet: Betting on the Future of AI to Authoritarian Regimes</strong></h2>Altman's most ambitious bet in business, and the worst worry outside the world —<strong>It is to extend the construction of AI infrastructure to the authoritarian regime in the Middle East.</strong></p><p>Back in 2016, he met Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and privately called him a \"friend\". In 2018, a week after the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, Altman announced that he had joined the Saudi-dominated Neom advisory board for the Future Cities project, before pulling out after fierce opposition from colleagues.</p><p>But as one policy adviser recalled, Altman then began asking if he could somehow bypass moral pressure to continue receiving money from Saudi Arabia, \"the question isn't 'is this a bad thing' but 'if we do this, what are the consequences? Is there an export control problem? Is there going to be sanctions? Can I go undetected?'\"</p><p>In parallel, he turned his sights to the UAE. Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed al-Nahyan, the UAE president's brother and director of national intelligence, controls about $1.5 trillion in sovereign wealth, and he also runs the state-controlled AI group G42.</p><p>Altman has developed a deep personal relationship with him, calling him \"Dear Best Friend\" on social media, and was invited aboard his $250 million superyacht \"Maryah\" in 2024.</p><p>In 2023, Altman began secretly pushing for a plan dubbed \"ChipCo\": funded by the Gulf states<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBAY\">tens of billions</a>USD to build large-scale chip foundries and data centers in the Middle East. \"As far as I understand it, the board had no knowledge of the whole thing when it happened,\" said one director.</p><p>The Biden administration in the United States is deeply wary of this, and Commerce Department officials explicitly told Altman: \"We do not plan to build advanced chips in the UAE.\"</p><p>However, with Trump's return to the White House, the picture changed drastically. In the first week of his inauguration, Altman stood in the Roosevelt Room of the White House to announce the \"Stargate\" plan-a joint venture aimed at building a huge AI infrastructure network in the United States, totaling $500 billion.</p><p>Subsequently, the Biden administration's export restrictions on AI technology were abolished, Altman accompanied Trump on a visit to the Saudi royal family, and Saudi Arabia immediately announced the establishment of a large state-sponsored AI company. Meanwhile, OpenAI announced the construction of a data center campus in Abu Dhabi that is seven times the size of Central Park and consumes as much electricity as the entire city of Miami.</p><p>\"We are building portals through which we are truly summoning outliers,\" said a former OpenAI executive.<strong>\"Sam has added another gateway in the Middle East. This is one of the most irresponsible things ever.\"</strong></p><p><h2>Regulation and Lobbying: From 'Welcoming Regulation' to a Tough Counterattack to the Safety Act</h2>When it comes to public image, Altman has long played the outlier among tech giants-he actively called on the government to regulate AI, and even proposed the creation of a new federal regulator in 2023 when he testified before the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee.</p><p>Louisiana Sen. John Kennedy looked rather moved, leaning on his hand and saying that perhaps Altman himself should be left to enforce the rules.</p><p>But at the same time, according to Time magazine,<strong>OpenAI successfully lobbied between 2022 and 2023 to weaken an EU piece of legislation aimed at tightening regulation of large AI companies.</strong>In California, when an AI security bill with terms highly similar to Altman's previous congressional testimony was introduced to the legislature, OpenAI publicly opposed it and made threats privately.</p><p>\"During the year, we have seen increasingly cunning and deceptive behavior from OpenAI,\" a legislative aide told the New Yorker. Conway, the investor, lobbied political leaders including Nancy Pelosi and Gavin Newsom, and the bill was ultimately vetoed by Newsom after it passed Parliament.</p><p>This year, a pro-AI super PAC called Leading the Future began funding candidates who oppose AI regulation.</p><p>OpenAI officially said it would not donate to such organizations, but one of the committee's major contributors is Greg Brockman, pledging $50 million. That same year, the Brockmans also donated $25 million to MAGA Inc., a pro-Trump company.</p><p><h2><strong>The Anatomy of Power: The Contradictory Unity of Obedience and Manipulation of Others</strong></h2>Of the dozens of parties The New Yorker interviewed, most shared some kind of shared psychological portrait of Altman. A director said:</p><p><strong>\"He is not bound by the truth. He has two traits that almost never appear in the same person at the same time: the first is a strong desire to please others and be liked in every interaction; and the second is an almost antisocial indifference to the consequences of deceiving others.\"</strong></p><p>The director is not the only one to spontaneously use the term \"antisocial\". Aaron Swartz, Altman's contemporary in the first class of Y Combinator cadets and regarded as the spiritual legacy of the tech circle, expressed his concerns about Altman to a number of friends in strong words several years before his death.</p><p>Several senior Microsoft executives also said in interviews that despite Nadella's long-standing support, the relationship between Microsoft and Altman has become tense. One of them said:</p><p>\"He misled, misrepresented, renegotiated, broke his promises, and I think there is a certain possibility — not big but there is — that he will end up being remembered as a Bernie Madoff or Sam Bankman-Fried-level liar.\"</p><p>Altman and his supporters explain these allegations as \"normal competitive business practices,\" while his critics are sci-fi \"doomsayers,\" or losers jealous of his success.</p><p>\"He's so caught up in his self-belief,\" said former board member Sue Yoon, \"that he does things that don't have any logic in the real world. But he doesn't live in the real world.\"</p><p><h2><strong>The Trillion Dollar Question: Should He Rule It All</strong></h2>OpenAI is reportedly preparing for an IPO with a potential valuation of nearly $1 trillion. Altman is riding one of the fastest-growing start-ups in human history, and its financing scale — the latest single round exceeded $120 billion, four times the size of the largest private placement in history.</p><p>In the foreseeable future, this company's decisions will affect the lives of hundreds of millions of people: when AI should stop and when it should continue; Who it should help and whom it refuses to serve; On the battlefield, whether it can make autonomous decisions without human supervision.</p><p>The problem is not only that Altman is a morally flawed man – as anyone who has run a large company knows, this is not surprising in itself.</p><p>The problem is: OpenAI's reason for existence is based on a premise from beginning to end-it is different from other companies,<strong>Its leaders must possess \"extraordinary integrity\" because they master a technology that can change civilization.</strong></p><p>Sutskever was initially convinced of this mission, and it was because of this belief that he refused<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Google</a>Tens of millions of dollars a year.</p><p>In an interview, the reporter asked Altman whether running an AI company requires \"higher standards of integrity\".</p><p>This was supposed to be an easy question to answer. He hesitated, then said, \"I think many industries can have a huge impact on society, for better or worse.\" Moments later, he added, \"Yes, it requires greater integrity, and I feel the weight of that responsibility every day.\"</p><p>However, in OpenAI's latest IRS return, the description of \"security\" as the company's core business has disappeared.<strong>The former recruiting slogan: \"You will save the world\" has been replaced by a new slogan within the company: \"Feel AGI.\"</strong></p><p>As Altman once told the media in an almost philosophical tone, he allowed his AI models to retain a certain degree of \"fictional\" ability, rather than pursuing 100% accuracy, because \"that magic is people's favorite thing\". This, perhaps, is the best footnote to understand him personally. ▪</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Other Side of Altman: Lies, Schemes and Trillion Bets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Other Side of Altman: Lies, Schemes and Trillion Bets\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2026-04-07 19:53</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>When a company with the technology to reshape civilization rushes to a trillion-dollar valuation, the market cares about growth and computing power, but there is only one core issue around Sam Altman: trust. A survey spanning hundreds of interviews questioned —<strong>Is this key figure in the AI era worth entrusting the future?</strong></p><p>According to an in-depth report published by the New Yorker on April 6, the doubts about Altman did not come from outside,<strong>But from his closest colleagues and directors</strong>。 The first allegation of an internal memo was \"lying\". In their eyes, Altman is used to telling different versions of reality to different objects, and this person is dominating the direction of AI.</p><p>The five-day power storm of being fired and then quickly reinstated in 2023 did not clarify the issue, but deepened the question: When capital, employees and technical forces collectively take sides, has a CEO surpassed any substantive constraints?</p><p>At the same time, OpenAI is penetrating the military, Middle Eastern capital and sensitive national infrastructure, while<strong>The company's internal security commitment has been weakened, and \"security\" has even disappeared from the core business. The shell of idealism is being reshaped by real interests.</strong></p><p>The problem escalates as a result-it's not just personal integrity, it's structural risk:<strong>When<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AGBK\">AGI</a>The key is concentrated in the hands of a few people, and its credibility is doubtful. Does human beings still have the \"right to brake\"?</strong></p><p>Altman once said that AI needs a little \"fictional\" magic. But the real uncertainty is that when the boundary between reality and narrative begins to blur,<strong>Whether we are facing a genius who changed the world or a grand story that cannot be verified.</strong></p><p><h2><strong>\"Lies\"-secret memos from former colleagues</strong></h2>In the fall of 2023, OpenAI's chief scientist Ilya Sutskever secretly passed around 70 pages of compilations of internal documents to three other directors in the form of disappearing news. This batch of materials includes Slack chat records, human resources documents and explanatory text, some of which are kept in the form of mobile phone photos, obviously to avoid the monitoring of company equipment.</p><p>This batch of internal documents has never been fully disclosed before. One of the memos dedicated to Altman opens with a list,<strong>The title is \"Sam continues to show...\" and the first is: \"Lie.\"</strong></p><p>Sutskever's accumulation of these concerns has a thread of thought. He had been a friend of Altman and even officiated at the wedding of co-founder Greg Brockman in the OpenAI offices in 2019.</p><p>But his doubts about Altman grew as he became more convinced that the company was approaching its ultimate goal of creating AI that could rival or surpass human cognitive abilities. He told another director at the time:</p><p><strong>\"I don't think Sam is the one who should be holding the button.\"</strong></p><p>When AI policy expert Helen Toner and entrepreneur Tasha McCauley received these documents, they saw them as confirmation that the two women had formed similar judgments. \"He was given the future of humanity,\" one informed director told the New Yorker, \"but he was not trustworthy.\"</p><p><h2><strong>From Y Combinator to OpenAI: A Controversial Rise</strong></h2>Altman didn't come out of nowhere. His career model was formed well before OpenAI.</p><p>After a year and a half at Stanford, he joined Y Combinator (Y.C.), a startup incubator founded by renowned programmer Paul Graham.</p><p>His first company, Loopt, was a primitive social network based on the location of his phone, reflecting a longtime trait of him: reading vague rules as rules in his own favor.</p><p>During the Loopt period, employees were confused by his exaggeration. One former employee recalled Altman bragging about being a table tennis champion, \"Missouri high school table tennis champion or something,\" but was actually one of the worst players in the company.</p><p>Mark Jacobstein, a veteran employee who had been placed by investors as Altman's \"guardian\", later described the habit as:</p><p>\"'<strong>I think the line between 'I might be able to do it' and 'I've done it' is blurred</strong>In its most extreme form, it will lead to a Theranos scam (the famous Silicon Valley scam). \"</p><p>In 2014, before Graham retired, he promoted Altman to Chairman of Y.C. However, by 2018, several Y.C. partners were deeply dissatisfied with Altman's behavior, and according to statements from several people present at the time, the Grahams had a frank conversation with Altman that essentially forced him to leave.</p><p>Graham had privately told Y.C. colleagues that before Altman was asked to leave, \"Sam was cheating on us.\"</p><p>Altman himself maintains that he was never fired by Y.C. and that he left entirely by his own will. \"We don't have the legal authority to fire anyone. All we can do is apply moral pressure,\" Graham told the New Yorker in a relatively vague public statement.</p><p><h2><strong>The Founding of OpenAI: Recruiting Idealism with Doomsday Narratives</strong></h2>In 2015, Altman sent an email to Elon Musk, which laid the foundation for OpenAI.</p><p>Previously, Altman had always been a tech optimist, but his AI discourse quickly turned to a doomsday rhetoric. He has repeatedly warned, both privately and publicly: AI technology should not be dominated by large profit-seeking companies. \"If this is going to happen after all,\" he wrote to Musk, \"it would be better for someone outside Google to do it.\"</p><p>OpenAI was thus established, registered as a non-profit organization,<strong>The board of directors has a statutory duty to put human safety above the interests of the company, even above the survival of the company itself.</strong></p><p>The founders publicly claimed that AI may be the most dangerous invention in human history, and therefore requires an extraordinary corporate governance structure. This narrative is very inspiring: it successfully scatters the original<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>Leading researchers in academia recruited to a new organization with poor funds.</p><p>As Sutskever recalled, the recruitment slogan was:<strong>\"You will save the world.\"</strong></p><p>However, there was an undercurrent of internal conflicts from the beginning. According to the more than 200 pages of private notes accumulated by Dario Amodei (who has since founded Anthropic) — documents that have never been publicly disclosed — Altman had different signals early on.</p><p>In 2019 with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>During the negotiation of the $1 billion investment, Amodei listed upholding the \"merger and assistance\" clause in the company's articles of association (if another company takes the lead in securely developing AGI, OpenAI will assist rather than compete) as the top negotiation bottom line, and received a verbal commitment from Altman.</p><p>But as the deal was nearing signing, Amodei discovered that a clause had been quietly added to the contract that gave Microsoft the ability to block any merger by OpenAI. He grilled Altman on the spot, who initially denied that the clause existed, and Amodei had to read the contract text verbatim and have another colleague confirm it in person.</p><p>Amodei later wrote in his notes:<strong>\"His words are almost certainly lies\".</strong></p><p><h2><strong>\"Coup\" and Restoration: Power Drama in Five Days</strong></h2>That weekend in November 2023, Altman was in Las Vegas watching an F1 car when the board read a statement over a video call informing him that he was no longer an OpenAI employee.</p><p>The news shook the entire tech world. Microsoft was only told minutes before the firing — and the strategic partner, which has poured more than $13 billion into OpenAI, was caught off guard. \"I was very shocked,\" Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella later said.</p><p>LinkedIn co-founder and OpenAI investor Reid Hoffman immediately launched a telephone survey to try to find out what mistake Altman had made. \"I had no idea what the fuck was going on,\" Hoffman told the New Yorker. \"We were looking for evidence of embezzlement, or sexual harassment, but we couldn't find anything.\"</p><p>Altman returned to his $27 million mansion in San Francisco and quickly formed an informal \"government in exile\" that included Airbnb co-founder Brian Chesky, investor Ron Conway and crisis publicist Chris Lehane. His phone records show that he talks more than 12 hours a day.</p><p>At the same time, he coordinated with Microsoft CEO Nadella and sent a clear signal to acting CEO Mira Murati that his allies are \"striking with all their might\" and are \"unearthing negative information\" to damage the reputation of those who have opposed him, including her. (Altman said he did not remember such a conversation.)</p><p>Under intense external pressure, most employees signed an open letter calling for Altman's reinstatement, and Sutskever eventually signed the letter.</p><p><strong>The board was forced to compromise, with Helen Toner and Tasha McCauley losing their seats, while two new additions (former Harvard President Lawrence Summers and former<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Facebook</a>CTO Bret Taylor) were both selected after in-depth communication with Altman.</strong></p><p>\"Can you do this: put Bret, Larry Summers, Adam on the board, let me be CEO, and then Bret will be in charge of the investigation?\" Altman texted Nadella. Within five days, he was reinstated.</p><p><strong>Employees refer to this history as \"the Blip,\" borrowing from Marvel movies where characters disappear and reappear unscathed, and the world is turned upside down.</strong></p><p><h2><strong>The investigation report that never went down</strong></h2>Dismissed directors will be subject to an independent investigation as one of the conditions of separation. OpenAI hired WilmerHale, a law firm that once led the internal investigation of Enron and WorldCom, to conduct this \"review\". But the entire process appears to have been deliberately designed to limit transparency, according to six people close to the investigation.</p><p>Investigators initially did not engage with a number of key parties; Some employees interviewed were afraid to speak frankly because they were worried about lack of anonymity. \"They focused only on the narrow window of time during the boardroom, not his long history of integrity,\" said one interviewed.</p><p>In March 2024, OpenAI announced that Altman had been cleared, but did not release any investigative reports. The company's official website only posted a statement of about 800 words, acknowledging that there was a \"break in trust\".</p><p>According to people familiar with the matter, there was no written report because it was not written at all, and the findings of the investigation were only presented to Summers and Taylor in the form of an oral briefing. \"The review did not conclude that Sam was honest,\" a person close to the investigation said, \"but it determined that he could remain CEO.\"</p><p>Several former and current employees who were present were shocked by the secrecy. Altman rejoined the board shortly after his reinstatement.</p><p><h2>From non-profit commitment of \"human security first\" to for-profit recapitalization</h2>OpenAI's initial setting was to constrain business impulses with a non-profit structure.<strong>The board of directors has an obligation to \"prioritize human safety over the success and even survival of the company\". But internal records show that promise has been eroding.</strong></p><p>At a board meeting in December 2022, Altman assured members that several functions of GPT-4 had been approved by the Security Review Committee. Toner requested access to documents and found that neither of the most controversial features — allowing users to \"fine-tune\" the model and deploy it as a personal assistant — had been approved.</p><p>Additionally, she learned that Microsoft had released an early version of ChatGPT in India ahead of schedule, skipping the necessary security review, which Altman never mentioned in multiple lengthy debriefs with the board.</p><p>When security researcher Jan Leike was appointed to lead the \"Super Alignment Team\", the official statement promised that the team would receive \"20%\" of the company's computing power. However, according to four witnesses, the actual allocated computing power is between 1% and 2%, and \"most of the super-aligned computing power is actually used by the oldest clusters with the worst chips\".</p><p>Leike complained to Murati, who told him not to mention it again because \"the promise was never realistic\".</p><p>In 2024, Sutskever and Leike left one after another.<strong>\"Security culture and processes have given way to shiny products,\" Leike wrote on social media. OpenAI has since disbanded its Super Alignment team, and the word \"security\" has also disappeared from the company's description of \"most important business activities\" in its latest IRS return.</strong></p><p><h2><strong>Trillion Bet: Betting on the Future of AI to Authoritarian Regimes</strong></h2>Altman's most ambitious bet in business, and the worst worry outside the world —<strong>It is to extend the construction of AI infrastructure to the authoritarian regime in the Middle East.</strong></p><p>Back in 2016, he met Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and privately called him a \"friend\". In 2018, a week after the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, Altman announced that he had joined the Saudi-dominated Neom advisory board for the Future Cities project, before pulling out after fierce opposition from colleagues.</p><p>But as one policy adviser recalled, Altman then began asking if he could somehow bypass moral pressure to continue receiving money from Saudi Arabia, \"the question isn't 'is this a bad thing' but 'if we do this, what are the consequences? Is there an export control problem? Is there going to be sanctions? Can I go undetected?'\"</p><p>In parallel, he turned his sights to the UAE. Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed al-Nahyan, the UAE president's brother and director of national intelligence, controls about $1.5 trillion in sovereign wealth, and he also runs the state-controlled AI group G42.</p><p>Altman has developed a deep personal relationship with him, calling him \"Dear Best Friend\" on social media, and was invited aboard his $250 million superyacht \"Maryah\" in 2024.</p><p>In 2023, Altman began secretly pushing for a plan dubbed \"ChipCo\": funded by the Gulf states<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBAY\">tens of billions</a>USD to build large-scale chip foundries and data centers in the Middle East. \"As far as I understand it, the board had no knowledge of the whole thing when it happened,\" said one director.</p><p>The Biden administration in the United States is deeply wary of this, and Commerce Department officials explicitly told Altman: \"We do not plan to build advanced chips in the UAE.\"</p><p>However, with Trump's return to the White House, the picture changed drastically. In the first week of his inauguration, Altman stood in the Roosevelt Room of the White House to announce the \"Stargate\" plan-a joint venture aimed at building a huge AI infrastructure network in the United States, totaling $500 billion.</p><p>Subsequently, the Biden administration's export restrictions on AI technology were abolished, Altman accompanied Trump on a visit to the Saudi royal family, and Saudi Arabia immediately announced the establishment of a large state-sponsored AI company. Meanwhile, OpenAI announced the construction of a data center campus in Abu Dhabi that is seven times the size of Central Park and consumes as much electricity as the entire city of Miami.</p><p>\"We are building portals through which we are truly summoning outliers,\" said a former OpenAI executive.<strong>\"Sam has added another gateway in the Middle East. This is one of the most irresponsible things ever.\"</strong></p><p><h2>Regulation and Lobbying: From 'Welcoming Regulation' to a Tough Counterattack to the Safety Act</h2>When it comes to public image, Altman has long played the outlier among tech giants-he actively called on the government to regulate AI, and even proposed the creation of a new federal regulator in 2023 when he testified before the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee.</p><p>Louisiana Sen. John Kennedy looked rather moved, leaning on his hand and saying that perhaps Altman himself should be left to enforce the rules.</p><p>But at the same time, according to Time magazine,<strong>OpenAI successfully lobbied between 2022 and 2023 to weaken an EU piece of legislation aimed at tightening regulation of large AI companies.</strong>In California, when an AI security bill with terms highly similar to Altman's previous congressional testimony was introduced to the legislature, OpenAI publicly opposed it and made threats privately.</p><p>\"During the year, we have seen increasingly cunning and deceptive behavior from OpenAI,\" a legislative aide told the New Yorker. Conway, the investor, lobbied political leaders including Nancy Pelosi and Gavin Newsom, and the bill was ultimately vetoed by Newsom after it passed Parliament.</p><p>This year, a pro-AI super PAC called Leading the Future began funding candidates who oppose AI regulation.</p><p>OpenAI officially said it would not donate to such organizations, but one of the committee's major contributors is Greg Brockman, pledging $50 million. That same year, the Brockmans also donated $25 million to MAGA Inc., a pro-Trump company.</p><p><h2><strong>The Anatomy of Power: The Contradictory Unity of Obedience and Manipulation of Others</strong></h2>Of the dozens of parties The New Yorker interviewed, most shared some kind of shared psychological portrait of Altman. A director said:</p><p><strong>\"He is not bound by the truth. He has two traits that almost never appear in the same person at the same time: the first is a strong desire to please others and be liked in every interaction; and the second is an almost antisocial indifference to the consequences of deceiving others.\"</strong></p><p>The director is not the only one to spontaneously use the term \"antisocial\". Aaron Swartz, Altman's contemporary in the first class of Y Combinator cadets and regarded as the spiritual legacy of the tech circle, expressed his concerns about Altman to a number of friends in strong words several years before his death.</p><p>Several senior Microsoft executives also said in interviews that despite Nadella's long-standing support, the relationship between Microsoft and Altman has become tense. One of them said:</p><p>\"He misled, misrepresented, renegotiated, broke his promises, and I think there is a certain possibility — not big but there is — that he will end up being remembered as a Bernie Madoff or Sam Bankman-Fried-level liar.\"</p><p>Altman and his supporters explain these allegations as \"normal competitive business practices,\" while his critics are sci-fi \"doomsayers,\" or losers jealous of his success.</p><p>\"He's so caught up in his self-belief,\" said former board member Sue Yoon, \"that he does things that don't have any logic in the real world. But he doesn't live in the real world.\"</p><p><h2><strong>The Trillion Dollar Question: Should He Rule It All</strong></h2>OpenAI is reportedly preparing for an IPO with a potential valuation of nearly $1 trillion. Altman is riding one of the fastest-growing start-ups in human history, and its financing scale — the latest single round exceeded $120 billion, four times the size of the largest private placement in history.</p><p>In the foreseeable future, this company's decisions will affect the lives of hundreds of millions of people: when AI should stop and when it should continue; Who it should help and whom it refuses to serve; On the battlefield, whether it can make autonomous decisions without human supervision.</p><p>The problem is not only that Altman is a morally flawed man – as anyone who has run a large company knows, this is not surprising in itself.</p><p>The problem is: OpenAI's reason for existence is based on a premise from beginning to end-it is different from other companies,<strong>Its leaders must possess \"extraordinary integrity\" because they master a technology that can change civilization.</strong></p><p>Sutskever was initially convinced of this mission, and it was because of this belief that he refused<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Google</a>Tens of millions of dollars a year.</p><p>In an interview, the reporter asked Altman whether running an AI company requires \"higher standards of integrity\".</p><p>This was supposed to be an easy question to answer. He hesitated, then said, \"I think many industries can have a huge impact on society, for better or worse.\" Moments later, he added, \"Yes, it requires greater integrity, and I feel the weight of that responsibility every day.\"</p><p>However, in OpenAI's latest IRS return, the description of \"security\" as the company's core business has disappeared.<strong>The former recruiting slogan: \"You will save the world\" has been replaced by a new slogan within the company: \"Feel AGI.\"</strong></p><p>As Altman once told the media in an almost philosophical tone, he allowed his AI models to retain a certain degree of \"fictional\" ability, rather than pursuing 100% accuracy, because \"that magic is people's favorite thing\". This, perhaps, is the best footnote to understand him personally. ▪</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU2097829019.USD":"AZ EQUITY - BORLETTI GLOBAL LIFESTYLE \"AI\" (USD) ACC","LU2236285917.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU1232071149.USD":"AZ FUND 1 GLOBAL GROWTH SELECTOR \"AAZ\" (USDHDG) ACC","SG9999014567.USD":"UOB UNITED INCOME FOCUS TRUST FUND (USD) ACC","LU1153585028.USD":"BGF GLOBAL LONG-HORIZON EQUITY  \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU1674673691.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (USD) INC","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","LU2148611432.USD":"AZ ALLOCATION BALANCED BRAVE \"AAZ\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU1301847155.USD":"BGF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME FUND \"A4G\" (USD) INC","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc 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Altman的核心问题却只有一个：信任。一份横跨数百人访谈的调查提出质疑——这位AI时代的关键人物，是否值得托付未来？\n据《纽约客》4月6日发表的深度报道，对Altman的质疑并非来自外部，而是出自他最亲近的同事与董事。一份内部备忘录的第一条指控就是“撒谎”。在他们眼中，Altman习惯对不同对象讲述不同版本的现实，而这个人，正主导AI的走向。\n2023年被解雇又迅速复职的五天权力风暴，没有澄清问题，反而加深疑问：当资本、员工与技术力量集体站队，一位CEO是否已经超越了任何实质性约束？\n与此同时，OpenAI正深入军方、中东资本与敏感国家基础设施领域，而公司内部安全承诺却被削弱，“安全”甚至从核心业务中消失。理想主义外壳，正在被现实利益重塑。\n问题因此升级——这不只是个人诚信，而是结构性风险：当AGI的钥匙集中在少数人手中，而其可信度存疑，人类是否还拥有“刹车权”？\nAltman曾说，AI需要一点“虚构”的魔力。但真正的不确定在于：当现实与叙事边界开始模糊，我们面对的，究竟是一个改变世界的天才，还是一场无法验证的宏大故事。\n\"谎言\"——前同事的秘密备忘录\n2023年秋，OpenAI首席科学家Ilya Sutskever以消失消息的形式，向另外三位董事秘密传递了约70页的内部文件汇编。这批材料包括Slack聊天记录、人力资源文件及说明性文字，部分内容以手机拍照方式留存，显然是为了规避公司设备的监控。\n这批内部文件此前从未被完整披露。其中一份专门针对Altman的备忘录以一份清单开篇，标题为\"Sam持续展现出……\"，第一条即是：\"撒谎。\"\nSutskever积累这些担忧有其思想脉络。他曾是Altman的朋友，2019年甚至在OpenAI办公室主持了联合创始人Greg Brockman的婚礼。\n但随着他愈发相信公司正在逼近其终极目标——创造出能够与人类认知能力相媲美乃至超越人类的AI——他对Altman的疑虑与日俱增。他当时对另一位董事说：\n\n\"我不认为Sam是那个应该握住按钮的人。\"\n\nAI政策专家Helen Toner与企业家Tasha McCauley收到这批文件时，视之为印证：这两位女性已经各自形成了类似判断。\"他被赋予了人类的未来，\"一位知情董事对《纽约客》说，\"但他不值得信任。\"\n从Y Combinator到OpenAI：一个争议性崛起\nAltman并非横空出世。他的职业模式在远早于OpenAI之前便已形成。\n他在斯坦福大学读了一年半后，加入了著名程序员Paul Graham创办的创业孵化器Y Combinator（Y.C.）。\n他的第一家公司Loopt是一款基于手机位置的原始社交网络，折射出他的一个长期特质：将模糊的规则解读为对自己有利的规则。\nLoopt时期，已有员工对他的夸大其词感到困惑。一名前员工回忆，Altman曾大肆吹嘘自己是乒乓球冠军，\"密苏里州高中乒乓球冠军之类的\"，但实际上是公司里打得最差的人之一。\n一位曾被投资者安排担任Altman\"监护人\"的资深员工Mark Jacobstein后来将这种习惯描述为：\n\n\"'我认为我也许能做到'和'我已经做到了'之间的界限模糊，在最极端的形式下，就会走向Theranos那样的骗局（硅谷著名骗局）。\"\n\n2014年，Graham退休前将Altman擢升为Y.C.主席。然而到2018年，多位Y.C.合伙人已对Altman的行为深感不满，据多位当时在场人士的陈述，Graham夫妇曾与Altman进行了一次坦率谈话，实质上是迫使他离开。\nGraham曾私下对Y.C.同事表示，在Altman被要求离开之前，\"Sam一直在欺骗我们。\"\nAltman本人坚持声称自己从未被Y.C.解雇，且离开完全出于本人意愿。Graham的公开表述则相对模糊，他告诉《纽约客》：\"我们没有法律权力解雇任何人。我们所能做的只是施加道义压力。\"\nOpenAI的创立：用末日叙事募集理想主义\n2015年，Altman向Elon Musk发出了一封电子邮件，由此奠定了OpenAI的创立基础。\n此前，Altman一贯是科技乐观主义者，但他的AI话语迅速转向了末日论调。他在私下和公开场合反复警告：AI技术不应由追求利润的大公司主导。\"如果这件事终究要发生，\"他写信给Musk，\"最好由Google之外的人来做。\"\nOpenAI由此成立，被注册为非营利组织，董事会负有将人类安全置于公司利益之上的法定职责，甚至高于公司生存本身。\n创始人公开声称，AI可能是人类历史上最危险的发明，因此需要一种非同寻常的公司治理结构。这一叙事极具感召力：它成功地将原本分散在谷歌、学术界的顶尖研究人员招募到一家资金匮乏的新组织。\n据Sutskever回忆，当时的招募口号是：\"你将拯救世界。\"\n然而，内部矛盾从一开始便暗流涌动。根据Dario Amodei（此后创立Anthropic）积累的超过200页私人笔记——这批文件从未公开披露——Altman在早期便流露出不同信号。\n在2019年与微软谈判10亿美元投资期间，Amodei将维护公司章程中\"合并与协助\"条款（如果另一家公司率先安全开发出AGI，OpenAI将协助而非竞争）列为首要谈判底线，并得到Altman的口头承诺。\n但交易临近签署时，Amodei发现合同中已悄然加入一项赋予微软阻止OpenAI任何合并行为的条款。他当场质问Altman，后者起初否认该条款存在，Amodei不得不逐字朗读合同文本，并让另一名同事当面确认。\nAmodei后来在笔记中写道：\"他的话几乎肯定是谎言\"。\n\"政变\"与复辟：五天内的权力戏剧\n2023年11月的那个周末，当董事会通过视频电话宣读声明、告知Altman他已不再是OpenAI员工时，他正身处拉斯维加斯观看F1赛车。\n消息震动了整个科技界。微软在解雇发生前数分钟才被告知——这家已向OpenAI投入逾130亿美元的战略伙伴措手不及。\"我非常震惊，\"微软CEO Satya Nadella后来表示。\nLinkedIn联合创始人、OpenAI投资人Reid Hoffman随即展开电话调查，试图弄清Altman究竟犯了什么错。\"我根本不知道他妈发生了什么，\"Hoffman告诉《纽约客》，\"我们在找挪用公款的证据，或者性骚扰，但什么都没找到。\"\nAltman返回旧金山自己的2700万美元豪宅，迅速组建起一个非正式\"流亡政府\"，成员包括Airbnb联合创始人Brian Chesky、投资人Ron Conway及危机公关人士Chris Lehane。他的电话记录显示，他每天通话时间超过12小时。\n与此同时，他协同微软CEO Nadella协调口径，并向代理CEO Mira Murati传递了一个明确信号：他的盟友们\"正在全力出击\"，并正在\"发掘负面信息\"以损害包括她在内的那些曾反对他的人的名誉。（Altman表示不记得有过这样的对话。）\n在强大的外部压力下，多数员工联署了要求Altman复职的公开信，Sutskever最终也在信上签字。\n董事会被迫妥协，Helen Toner和Tasha McCauley失去了席位，而新加入的两位董事（前哈佛大学校长Lawrence Summers和前Facebook首席技术官Bret Taylor）均是在与Altman深度沟通后才被选定的。\n\"你能不能这样做：把Bret、Larry Summers、Adam作为董事会，让我担任CEO，然后由Bret负责调查？\"Altman如此发短信给Nadella。不到五天，他便复职了。\n员工们将这段历史称为\"the Blip\"（短暂消失），借用漫威电影中的情节：人物消失后重现，本人毫发无损，而世界已然天翻地覆。\n那份从未落纸的调查报告\n被解雇的董事们将接受独立调查作为离职条件之一。OpenAI聘请了曾主导安然、世通内部调查的律所WilmerHale负责这项\"审查\"。但据六名接近调查的知情人士称，整个过程似乎被刻意设计为限制透明度。\n调查人员起初未与多位关键当事人接触；部分受访员工因担忧匿名性不足而不敢坦诚发言。\"他们只关注董事会风波期间的狭窄时间窗口，而非他长期以来的诚信历史，\"一名受访员工说。\n2024年3月，OpenAI宣布Altman获得清白，但没有发布任何调查报告。公司官网仅挂出约800字的声明，承认存在\"信任破裂\"。\n据知情人士透露，之所以没有书面报告，是因为根本没有写，调查结论仅以口头简报的形式向Summers和Taylor呈报。\"审查得出的结论并不是Sam诚实，\"一名接近调查的人士说，\"但它确定他可以继续担任CEO。\"\n数位曾在场的前员工和现任员工对这种不公开的做法感到震惊。Altman复职后不久便重新加入了董事会。\n从“人类安全优先”的非营利承诺到营利化再资本化\nOpenAI最初的设定，是用非营利结构约束商业冲动，董事会对“人类安全优先于公司成功甚至生存”负有义务。但内部记录显示，这一承诺一直在被侵蚀。\n2022年12月的一次董事会会议上，Altman向成员们保证，GPT-4的若干功能已通过安全审查委员会批准。Toner要求查阅文件后发现，最具争议的功能——允许用户\"微调\"模型和将其部署为个人助理——均未获批准。\n此外，她还得知微软在印度提前发布了ChatGPT的早期版本，跳过了必要的安全审查，而Altman在与董事会的多次长时间汇报中从未提及此事。\n当安全研究员Jan Leike被任命领导\"超级对齐团队\"时，官方声明承诺该团队将获得公司算力的\"20%\"。但据四名亲历者陈述，实际分配的算力在1%至2%之间，且\"大部分超级对齐算力实际上用的是最老旧、芯片最差的集群\"。\nLeike向Murati投诉，后者告诉他不要再提这件事，因为\"这个承诺从来就不现实\"。\n2024年，Sutskever和Leike相继离职。Leike在社交媒体上写道：\"安全文化和流程已经让位于闪亮的产品。\"OpenAI此后陆续解散了超级对齐团队，在最新的美国国税局申报表中，\"安全\"一词也从公司\"最重要业务活动\"的描述中消失。\n万亿赌局：向专制政权押注AI未来\nAltman在商业上最雄心勃勃的赌注，也是外界最感忧虑的——是将AI基础设施建设向中东专制政权延伸。\n早在2016年，他便结识了沙特王储Mohammed bin Salman，并私下称其为\"朋友\"。2018年，记者Jamal Khashoggi被杀一周后，Altman宣布加入沙特主导的未来城市项目Neom顾问委员会，随后在同事强烈反对下才退出。\n但据一名政策顾问回忆，Altman随即开始询问是否能以某种方式绕开道义压力继续从沙特获得资金，\"问题不是'这是否是坏事'，而是'如果我们这么做，会有什么后果？有出口管制问题吗？会有制裁吗？我能不能不被发现？'\"\n与此并行，他将目光转向阿联酋。阿联酋总统之弟、国家情报总监Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed al-Nahyan掌控着约1.5万亿美元的主权财富，他同时运营着国家控股AI集团G42。\nAltman与其建立了深度私人关系，在社交媒体上称之为\"亲爱的挚友\"，并曾于2024年受邀登上其价值2.5亿美元的超级游艇\"Maryah\"号。\n2023年，Altman开始秘密推动一项被称为\"ChipCo\"的计划：由海湾国家出资数百亿美元，在中东建设大规模芯片代工厂和数据中心。\"据我的理解，整件事发生时董事会毫不知情，\"一位知情董事说。\n美国拜登政府对此深感警惕，商务部官员明确告知Altman：\"我们不打算在阿联酋建造先进芯片。\"\n然而，随着特朗普重返白宫，局面彻底改变。就职第一周，Altman便站在白宫罗斯福厅宣布\"星际之门\"（Stargate）计划——一项旨在在美国境内构建庞大AI基础设施网络、总额达5000亿美元的合资企业。\n随后，拜登政府的AI技术出口限制被废除，Altman陪同特朗普出访沙特王室，而沙特随即宣布成立一家国家支持的大型AI公司。与此同时，OpenAI宣布在阿布扎比建设一个面积相当于中央公园七倍、耗电量堪比迈阿密整座城市的数据中心园区。\n\"我们正在建造门户，通过这些门户我们正在真正地召唤异类，\"一名前OpenAI高管说，\"Sam在中东又增加了一个门户。这是有史以来最不负责任的事情之一。\"\n监管与游说：从“欢迎监管”到对安全法案的强硬反击\n在公众形象的塑造上，Altman曾长期扮演科技巨头中的异类——他主动呼吁政府监管AI，2023年在美国参议院司法委员会作证时甚至提议设立新的联邦监管机构。\n路易斯安那州参议员John Kennedy看起来颇受感动，靠在手上说，也许应该让Altman本人来执行规则。\n但与此同时，据《时代》杂志报道，OpenAI在2022至2023年间成功游说削弱了欧盟一项旨在加强对大型AI公司监管的立法。在加州，当一项与Altman此前国会证词条款高度相近的AI安全法案提交立法机构后，OpenAI公开表示反对，并在私下发出威胁。\n\"在这一年里，我们看到了来自OpenAI的手段越来越狡猾和具有欺骗性的行为，\"一名立法助手对《纽约客》说。投资人Conway游说了包括Nancy Pelosi和Gavin Newsom在内的政界领袖，该法案最终在通过议会后被Newsom否决。\n今年，一个名为\"引领未来\"（Leading the Future）的亲AI超级政治行动委员会开始资助反对AI监管候选人。\nOpenAI官方表示不会向此类组织捐款，但该委员会的主要捐款人之一是Greg Brockman，承诺捐出5000万美元。同年，Brockman夫妇还向支持特朗普的\"MAGA Inc.\"捐赠了2500万美元。\n权力的解剖：顺从他人与操控他人的矛盾统一体\n在《纽约客》采访的数十名当事人中，大多数人分享了对Altman某种共同的心理画像。一名董事说：\n\n\"他不受真相约束。他有两种几乎从不同时出现在同一个人身上的特质：第一是强烈渴望取悦他人、在每一次互动中被人喜欢；第二是几乎带有反社会性质的、对欺骗他人所带来后果的漠然。\"\n\n这位董事不是唯一一个自发使用\"反社会\"一词的人。Altman在Y Combinator第一届学员中的同期者、被视为技术圈精神遗产的Aaron Swartz，在去世前数年曾向多位友人表达了对Altman的担忧，措辞强烈。\n多名微软高级管理人员也在采访中表示，尽管Nadella长期力挺，微软与Altman的关系已变得紧张。其中一人说：\n\n\"他误导、歪曲、重新谈判、食言，我认为他有一定的可能——虽然不大但确实存在——最终被人记住为Bernie Madoff或Sam Bankman-Fried级别的骗子。\"\n\n对于这些指控，Altman及其支持者的解释是，他的行为不过是\"正常的竞争性商业实践\"，而他的批评者则是科幻式\"末日论者\"，或是嫉妒他成功的失败者。\n\"他太沉浸于自我信念，\"前董事成员Sue Yoon说，\"所以他做了一些在现实世界中毫无逻辑的事。但他不活在现实世界里。\"\n一万亿美元的问题：他是否应该主宰这一切\nOpenAI据报道正准备IPO，潜在估值接近1万亿美元。Altman驾驭着人类有史以来增长最快的初创企业之一，其融资规模——最近一轮单轮即超过1200亿美元，为历史最大私募融资规模的四倍。\n在可预见的未来，这家公司的决策将影响数以亿计的人的生活：AI何时应当停止，何时应当继续；它应当帮助谁，拒绝服务谁；在战场上，它是否可以在没有人类监督的情况下自主决策。\n问题不仅在于Altman是一个道德上有瑕疵的人——任何一个运营过大公司的人都知道，这本身不足为奇。\n问题在于：OpenAI的存在理由，自始至终建立在一个前提之上——它与其他公司不同，它的领导者必须具备\"非同寻常的诚信\"，因为他们掌握的是一项可以改变文明的技术。\nSutskever最初对这一使命深信不疑，正是因为这个信念，他拒绝了谷歌的千万美元年薪。\n在一次采访中，记者问Altman，运营一家AI公司是否要求\"更高的诚信标准\"。\n这本应是一个容易回答的问题。他迟疑了，然后说，\"我认为很多行业都可能对社会产生巨大影响，无论好坏。\"片刻后，他补充道：\"是的，这需要更高的诚信，我每天都感受到这份责任的重量。\"\n然而，OpenAI最新的IRS申报表中，\"安全\"作为公司核心业务的描述已经消失。曾经的招募口号：\"你将拯救世界\"，已被公司内部的新口号所取代：\"感受AGI。\"\n正如Altman曾以近乎哲学的口吻向媒体说的那样，他允许旗下AI模型保留一定程度的\"虚构\"能力，而非追求百分之百的准确性，因为\"那种魔力，是人们最喜欢的东西\"。这也许，是理解他本人的最好注脚。▪","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFU":0.6,"MSFY":0.6,"MSFD":0.6,"MSFW":0.6,"MSFX":0.6,"MSFL":0.6,"AIYY":0.6,"MSFO":0.6,"MSFT":1.82}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":890,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":551087593541840,"gmtCreate":1775564165799,"gmtModify":1775566974677,"author":{"id":"4212352499387392","authorId":"4212352499387392","name":"Kierayu876","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/40147ad4b4fea60e7c16295a9be0a1f8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4212352499387392","idStr":"4212352499387392"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Mark&nbsp;","listText":"Mark&nbsp;","text":"Mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/551087593541840","repostId":"2625302879","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2625302879","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1775563968,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2625302879?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-04-07 20:12","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"IEA warns: The energy shock in the Gulf exceeds the combined intensity of 1973, 1979 and 2022, and the global economy is entering \"Black April\"!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2625302879","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"国际能源署（IEA）执行主任Fatih Birol指出，海湾地区已有逾75处能源设施遭到袭击，其中三分之一受到严重破坏，修复要很长时间。若霍尔木兹海峡整个四月持续关闭，全球损原油与成品油损失将达三月份两倍。","content":"<p><html><body>Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), issued his sternest warning yet: The intensity of the Gulf energy shock is greater than the combined crises of 1973, 1979 and 2022, and the global economy is on the verge of a multidimensional supply collapse.</p><p>In an interview with French newspaper Le Figaro on Tuesday, Birol revealed that more than 75 energy facilities in the Gulf have been attacked, with about a third of them severely damaged.</p><p>He said that if Hormuz<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002320\">Straits</a>With April closed, the world will lose twice as much crude and refined oil as it did in March-\"We are entering a 'black April'\".</p><p>The unprecedented destructive power of this crisis lies in its spread far beyond the pure oil field, while impacting natural gas, grain, fertilizer, petrochemicals, helium and the global trading system. Birol has made it clear that the root of the crisis lies not in energy itself but in geopolitics, which also makes it deeply pessimistic about the outlook.</p><p><h2><strong>75 energy facilities damaged, long road to repair</strong></h2>The IEA is currently implementing real-time monitoring of oil fields, refineries and energy terminals in the Gulf region.</p><p>75 facilities have been attacked and damaged, more than a third of which are severely damaged, and the repair works will cost up to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBAY\">tens of billions</a>US dollars, and will cause a long-term disruption to some energy flows, further tightening global supply and exacerbating transportation pressure on the Strait of Hormuz, a key choke point.</p><p>The rate of recovery differs significantly among the damaged countries.</p><p>Birol pointed out that Saudi Arabia is expected to recover relatively quickly with its strong engineering capabilities and abundant financial resources; Iraq, on the other hand, has lost about two-thirds of its oil revenue and is approaching a critical point of economic paralysis, with some 15 million people dependent on oil and gas revenues for their livelihoods. He said:</p><p>\"The Middle East has previously been a reliable global energy hub, and it will take a long time to return to this position.\"</p><p><h2><strong>Production halved, natural gas exports shut down across the board</strong></h2>In terms of production losses, Birol's description is striking. He said that the current oil production of the countries concerned is only slightly more than half of the pre-war level; For natural gas, exports have stopped altogether.</p><p>In the time dimension, the situation is accelerating to deterioration. \"March has been tough, but April will be worse,\" Birol said. \"If the channel remains closed throughout April, we will lose twice as much crude and refined oil as we did in March.\"</p><p>He uses a metaphor for seasons: \"April in the northern hemisphere usually means<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600381\">springtime</a>But for now, it may feel like the beginning of winter. \"</p><p><h2><strong>Developing countries bear the brunt, Asian and African economies face debt crisis</strong></h2>Among the hardest hit groups, Birol prioritized developing countries.</p><p>He said that the combination of high oil and gas prices and high food prices to accelerate inflation will deal a heavy blow to economic growth in these countries. \"I am worried that the external debt of many developing countries will rise sharply,\" he said.</p><p>In terms of countries with higher specific exposure risk, Birol named Asia's oil import-dependent economies, including South Korea and Japan, as well as Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Pakistan and Bangladesh, while noting that African countries will also be severely affected.</p><p>The common vulnerability of these countries is that they have limited fiscal room to maneuver and are difficult to withstand sustained external energy price shocks.</p><p><h2><strong>Nature of the crisis: geopolitically driven, the path to repair is full of uncertainty</strong></h2>Birol repeatedly emphasized in the interview that there is an essential difference between this crisis and previous energy supply shocks in history-it does not stem from the supply and demand imbalance of the energy market itself, but the result of geopolitical conflicts directly destroying physical infrastructure.</p><p>This attribute determines that its duration and repair path are highly dependent on the political situation, and the market pricing mechanism is difficult to play an effective role.</p><p>The pattern of multi-category simultaneous impact-oil and gas, grain, fertilizer, petrochemical, helium and trade shipping are simultaneously damaged-also makes the global supply chain face the most complicated stress test in history.</p><p>Birol has continued to convey pessimistic expectations in several public interviews for weeks, and this language is the most cautionary of them.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>IEA warns: The energy shock in the Gulf exceeds the combined intensity of 1973, 1979 and 2022, and the global economy is entering \"Black April\"!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIEA warns: The energy shock in the Gulf exceeds the combined intensity of 1973, 1979 and 2022, and the global economy is entering \"Black April\"!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2026-04-07 20:12</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), issued his sternest warning yet: The intensity of the Gulf energy shock is greater than the combined crises of 1973, 1979 and 2022, and the global economy is on the verge of a multidimensional supply collapse.</p><p>In an interview with French newspaper Le Figaro on Tuesday, Birol revealed that more than 75 energy facilities in the Gulf have been attacked, with about a third of them severely damaged.</p><p>He said that if Hormuz<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002320\">Straits</a>With April closed, the world will lose twice as much crude and refined oil as it did in March-\"We are entering a 'black April'\".</p><p>The unprecedented destructive power of this crisis lies in its spread far beyond the pure oil field, while impacting natural gas, grain, fertilizer, petrochemicals, helium and the global trading system. Birol has made it clear that the root of the crisis lies not in energy itself but in geopolitics, which also makes it deeply pessimistic about the outlook.</p><p><h2><strong>75 energy facilities damaged, long road to repair</strong></h2>The IEA is currently implementing real-time monitoring of oil fields, refineries and energy terminals in the Gulf region.</p><p>75 facilities have been attacked and damaged, more than a third of which are severely damaged, and the repair works will cost up to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBAY\">tens of billions</a>US dollars, and will cause a long-term disruption to some energy flows, further tightening global supply and exacerbating transportation pressure on the Strait of Hormuz, a key choke point.</p><p>The rate of recovery differs significantly among the damaged countries.</p><p>Birol pointed out that Saudi Arabia is expected to recover relatively quickly with its strong engineering capabilities and abundant financial resources; Iraq, on the other hand, has lost about two-thirds of its oil revenue and is approaching a critical point of economic paralysis, with some 15 million people dependent on oil and gas revenues for their livelihoods. He said:</p><p>\"The Middle East has previously been a reliable global energy hub, and it will take a long time to return to this position.\"</p><p><h2><strong>Production halved, natural gas exports shut down across the board</strong></h2>In terms of production losses, Birol's description is striking. He said that the current oil production of the countries concerned is only slightly more than half of the pre-war level; For natural gas, exports have stopped altogether.</p><p>In the time dimension, the situation is accelerating to deterioration. \"March has been tough, but April will be worse,\" Birol said. \"If the channel remains closed throughout April, we will lose twice as much crude and refined oil as we did in March.\"</p><p>He uses a metaphor for seasons: \"April in the northern hemisphere usually means<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600381\">springtime</a>But for now, it may feel like the beginning of winter. \"</p><p><h2><strong>Developing countries bear the brunt, Asian and African economies face debt crisis</strong></h2>Among the hardest hit groups, Birol prioritized developing countries.</p><p>He said that the combination of high oil and gas prices and high food prices to accelerate inflation will deal a heavy blow to economic growth in these countries. \"I am worried that the external debt of many developing countries will rise sharply,\" he said.</p><p>In terms of countries with higher specific exposure risk, Birol named Asia's oil import-dependent economies, including South Korea and Japan, as well as Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Pakistan and Bangladesh, while noting that African countries will also be severely affected.</p><p>The common vulnerability of these countries is that they have limited fiscal room to maneuver and are difficult to withstand sustained external energy price shocks.</p><p><h2><strong>Nature of the crisis: geopolitically driven, the path to repair is full of uncertainty</strong></h2>Birol repeatedly emphasized in the interview that there is an essential difference between this crisis and previous energy supply shocks in history-it does not stem from the supply and demand imbalance of the energy market itself, but the result of geopolitical conflicts directly destroying physical infrastructure.</p><p>This attribute determines that its duration and repair path are highly dependent on the political situation, and the market pricing mechanism is difficult to play an effective role.</p><p>The pattern of multi-category simultaneous impact-oil and gas, grain, fertilizer, petrochemical, helium and trade shipping are simultaneously damaged-also makes the global supply chain face the most complicated stress test in history.</p><p>Birol has continued to convey pessimistic expectations in several public interviews for weeks, and this language is the most cautionary of them.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"159945":"能源","BK4129":"建筑与工程","REET":"iShares Trust iShares Global REIT ETF","IEA":"Infrastructure and Energy Alternatives, Inc."},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3769406","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2625302879","content_text":"国际能源署（IEA）执行主任Fatih Birol发出迄今最严厉警告：此次海湾能源冲击的烈度超过1973年、1979年与2022年危机的总和，全球经济正濒临一场多维度的供应崩溃。\nBirol周二接受法国《费加罗报》采访时披露，海湾地区已有逾75处能源设施遭到袭击，其中约三分之一受到严重破坏。\n他表示，若霍尔木兹海峡整个四月持续关闭，全球损失的原油与成品油数量将达三月份的两倍——\"我们正在进入一个'黑色四月'\"。\n此次危机的破坏力之所以前所未有，在于其波及范围已远超单纯的石油领域，同时冲击天然气、粮食、化肥、石化产品、氦气及全球贸易体系。Birol明确表示，这场危机的根源不在于能源本身，而在于地缘政治，这也令其对前景深感悲观。\n75处能源设施受损，修复之路漫长\nIEA目前正对海湾地区的油田、炼油厂与能源终端实施实时监控。\n75处设施已遭袭击并受损，逾三分之一损毁严重，修缮工程耗资将达数百亿美元，且将造成部分能源流的长期中断，进一步收紧全球供应，并加剧霍尔木兹海峡这一关键咽喉要道的运输压力。\n在各受损国中，恢复速度分化显著。\nBirol指出，沙特阿拉伯凭借强大的工程能力与充裕的财政资源，有望相对较快恢复；而伊拉克的处境则远为严峻，约1500万人依赖油气收入为生，该国已损失约三分之二的石油收入，正逼近经济瘫痪的临界点。他说：\n\n\"中东此前一直是全球可靠的能源枢纽，要恢复到这一地位，将需要很长时间。\"\n\n产量腰斩，天然气出口全面停摆\n在产量损失方面，Birol的描述触目惊心。他表示，相关国家目前的石油产量仅略超战前水平的一半；天然气方面，出口已完全停止。\n在时间维度上，形势正加速恶化。\"三月份已经很艰难，但四月将更糟，\"Birol说，\"如果海峡整个四月持续关闭，我们损失的原油和成品油将是三月份的两倍。\"\n他以季节作喻：\"北半球的四月通常意味着春天的到来，但现在，它可能感觉像是冬天的开始。\"\n发展中国家首当其冲，亚非经济体面临债务危机\n在受冲击最严重的群体中，Birol将发展中国家列为重点。\n他表示，高油价、高气价与高粮食价格叠加加速通胀，将对这些国家的经济增长造成沉重打击。\"我担心许多发展中国家的外债将大幅攀升，\"他说。\n就具体暴露风险较高的国家而言，Birol点名亚洲的石油进口依赖型经济体，包括韩国、日本，以及印度尼西亚、菲律宾、越南、巴基斯坦和孟加拉国，同时指出非洲国家也将受到严重波及。\n上述国家共同的脆弱性在于财政腾挪空间有限，难以抵御持续的外部能源价格冲击。\n危机性质：地缘政治驱动，修复路径充满不确定性\nBirol在采访中反复强调，此次危机与历史上历次能源供应冲击存在本质差异——它并非源于能源市场自身的供需失衡，而是地缘政治冲突直接摧毁物理基础设施的结果。\n这一属性决定了其持续时间和修复路径高度依赖政治局势走向，市场定价机制难以有效发挥作用。\n此次多品类同步受冲击的格局——油气、粮食、化肥、石化、氦气与贸易航运同步受损——亦令全球供应链面临有史以来最复杂的压力测试。\nBirol数周来已在多场公开采访中持续传递悲观预期，此次措辞为其中最为警示性的一次。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159945":1.5,"IEA":1.5,"REET":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":779,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":550640785602288,"gmtCreate":1775454891174,"gmtModify":1775455977548,"author":{"id":"4113652880316960","authorId":"4113652880316960","name":"ricky的帐户","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9c7f4c01fbb82926962006574a04f713","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4113652880316960","idStr":"4113652880316960"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"mark","listText":"mark","text":"mark","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/550640785602288","repostId":"2625819624","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2625819624","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1775450467,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2625819624?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-04-06 12:41","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"The most exciting \"research\"? \"Online celebrity AI Research Institute\": Public data missed 50% of Hormuz's real traffic","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2625819624","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"霍尔木兹海峡到底开没开？Citrini分析师冒死亲赴一线“数船”揭开真相：公开AIS系统竟漏报了近50%的真实流量！海峡并非简单的“非开即关”，而是处于随时变化的“动态执法”中。全球能源与航运供应链将面临更频繁、难测的剧烈波动，摒弃单一数据源，掌握多源验证的信息优势已成交易制胜关键。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The most \"exploded\" material in today's financial circle comes from an article about Hormuz<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002320\">Straits</a>Front-line field reports of.</p><p>Citrini Research, a Research institution that used an AI \"thought experiment\" report \"Global Intelligence Crisis in 2028\" to set off a storm in the market and even \"collapsed\" the stock prices of a number of related companies, this time threw out a heavy geo-material. It has caused quite a shock among traders, shipping insurance and energy research circles for a simple reason: When the market debated whether the Strait was \"open or not, and whether it would suddenly close\", the report directly brought the discussion back to the scene.</p><p>The report featured the enigmatic \"Analyst#3\" of Citrini Research. Unlike the usual second-hand compilation, he chose to \"count ships\" near the strait in person, look at the channel, chat with locals and crew members, and record details of inspections, detentions and risks encountered along the way. Many readers' first reaction after reading it is: This is more like a battlefield reconnaissance log, not like a macro comment made in the office-it is also the impact that Citrini always \"brings the market back to reality with details\".</p><p>\"Analyst 3\" observed at the scene that the number of ships actually passing through the Strait of Hormuz was significantly higher than the level presented by the public AIS data, and that the market systematically underestimated the real flow. The key figure given in the report is glaring – \"AIS systems underreport approximately 50% of actual passing vessels per day in the current environment\".</p><p>More importantly, he describes the Straits status quo as a state of \"dynamic enforcement\": the Straits are not well-suited to be generalized with the \"open/closed\" binary label, because the field rules change, and so do the enforcers. The report wrote that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) dominated the new rule of \"who can pass\" on the spot, and patrol boats and Shahed drones were frequently active, which brought fluctuation risks to the global oil and gas supply chain may be amplified at any time.</p><p><div><h2>How to fill in the information blank: \"counting ships\" on the spot has become the most direct way</h2></div>The Strait of Hormuz is like a \"master valve\" for global energy.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">U.S. Energy</a>The Information Agency (EIA) has long estimated that the Strait of Hormuz carries a considerable proportion of the world's maritime crude oil and refined oil flow (often quoted as about 20%), and any news of \"misjudgment\" will quickly be reflected in oil prices, freight rates and insurance rates.</p><p>The problem is that the tools commonly used in the market — public AIS, partial satellite imagery, scattered anonymous intelligence — each have their own blind spots. Citrini gave a very straightforward judgment in the report: \"When there is a huge information gap in the market about whether the strait is 'open or closed', the only way to go to the site and count ships is the most direct and effective way.\" This explains why the report is concerned: it provides scarce first-hand observations at the expense of extremely high personal risk.</p><p><div><h2>'High-stakes forensics' from Dubai to Musandem</h2></div>Citrini's expedition route was written in detail: Dubai → Fujairah oil port → Musandem province (Khasab) in Oman → attempt to enter the core waters of the strait by speedboat. The value of this path is that it links the whole chain of \"port-supply-border enforcement-sea passage\" to observe, rather than just staring at the stretch of water in the middle of the strait.</p><p>Nor was he carrying gear like a normal business trip: a Leica Zoom camera, recording glasses, an EPIRB distress beacon, about $15,000 in cash, and he mentioned bringing a spare cell phone (including a<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XIACY\">Millet</a>cell phones) as well as supplies such as Zyn. The report has an obvious on-the-spot tone, for example, he described the trip as \"like writing a research report into a waterproof bag\", ready to deal with seizures and emergencies.</p><p><div><h2>Key Discovery 1: AIS is \"half less\", and dark AIS and \"hidden corridor\" are filling in</h2></div>One of Citrini's biggest conclusions is a direct blow to AIS reliability. He wrote: \"The AIS system misreports about 50 percent of actual passing ships every day in the current environment, and the public data that the market relies on is no longer reliable.\" If AIS is analogized to navigational positioning on highways, it does show most vehicles, but when some vehicles are \"off-location\" or take small roads that are not marked by public maps, the screen looks empty.</p><p>At the scene, he observed more ships passing, especially the permitted channels that some ships chose to approach the Iranian coast, which he called \"hidden corridors\". Some of these vessels employ dark AIS (off signal) or do not rely entirely on public tracking systems. For trading and risk control, this means a practical problem: using public AIS to estimate \"whether the traffic has dropped sharply\" is likely to underestimate the real traffic, thus amplifying the panic or mismatch risk premium.</p><p>To prove this, BIMCO, a shipping industry organization, and some insurance and maritime notification channels (such as UKMTO's navigation safety notification system) have long reminded that in high-risk waters, whether AIS is turned on or not often obeys safety and avoidance strategies, and there are naturally deviations in public data. Citrini's contribution is that he quantifies this \"bias\" into a more impactful approximate proportion.</p><p><div><h2>Key finding two: IRGC-led 'dynamic enforcement', making the strait more like 'temporary traffic control'</h2></div>At the security and political level, the report emphasizes that the control logic of the Straits is changing. He wrote that the IRGC was on-site to develop and enforce new rules of passage, patrol boats were active with Shahed drones, and the strait was in a state of \"dynamic law enforcement\". To use a better understood metaphor, this is a bit like a key arterial road: the road is not blocked, but the traffic police set up temporary lanes, random inspections and release lists at any time, and the traffic experience and risk will fluctuate at the hourly level.</p><p>On sensitive issues, the report also leaves room for market understanding: some regional security professionals will think that tightening controls has its border security and deterrence needs; Shipping companies and traders are more concerned about the unpredictability caused by the temporary nature of rules, because what the supply chain fears most is not \"expensive\", but \"unsure when to get stuck\".</p><p><div><h2>Inspection, detention and \"signing a promise\": Why is this material expensive</h2></div>The most vivid part of the report happened at the border checkpoint in Oman. Citrini described being asked to sign a commitment to \"no photography, no journalism, no intelligence gathering\". He then took a GPS-free speedboat driven by a stranger. The report said that the speedboat was \"only 18 miles off the Iranian coast\" and even showed details of \"swimming and smoking cigars in the strait\" to illustrate how close he was to the real shipping channel and law enforcement.</p><p>The more dramatic part: He was intercepted, detained by the Oman Coast Guard, his phone confiscated, and notes and photos may have fallen into official hands. For readers, the significance of this kind of plot is not to hunt for curiosity, but to explain the fact that when data sources become more and more difficult and public information becomes more and more fragmented, the cost of first-hand observation is rising sharply, which will directly affect the information quality and pricing efficiency of the market.</p><p><div><h2>How should the market judge \"strait risk\" in the future?</h2></div>A common question is, what else can the market trust when public AIS is unreliable?</p><p>The more realistic answer: change \"single data source\" to \"multi-source puzzle\". Trading and risk control teams can cross-validate public AIS, commercial satellites (especially SAR, which is more night-and cloud-friendly), port handling and queuing data, insurance quotation changes, and official maritime notifications. Think of it as looking at the same intersection with multiple cameras. When one is blocked, the whole traffic flow can still be restored.</p><p>Another question is, how will this affect oil prices and shipping?</p><p>EIA and the International Energy Agency (IEA) and other institutions have repeatedly emphasized the importance of Hormuz. The risk premium often comes from the product of \"disruption probability × disruption impact\". Citrini's report boosts the market's understanding of the \"impact\" part: the strait is not showing a simple shutdown, the mode of passage is changing, the rules are more temporary, and the risks are more like \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600668\">spike</a>Pulse \". Such risks are usually more sensitive to the transmission of option volatility, freight and insurance surcharges than to spot transactions.</p><p><div><h2>Volatility comes from 'unpredictable temporary rules'</h2></div>Citrini is cautious about the future: IRGC-led field rules will make the Straits more prone to sudden friction, and fluctuations in the global oil supply chain may take on the characteristics of \"short, violent and difficult to verify\" more frequently. For markets, such environments reward participants who respond quickly and have more three-dimensional information sources.</p><p>His advice is also clear: Don't take the Straits as a switch, don't take the AIS as the truth. The reason why the phrase \"go to the site and count ships\" in the report is shocking is that it reminds the market that when the information gap is large enough, risk control and research need to be closer to the ground reality, even if the cost is high and the risk is high.</p><p>In short, the core point of the report is,<strong>The real traffic of the Strait of Hormuz may be significantly higher than that shown by public AIS. The strait order is characterized by dynamic law enforcement. Any information of \"misjudging opening and closing\" may amplify the fluctuations of global energy and shipping chains.</strong></p><p>On the one hand, the market may need to recalibrate the \"flow-risk premium\" mapping; On the other hand, data methodologies can be forced to escalate from relying on a single publicly available metric to more expensive but more robust multi-source validation. For the trading, shipping and industrial side, such changes will push the \"information advantage\" to a more central position.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The most exciting \"research\"? \"Online celebrity AI Research Institute\": Public data missed 50% of Hormuz's real traffic</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe most exciting \"research\"? \"Online celebrity AI Research Institute\": Public data missed 50% of Hormuz's real traffic\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2026-04-06 12:41</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The most \"exploded\" material in today's financial circle comes from an article about Hormuz<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002320\">Straits</a>Front-line field reports of.</p><p>Citrini Research, a Research institution that used an AI \"thought experiment\" report \"Global Intelligence Crisis in 2028\" to set off a storm in the market and even \"collapsed\" the stock prices of a number of related companies, this time threw out a heavy geo-material. It has caused quite a shock among traders, shipping insurance and energy research circles for a simple reason: When the market debated whether the Strait was \"open or not, and whether it would suddenly close\", the report directly brought the discussion back to the scene.</p><p>The report featured the enigmatic \"Analyst#3\" of Citrini Research. Unlike the usual second-hand compilation, he chose to \"count ships\" near the strait in person, look at the channel, chat with locals and crew members, and record details of inspections, detentions and risks encountered along the way. Many readers' first reaction after reading it is: This is more like a battlefield reconnaissance log, not like a macro comment made in the office-it is also the impact that Citrini always \"brings the market back to reality with details\".</p><p>\"Analyst 3\" observed at the scene that the number of ships actually passing through the Strait of Hormuz was significantly higher than the level presented by the public AIS data, and that the market systematically underestimated the real flow. The key figure given in the report is glaring – \"AIS systems underreport approximately 50% of actual passing vessels per day in the current environment\".</p><p>More importantly, he describes the Straits status quo as a state of \"dynamic enforcement\": the Straits are not well-suited to be generalized with the \"open/closed\" binary label, because the field rules change, and so do the enforcers. The report wrote that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) dominated the new rule of \"who can pass\" on the spot, and patrol boats and Shahed drones were frequently active, which brought fluctuation risks to the global oil and gas supply chain may be amplified at any time.</p><p><div><h2>How to fill in the information blank: \"counting ships\" on the spot has become the most direct way</h2></div>The Strait of Hormuz is like a \"master valve\" for global energy.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">U.S. Energy</a>The Information Agency (EIA) has long estimated that the Strait of Hormuz carries a considerable proportion of the world's maritime crude oil and refined oil flow (often quoted as about 20%), and any news of \"misjudgment\" will quickly be reflected in oil prices, freight rates and insurance rates.</p><p>The problem is that the tools commonly used in the market — public AIS, partial satellite imagery, scattered anonymous intelligence — each have their own blind spots. Citrini gave a very straightforward judgment in the report: \"When there is a huge information gap in the market about whether the strait is 'open or closed', the only way to go to the site and count ships is the most direct and effective way.\" This explains why the report is concerned: it provides scarce first-hand observations at the expense of extremely high personal risk.</p><p><div><h2>'High-stakes forensics' from Dubai to Musandem</h2></div>Citrini's expedition route was written in detail: Dubai → Fujairah oil port → Musandem province (Khasab) in Oman → attempt to enter the core waters of the strait by speedboat. The value of this path is that it links the whole chain of \"port-supply-border enforcement-sea passage\" to observe, rather than just staring at the stretch of water in the middle of the strait.</p><p>Nor was he carrying gear like a normal business trip: a Leica Zoom camera, recording glasses, an EPIRB distress beacon, about $15,000 in cash, and he mentioned bringing a spare cell phone (including a<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XIACY\">Millet</a>cell phones) as well as supplies such as Zyn. The report has an obvious on-the-spot tone, for example, he described the trip as \"like writing a research report into a waterproof bag\", ready to deal with seizures and emergencies.</p><p><div><h2>Key Discovery 1: AIS is \"half less\", and dark AIS and \"hidden corridor\" are filling in</h2></div>One of Citrini's biggest conclusions is a direct blow to AIS reliability. He wrote: \"The AIS system misreports about 50 percent of actual passing ships every day in the current environment, and the public data that the market relies on is no longer reliable.\" If AIS is analogized to navigational positioning on highways, it does show most vehicles, but when some vehicles are \"off-location\" or take small roads that are not marked by public maps, the screen looks empty.</p><p>At the scene, he observed more ships passing, especially the permitted channels that some ships chose to approach the Iranian coast, which he called \"hidden corridors\". Some of these vessels employ dark AIS (off signal) or do not rely entirely on public tracking systems. For trading and risk control, this means a practical problem: using public AIS to estimate \"whether the traffic has dropped sharply\" is likely to underestimate the real traffic, thus amplifying the panic or mismatch risk premium.</p><p>To prove this, BIMCO, a shipping industry organization, and some insurance and maritime notification channels (such as UKMTO's navigation safety notification system) have long reminded that in high-risk waters, whether AIS is turned on or not often obeys safety and avoidance strategies, and there are naturally deviations in public data. Citrini's contribution is that he quantifies this \"bias\" into a more impactful approximate proportion.</p><p><div><h2>Key finding two: IRGC-led 'dynamic enforcement', making the strait more like 'temporary traffic control'</h2></div>At the security and political level, the report emphasizes that the control logic of the Straits is changing. He wrote that the IRGC was on-site to develop and enforce new rules of passage, patrol boats were active with Shahed drones, and the strait was in a state of \"dynamic law enforcement\". To use a better understood metaphor, this is a bit like a key arterial road: the road is not blocked, but the traffic police set up temporary lanes, random inspections and release lists at any time, and the traffic experience and risk will fluctuate at the hourly level.</p><p>On sensitive issues, the report also leaves room for market understanding: some regional security professionals will think that tightening controls has its border security and deterrence needs; Shipping companies and traders are more concerned about the unpredictability caused by the temporary nature of rules, because what the supply chain fears most is not \"expensive\", but \"unsure when to get stuck\".</p><p><div><h2>Inspection, detention and \"signing a promise\": Why is this material expensive</h2></div>The most vivid part of the report happened at the border checkpoint in Oman. Citrini described being asked to sign a commitment to \"no photography, no journalism, no intelligence gathering\". He then took a GPS-free speedboat driven by a stranger. The report said that the speedboat was \"only 18 miles off the Iranian coast\" and even showed details of \"swimming and smoking cigars in the strait\" to illustrate how close he was to the real shipping channel and law enforcement.</p><p>The more dramatic part: He was intercepted, detained by the Oman Coast Guard, his phone confiscated, and notes and photos may have fallen into official hands. For readers, the significance of this kind of plot is not to hunt for curiosity, but to explain the fact that when data sources become more and more difficult and public information becomes more and more fragmented, the cost of first-hand observation is rising sharply, which will directly affect the information quality and pricing efficiency of the market.</p><p><div><h2>How should the market judge \"strait risk\" in the future?</h2></div>A common question is, what else can the market trust when public AIS is unreliable?</p><p>The more realistic answer: change \"single data source\" to \"multi-source puzzle\". Trading and risk control teams can cross-validate public AIS, commercial satellites (especially SAR, which is more night-and cloud-friendly), port handling and queuing data, insurance quotation changes, and official maritime notifications. Think of it as looking at the same intersection with multiple cameras. When one is blocked, the whole traffic flow can still be restored.</p><p>Another question is, how will this affect oil prices and shipping?</p><p>EIA and the International Energy Agency (IEA) and other institutions have repeatedly emphasized the importance of Hormuz. The risk premium often comes from the product of \"disruption probability × disruption impact\". Citrini's report boosts the market's understanding of the \"impact\" part: the strait is not showing a simple shutdown, the mode of passage is changing, the rules are more temporary, and the risks are more like \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600668\">spike</a>Pulse \". Such risks are usually more sensitive to the transmission of option volatility, freight and insurance surcharges than to spot transactions.</p><p><div><h2>Volatility comes from 'unpredictable temporary rules'</h2></div>Citrini is cautious about the future: IRGC-led field rules will make the Straits more prone to sudden friction, and fluctuations in the global oil supply chain may take on the characteristics of \"short, violent and difficult to verify\" more frequently. For markets, such environments reward participants who respond quickly and have more three-dimensional information sources.</p><p>His advice is also clear: Don't take the Straits as a switch, don't take the AIS as the truth. The reason why the phrase \"go to the site and count ships\" in the report is shocking is that it reminds the market that when the information gap is large enough, risk control and research need to be closer to the ground reality, even if the cost is high and the risk is high.</p><p>In short, the core point of the report is,<strong>The real traffic of the Strait of Hormuz may be significantly higher than that shown by public AIS. The strait order is characterized by dynamic law enforcement. Any information of \"misjudging opening and closing\" may amplify the fluctuations of global energy and shipping chains.</strong></p><p>On the one hand, the market may need to recalibrate the \"flow-risk premium\" mapping; On the other hand, data methodologies can be forced to escalate from relying on a single publicly available metric to more expensive but more robust multi-source validation. For the trading, shipping and industrial side, such changes will push the \"information advantage\" to a more central position.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/720622f3a00b611476f1d69c1f2cbf0d","relate_stocks":{"ARTY":"ISHARES FUTURE AI & TECH ETF","AIPO":"Defiance AI and Power Infrastructure ETF","CHAT":"ROUNDHILL GENERATIVE AI & TECHNOLOGY ETF","AGIX":"通用人工智能 ETF-AGIX"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3769308","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2625819624","content_text":"今日金融圈最“炸”的一份材料，来自一篇关于霍尔木兹海峡的一线实地报告。\n之前曾用一篇 AI “思想实验”报告《2028 年全球智能危机》在市场上掀起风暴、甚至把一批相关公司股价“打崩”的研究机构 Citrini Research，这次又抛出了一份重磅地缘材料。它在交易员、航运保险和能源研究圈里引发了不小的震动，原因很简单：当市场争论海峡“到底开没开、会不会突然关”时，这份报告直接把讨论拉回了现场。\n报告主角是 Citrini Research 的神秘的“3号分析师”。与常见的二手汇编不同，他选择亲自去海峡附近“数船”、看航道、和当地人及船员聊天，并记录下沿途遇到的检查、扣留与风险细节。很多读者看完的第一反应是：这更像战地侦察日志，不像办公室里做出来的宏观评论——也正是 Citrini 一贯“用细节把市场拉回现实”的那种冲击感。\n“3号分析师”在现场观察到，实际通过霍尔木兹海峡的船只数量明显高于公开 AIS 数据所呈现的水平，市场对真实流量存在系统性低估。报告给出的关键数字很刺眼——“AIS 系统在当前环境下每天大约漏报 50% 的实际过往船舶”。\n更重要的是，他把海峡现状描述为一种“动态执法”的状态：海峡不太适合用“开放/封闭”二元标签概括，因为现场规则在变，执行者也在变。报告写道，伊朗革命卫队（IRGC）在现场主导“谁能通过”的新规矩，巡逻艇与 Shahed 无人机活动频繁，给全球油气供应链带来的波动风险随时可能放大。\n\n信息空白怎么填：现场“数船”成了最直接的办法\n\n霍尔木兹海峡对全球能源像一段“总阀门”。美国能源信息署（EIA）长期估算，霍尔木兹海峡承载全球相当比例的海运原油与成品油流量（常被引用在约两成上下的量级），任何“误判开合”的消息都会迅速体现在油价、运价与保险费率上。\n问题在于，市场常用的工具——公开 AIS、部分卫星图、零散的匿名情报——各有盲区。Citrini 在报告里给了句很直白的判断：“当市场对海峡‘到底是开放还是封闭’存在巨大信息空白时，只有去现场数船才是最直接有效的途径。”这也解释了这份报告为什么会引发关注：它提供了稀缺的第一手观测，而代价是极高的个人风险。\n\n从迪拜到穆桑代姆的“高风险取证”\n\nCitrini 的考察路线被写得很细：迪拜 → 富查伊拉油港 → 阿曼穆桑代姆省（Khasab）→ 试图乘快艇进入海峡核心水域。这条路径的价值在于，它把“港口—补给—边境执法—海上通行”这一整套链条串起来观察，而不仅盯着海峡中线那一段水域。\n他携带的装备也不像普通出差：徕卡变焦相机、录音眼镜、EPIRB 求救信标、约 1.5 万美元现金，还提到带了备用手机（包括一部小米手机）以及 Zyn 等补给。报告里带有明显的现场口吻，比如他形容这趟行程“像把研究报告写进了防水袋里”，随时准备应对扣押与突发状况。\n\n关键发现一：AIS“少了一半”，暗 AIS 与“隐藏走廊”在补位\n\nCitrini 最重磅的结论之一，是对 AIS 可靠性的直接打击。他写道：“AIS 系统在当前环境下每天大约漏报 50% 的实际过往船舶，市场依赖的公开数据已不可靠。”如果把 AIS 类比成高速公路的导航定位，它确实能显示大多数车辆，但当一部分车“关定位”或走了不被公开地图标注的小路，屏幕上看起来就会空一大片。\n他在现场观察到更多船舶通行，尤其是一些船选择靠近伊朗海岸的许可通道，被他称作“隐藏走廊”。其中一部分船舶采用暗 AIS（关闭信号）或不完全依赖公开跟踪系统。对于交易与风控来说，这意味着一个现实问题：用公开 AIS 估算“流量是否锐减”，很可能把真实通行量低估，从而放大恐慌或错配风险溢价。\n为佐证这一点，航运行业机构 BIMCO、以及部分保险与海事通报渠道（例如 UKMTO 的航行安全通报体系）长期都提醒过：在高风险海域，AIS 的开启与否常常服从安全与规避策略，公开数据天然存在偏差。Citrini 的贡献在于，他把这种“偏差”量化成了一个更具冲击力的近似比例。\n\n关键发现二：IRGC 主导的“动态执法”，让海峡更像“临时交通管制”\n\n在安全与政治层面，报告强调海峡的控制逻辑正在变化。他写道，IRGC 在现场制定并执行新的通行规则，巡逻艇与 Shahed 无人机频繁活动，海峡处于“动态执法”状态。用更好理解的比喻来说，这有点像一条关键干道：路没有封死，但交警随时设置临时车道、抽检、放行名单，通行体验与风险会在小时级别波动。\n在敏感议题上，报告也给市场留出了理解空间：一部分地区安全人士会认为加强管制有其边境安全与威慑需求；航运公司与贸易商更关心的是规则临时性带来的不可预测性，因为供应链最怕的不是“贵”，而是“说不准什么时候卡住”。\n\n检查、扣留与“签承诺”：为什么说这份材料代价高\n\n报告里最具现场感的一段，发生在阿曼边境检查站。Citrini 描述自己被要求签署“不摄影、不从事新闻、不收集情报”的承诺。随后，他又搭乘陌生人驾驶的无 GPS 快艇，报告写道快艇“距离伊朗海岸仅 18 英里”，甚至出现“在海峡里游泳、抽雪茄”的细节，用来说明他离真实航道与执法力量有多近。\n更戏剧性的部分是：他被阿曼海岸警卫队拦截、扣留，手机被没收，笔记和照片可能已落入官方之手。对读者来说，这类情节的意义不在猎奇，而在解释一个事实：当数据源越来越难、公开信息越来越碎，第一手观察的成本正在急剧上升，这会直接影响市场的信息质量与定价效率。\n\n市场今后该怎么判断“海峡风险”？\n\n一个常见问题是，既然公开 AIS 不可靠，市场还能信什么？\n较现实的答案是：把“单一数据源”改成“多源拼图”。交易与风控团队可以把公开 AIS、商业卫星（尤其是 SAR 对夜间与云层更友好）、港口装卸与排队数据、保险报价变化、以及官方海事通报交叉验证。把它想成用多台摄像头看同一个路口，某一台被遮挡时，整体仍能还原车流大势。\n另一个问题是，这会怎样影响油价与航运？\nEIA 与国际能源署（IEA）等机构反复强调过霍尔木兹的重要性，风险溢价往往来自“中断概率×中断影响”的乘积。Citrini 的报告提升了市场对“影响”部分的理解：海峡并未呈现简单停摆，通行方式在变化，规则更临时，风险更像“尖峰脉冲”。这类风险对期权波动率、运费与保险附加费的传导，通常比对现货成交更敏感。\n\n波动来自“不可预测的临时规则”\n\nCitrini 对未来的判断偏谨慎：IRGC 主导的现场规则将使海峡更容易出现突发摩擦，全球石油供应链的波动可能更频繁地呈现“短促、剧烈、难验证”的特征。对市场而言，这类环境会奖励反应快与信息源更立体的参与者。\n他的建议也很明确：别把海峡当成开关，别把 AIS 当成真相。报告里那句“去现场数船”之所以震撼，是因为它提醒市场：当信息缺口足够大时，风控与研究需要更接近地面现实，哪怕代价高、风险大。\n总之报告的核心观点就是，霍尔木兹海峡的真实通行量可能显著高于公开 AIS 所示，海峡秩序呈现动态执法特征，任何“误判开合”的信息都可能放大全球能源与航运链条的波动。\n一方面，市场可能需要重新校准“流量—风险溢价”的映射；另一方面，数据方法论会被迫升级，从依赖单一公开指标，转向更昂贵但更稳健的多源验证。对交易、航运与产业端来说，这类变化会把“信息优势”推到更核心的位置。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AIPO":1.5,"AGIX":1.5,"CHAT":1.5,"ARTY":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":813,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":550282748190936,"gmtCreate":1775372040774,"gmtModify":1775373506229,"author":{"id":"4212352499387392","authorId":"4212352499387392","name":"Kierayu876","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/40147ad4b4fea60e7c16295a9be0a1f8","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4212352499387392","idStr":"4212352499387392"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow&nbsp;","listText":"Wow&nbsp;","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/550282748190936","repostId":"2625964592","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2625964592","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1775373347,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2625964592?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2026-04-05 15:15","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"AI computing power is fatally injured! Broadcom Director Names \"Three Bottlenecks\", Capacity Gap Fears to Last Until 2027","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2625964592","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"博通高管点名AI供应链三大核心瓶颈：激光器、先进制程晶圆及PCB。受制于技术门槛与产能挤压，小型PCB交货周期已暴增至六个月，激光器良率不足30%。即便台积电现大规模扩产，因设备交期达12至18个月、2026年产能实际已被大厂锁定，新订单需排队至2027年，算力缺口将趋于常态化。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Broadcom executives named three core bottlenecks in the AI supply chain: lasers, advanced process wafers and PCBs. Due to the technical threshold and production capacity squeeze, the delivery cycle of small PCB has soared to six months, and the laser yield is less than 30%. Even if TSMC is expanding production on a large scale, because the equipment delivery time is 12 to 18 months, and the production capacity has actually been locked by big manufacturers in 2026, new orders need to be queued until 2027, and the computing power gap will tend to be normalized.</p><p>The supply-side constraints of artificial intelligence computing infrastructure are spreading from chip manufacturing to optical components and advanced packaging materials.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">Broadcom</a>For the first time, executives named the three bottlenecks of AI supply chain, revealing that the real card point of this computing power arms race is far deeper than the market generally recognizes, and it is difficult to dissolve in the short term.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600455\">Broadcom</a>Natarajan Ramachandran, marketing director of entity layer products, pointed out at a media conference held in Taipei on March 24th that AI-related supply chains are currently facing three core bottlenecks:<strong>Laser capacity, wafer (esp.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>Advanced Process), and PCB (Paddle Card, Printed Circuit Board).</strong>Among them, lead times for small PCBs used inside high-speed optical transceivers have spiked from about six weeks to about six months, and are not expected to ease until 2027.</p><p>The direct significance of the above statement to the market is that the investment boom of AI infrastructure cannot automatically resolve the structural constraints on the supply side. From the yield of less than 30% under the rigorous laser test, to the sluggish unit output in the initial stage of TSMC's advanced packaging, and then to the switching certification cycle of PCB suppliers for more than six months-the superposition of multiple bottlenecks means that the computing power capacity gap is likely to continue in a structural way, and the price increase in the supply chain may tend to normalize.</p><p>Broadcom CEO Hock Tan also confirmed at the March earnings conference that Broadcom has locked in the supply of key components from 2026 to 2028 ahead of schedule, covering advanced process wafers, high bandwidth memory (HBM) and substrates. This advanced layout itself is a direct reflection of the current supply tightness.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_982905332\">PCB lead time skyrockets tenfold</h2>In the 800G/1.6T high-order optical transceiver module, the PCB connects the external cable to the internal<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600184\">photoelectric</a>Critical interfaces for components. This kind of small PCB usually adopts mSAP (improved semi-additive method) process due to its small space and extremely high-frequency signals. The technical threshold is much higher than that of ordinary PCB, and it is mainly supplied by manufacturers with high-order HDI or IC substrate technology.</p><p>The root of the bottleneck of PCB lies in the overlap of processes.<strong>There is a partial intersection between its mSAP process and the IC substrate process required by AI server. When the world snaps up HBM capacity, the capacity of small PCB is squeezed.</strong>At the same time, the 1.6T module has extremely strict requirements for signal quality, and the PCB must adopt ultra-low loss materials and precise impedance control, which cannot be undertaken by ordinary PCB manufacturers.</p><p>More critically, once a supplier is changed, the certification cycle is as long as more than six months. This is exactly what<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>Why ultra-large-scale cloud vendors prefer to sign three-to four-year long-term contracts and lock in the production capacity of existing suppliers.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_2649859146\">Laser: the yield rate is less than 30%, and indium phosphide production capacity becomes the core card point</h2>Laser components have become another major bottleneck in the CPO (co-packaged optics) era. In order to support the bandwidth of 1.6T or higher, the laser must keep the wavelength stable in the high temperature environment of the data center, and there are strict requirements for \"ultra-high power\" and \"extremely low noise\" continuous wave (CW) lasers.<strong>Even if the supplier can produce the laser die, after rigorous reliability testing, the yield that meets the high standards of CPO may be less than 30%.</strong></p><p>The constraints on the production capacity side are equally severe. High-power lasers rely on indium phosphide (InP) technology, and there are only a handful of manufacturers in the world with the capacity of mass production of 6-inch InP. If the orders of upstream InP epitaxial wafer manufacturers or manufacturers with their own production capacity such as Coherent and Lumentum are full, no matter how many packaging factories there are downstream, there will be no laser wafers available.</p><p>Deeper structural pressures come from the amplifying effect of the CPO architecture itself on laser demand. In a conventional optical module, one module is configured with one laser; In the CPO scheme, in order to reduce the thermal impact, the industry turned to the ELSFP (External Laser Light Source Module) architecture, which led to a linear relationship between the demand for laser chips and the number of switches, but an exponential increase, which directly impacted the already tight InP epitaxial capacity.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_1927327658\">Wafers and Advanced Packaging: The Real \"Super Big Traffic Jam\" in the Back Road</h2>In terms of wafer supply, Natarajan Ramachandran directly said that \"TSMC's production capacity has reached its limit\", and it is expected that TSMC's advanced process production line will form a bottleneck in 2026, although TSMC plans to continue to expand production until 2027.</p><p><strong>However, the real \"super big traffic jam\" occurs in the advanced packaging link in the back road.</strong>In the CPO era, TSMC must introduce COUPE (Compact General Purpose Photonic Engine) technology to stack optical chips and silicon chips in three dimensions through Hybrid Bonding. This new packaging technology is extremely difficult and the test cycle is extremely long, which makes it difficult to rapidly increase the initial unit output (UPH) of the equipment.</p><p>The competitive landscape further intensifies the pressure on production capacity. In 2026, Broadcom's capacity competitors will no longer be just traditional network communication vendors, but<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>And those who are investing heavily in self-developing ASIC chips<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Google</a>, Meta, OpenAI. When the top AI computing power chip and the highest 1.6T network switch pour into the same production line of TSMC at the same time, the production capacity has essentially entered the \"rationing system\".</p><p>Even if TSMC now decides to expand production on a large scale, plant construction, clean room completion, introduction<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML</a>The lead time of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment and various high-end test equipment is often 12 to 18 months.<strong>This means that the production capacity in 2026 has actually been locked in by major factories between 2024 and 2025-customers who only add orders now can only wait until 2027 to release new production capacity.</strong></p><p><h2 id=\"id_3949521928\">Full-chain spillover: second-tier suppliers lag behind in production expansion and bottleneck spreads</h2>Capacity pressure is spilling over throughout the supply chain. Advanced packaging is not just a matter for packaging factories. The links that are really easy to form stuck points include:<strong>CoWoS must be equipped with ABF substrate, Underfill necessary for advanced packaging, heat dissipation demand caused by AI power consumption explosion, KGD test and Burn-in test, CPO and optical module, and cutting and drilling of TSV and intermediate layer.</strong></p><p>Wei Zhejia, chairman of TSMC, once said that \"the production capacity of CoWoS is still insufficient\"-what he lacks is not funds, but the production capacity of supporting suppliers: carrier board factory, probe card manufacturer, bottom filler supplier, etc. TSMC can invest heavily in building factories, but it can't force these small and medium-sized suppliers to double their production capacity in the short term. It often takes two to three years to expand the production of ABF substrates, and the aging test time is extremely long. The alignment tolerance of optical fiber arrays is sub-micron level, and it is difficult to fully automate-every link is slowing down the overall rhythm.</p><p>As Nvidia continues to promote the hardware iteration of GPU architecture, supply chain bottlenecks and price increases may become structural norms rather than periodic disturbances. For investors, where the capacity card lies, it is where the pricing power is concentrated.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AI computing power is fatally injured! Broadcom Director Names \"Three Bottlenecks\", Capacity Gap Fears to Last Until 2027</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAI computing power is fatally injured! Broadcom Director Names \"Three Bottlenecks\", Capacity Gap Fears to Last Until 2027\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2026-04-05 15:15</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Broadcom executives named three core bottlenecks in the AI supply chain: lasers, advanced process wafers and PCBs. Due to the technical threshold and production capacity squeeze, the delivery cycle of small PCB has soared to six months, and the laser yield is less than 30%. Even if TSMC is expanding production on a large scale, because the equipment delivery time is 12 to 18 months, and the production capacity has actually been locked by big manufacturers in 2026, new orders need to be queued until 2027, and the computing power gap will tend to be normalized.</p><p>The supply-side constraints of artificial intelligence computing infrastructure are spreading from chip manufacturing to optical components and advanced packaging materials.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">Broadcom</a>For the first time, executives named the three bottlenecks of AI supply chain, revealing that the real card point of this computing power arms race is far deeper than the market generally recognizes, and it is difficult to dissolve in the short term.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600455\">Broadcom</a>Natarajan Ramachandran, marketing director of entity layer products, pointed out at a media conference held in Taipei on March 24th that AI-related supply chains are currently facing three core bottlenecks:<strong>Laser capacity, wafer (esp.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>Advanced Process), and PCB (Paddle Card, Printed Circuit Board).</strong>Among them, lead times for small PCBs used inside high-speed optical transceivers have spiked from about six weeks to about six months, and are not expected to ease until 2027.</p><p>The direct significance of the above statement to the market is that the investment boom of AI infrastructure cannot automatically resolve the structural constraints on the supply side. From the yield of less than 30% under the rigorous laser test, to the sluggish unit output in the initial stage of TSMC's advanced packaging, and then to the switching certification cycle of PCB suppliers for more than six months-the superposition of multiple bottlenecks means that the computing power capacity gap is likely to continue in a structural way, and the price increase in the supply chain may tend to normalize.</p><p>Broadcom CEO Hock Tan also confirmed at the March earnings conference that Broadcom has locked in the supply of key components from 2026 to 2028 ahead of schedule, covering advanced process wafers, high bandwidth memory (HBM) and substrates. This advanced layout itself is a direct reflection of the current supply tightness.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_982905332\">PCB lead time skyrockets tenfold</h2>In the 800G/1.6T high-order optical transceiver module, the PCB connects the external cable to the internal<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600184\">photoelectric</a>Critical interfaces for components. This kind of small PCB usually adopts mSAP (improved semi-additive method) process due to its small space and extremely high-frequency signals. The technical threshold is much higher than that of ordinary PCB, and it is mainly supplied by manufacturers with high-order HDI or IC substrate technology.</p><p>The root of the bottleneck of PCB lies in the overlap of processes.<strong>There is a partial intersection between its mSAP process and the IC substrate process required by AI server. When the world snaps up HBM capacity, the capacity of small PCB is squeezed.</strong>At the same time, the 1.6T module has extremely strict requirements for signal quality, and the PCB must adopt ultra-low loss materials and precise impedance control, which cannot be undertaken by ordinary PCB manufacturers.</p><p>More critically, once a supplier is changed, the certification cycle is as long as more than six months. This is exactly what<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Google</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>Why ultra-large-scale cloud vendors prefer to sign three-to four-year long-term contracts and lock in the production capacity of existing suppliers.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_2649859146\">Laser: the yield rate is less than 30%, and indium phosphide production capacity becomes the core card point</h2>Laser components have become another major bottleneck in the CPO (co-packaged optics) era. In order to support the bandwidth of 1.6T or higher, the laser must keep the wavelength stable in the high temperature environment of the data center, and there are strict requirements for \"ultra-high power\" and \"extremely low noise\" continuous wave (CW) lasers.<strong>Even if the supplier can produce the laser die, after rigorous reliability testing, the yield that meets the high standards of CPO may be less than 30%.</strong></p><p>The constraints on the production capacity side are equally severe. High-power lasers rely on indium phosphide (InP) technology, and there are only a handful of manufacturers in the world with the capacity of mass production of 6-inch InP. If the orders of upstream InP epitaxial wafer manufacturers or manufacturers with their own production capacity such as Coherent and Lumentum are full, no matter how many packaging factories there are downstream, there will be no laser wafers available.</p><p>Deeper structural pressures come from the amplifying effect of the CPO architecture itself on laser demand. In a conventional optical module, one module is configured with one laser; In the CPO scheme, in order to reduce the thermal impact, the industry turned to the ELSFP (External Laser Light Source Module) architecture, which led to a linear relationship between the demand for laser chips and the number of switches, but an exponential increase, which directly impacted the already tight InP epitaxial capacity.</p><p><h2 id=\"id_1927327658\">Wafers and Advanced Packaging: The Real \"Super Big Traffic Jam\" in the Back Road</h2>In terms of wafer supply, Natarajan Ramachandran directly said that \"TSMC's production capacity has reached its limit\", and it is expected that TSMC's advanced process production line will form a bottleneck in 2026, although TSMC plans to continue to expand production until 2027.</p><p><strong>However, the real \"super big traffic jam\" occurs in the advanced packaging link in the back road.</strong>In the CPO era, TSMC must introduce COUPE (Compact General Purpose Photonic Engine) technology to stack optical chips and silicon chips in three dimensions through Hybrid Bonding. This new packaging technology is extremely difficult and the test cycle is extremely long, which makes it difficult to rapidly increase the initial unit output (UPH) of the equipment.</p><p>The competitive landscape further intensifies the pressure on production capacity. In 2026, Broadcom's capacity competitors will no longer be just traditional network communication vendors, but<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>And those who are investing heavily in self-developing ASIC chips<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">Google</a>, Meta, OpenAI. When the top AI computing power chip and the highest 1.6T network switch pour into the same production line of TSMC at the same time, the production capacity has essentially entered the \"rationing system\".</p><p>Even if TSMC now decides to expand production on a large scale, plant construction, clean room completion, introduction<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML</a>The lead time of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment and various high-end test equipment is often 12 to 18 months.<strong>This means that the production capacity in 2026 has actually been locked in by major factories between 2024 and 2025-customers who only add orders now can only wait until 2027 to release new production capacity.</strong></p><p><h2 id=\"id_3949521928\">Full-chain spillover: second-tier suppliers lag behind in production expansion and bottleneck spreads</h2>Capacity pressure is spilling over throughout the supply chain. Advanced packaging is not just a matter for packaging factories. The links that are really easy to form stuck points include:<strong>CoWoS must be equipped with ABF substrate, Underfill necessary for advanced packaging, heat dissipation demand caused by AI power consumption explosion, KGD test and Burn-in test, CPO and optical module, and cutting and drilling of TSV and intermediate layer.</strong></p><p>Wei Zhejia, chairman of TSMC, once said that \"the production capacity of CoWoS is still insufficient\"-what he lacks is not funds, but the production capacity of supporting suppliers: carrier board factory, probe card manufacturer, bottom filler supplier, etc. TSMC can invest heavily in building factories, but it can't force these small and medium-sized suppliers to double their production capacity in the short term. It often takes two to three years to expand the production of ABF substrates, and the aging test time is extremely long. The alignment tolerance of optical fiber arrays is sub-micron level, and it is difficult to fully automate-every link is slowing down the overall rhythm.</p><p>As Nvidia continues to promote the hardware iteration of GPU architecture, supply chain bottlenecks and price increases may become structural norms rather than periodic disturbances. For investors, where the capacity card lies, it is where the pricing power is concentrated.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03e38a3a3c63bd5a9d8d8ca2d384d1c5","relate_stocks":{"LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU1301847155.USD":"BGF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME FUND \"A4G\" (USD) INC","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU2133065610.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Dividend A (mth) SGD","IE00B19Z9Z06.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Aggressive Growth A Acc USD","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU0154236417.USD":"BGF US FLEXIBLE EQUITY \"A2\" ACC","LU2286300806.USD":"Allianz Cyber Security AT Acc USD","LU1064131342.USD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc USD","LU0080751232.USD":"富达环球多元动力基金A","LU2125154778.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","SG9999011175.SGD":"Nikko AM Global Dividend Equity Dis SGD-H","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","IE00BMPRXQ63.HKD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION CONNECTIVITY FUND \"A\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU1244550577.SGD":"FTIF - 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VL \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1232071149.USD":"AZ FUND 1 GLOBAL GROWTH SELECTOR \"AAZ\" (USDHDG) ACC","IE00BZ9MQY76.HKD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US AGGRESSIVE GROWTH \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1674673691.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (USD) INC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3769285","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2625964592","content_text":"博通高管点名AI供应链三大核心瓶颈：激光器、先进制程晶圆及PCB。受制于技术门槛与产能挤压，小型PCB交货周期已暴增至六个月，激光器良率不足30%。即便台积电现大规模扩产，因设备交期达12至18个月、2026年产能实际已被大厂锁定，新订单需排队至2027年，算力缺口将趋于常态化。人工智能算力基础设施的供给侧约束，正从芯片前道制造向光学元件与先进封装材料全面蔓延。博通高管首度点名AI供应链三大瓶颈，揭示这场算力军备竞赛的真正卡点远比市场普遍认知的更为深层，且短期内难以消解。博通实体层产品营销总监 Natarajan Ramachandran 于3月24日在台北举行的媒体见面会上指出，AI相关供应链当前面临三大核心瓶颈：激光器产能、晶圆（特指台积电先进制程），以及PCB（Paddle Card，印刷电路板）。其中，用于高速光收发器内部的小型PCB交货周期已从约六周骤增至约六个月，预计要到2027年才能缓解。上述表态对市场的直接意义在于：AI基础设施的投资热潮并不能自动化解供给侧的结构性约束。从激光器严苛测试下良率不足30%，到台积电先进封装初期单位产出低迷，再到PCB供应商切换认证周期长达六个月以上——多重瓶颈相互叠加，意味着算力产能缺口极可能以结构性方式延续，供应链涨价或将趋于常态化。博通首席执行官 Hock Tan 在3月财报会议上亦确认，博通已提前锁定2026年至2028年关键组件的供应，涵盖先进制程晶圆、高带宽内存（HBM）及基板。这一超前布局本身，正是当前供应紧张程度的直接写照。PCB交货周期暴涨十倍在800G/1.6T高阶光收发模组中，PCB是连接外部线缆与内部光电元件的关键接口。这类小型PCB由于空间极小且须处理极高频信号，通常采用mSAP（改良型半加成法）工艺，技术门槛远高于普通PCB，主要由具备高阶HDI或IC基板技术的厂商供应。PCB沦为瓶颈的根源在于工艺重叠。其mSAP制程与AI服务器所需的IC基板制程存在部分交集，当全球抢购HBM产能时，小型PCB的产能随之遭到挤压。与此同时，1.6T模组对信号品质要求极为严苛，PCB须采用超低损耗材料与精密阻抗控制，并非一般PCB厂商所能承接。更关键的是，一旦更换供应商，认证周期长达六个月以上。这正是谷歌、Meta等超大规模云厂商宁愿签订三至四年长期合约、也要锁定既有供应商产能的原因。激光器：良率不足三成，磷化铟产能成核心卡点激光器元件已成为CPO（共封装光学）时代的另一重大瓶颈。为支撑1.6T乃至更高带宽，激光器须在数据中心高温环境下保持波长稳定，对\"超高功率\"且\"极低噪声\"的连续波（CW）激光有严苛要求。即便供应商能够产出激光晶粒，经严苛可靠性测试后，符合CPO高标准要求的良率可能不足30%。产能端的约束同样严峻。高功率激光器依赖磷化铟（InP）技术，而全球具备6英寸InP大规模量产能力的厂商屈指可数。若上游InP外延片厂商或 Coherent、Lumentum 等拥有自有产能的厂商订单爆满，下游无论有多少封装厂，均无激光晶粒可用。更深层的结构性压力来自CPO架构本身对激光器需求的放大效应。在传统光模组中，一个模组配置一个激光器；而在CPO方案中，为降低热影响，业界转向使用ELSFP（外部激光光源模组）架构，导致激光晶粒需求量与交换机数量之间不再是线性关系，而是成倍数增长，直接冲击原本就已紧张的InP外延产能。晶圆与先进封装：真正的\"超级大堵车\"在后道在晶圆供应方面，Natarajan Ramachandran直接表示\"台积电产能达到极限\"，预计台积电先进制程产线将在2026年形成瓶颈，尽管台积电计划持续扩产至2027年。然而，真正的\"超级大堵车\"发生在后道先进封装环节。进入CPO时代，台积电须导入COUPE（紧凑型通用光子引擎）技术，通过混合键合（Hybrid Bonding）将光学芯片与硅芯片进行立体堆叠。这种全新封装技术难度极高、测试周期极长，导致设备初期单位产出（UPH）难以快速提升。竞争格局进一步加剧了产能压力。2026年，博通面对的产能竞争对手不再只是传统网络通信厂商，而是英伟达、苹果、AMD、高通，以及正在重金自研ASIC芯片的谷歌、Meta、OpenAI。当最顶尖的AI算力芯片与最高阶的1.6T网络交换器同时涌入台积电同一条产线，产能实质上已进入\"配给制\"。即便台积电现在决定大规模扩产，厂房建设、无尘室竣工、引入ASML极紫外光（EUV）光刻设备及各类高端测试设备的交货周期动辄十二至十八个月。这意味着2026年的产能，实际上在2024至2025年间便已被各大厂锁定——现在才追加订单的客户，只能等到2027年新产能释放。全链条外溢：二线供应商扩产滞后，瓶颈蔓延产能压力正向整个供应链外溢。先进封装并不仅仅是封装厂的事，真正容易形成卡点的环节包括：CoWoS必须配套的ABF基板、先进封装必备的底部填充胶（Underfill）、AI功耗爆炸带来的散热需求、KGD测试与老化测试（Burn-in）、CPO与光模组，以及TSV和中介层的切割与钻孔等。台积电董事长魏哲家曾表示\"CoWoS产能仍然不够\"——他缺乏的并非资金，而是配套供应商的产能：载板厂、探针卡厂商、底部填充胶供应商等。台积电可以投入巨资建设厂房，却无法迫使这些中小供应商在短期内将产能翻倍。ABF基板扩产动辄需要两至三年，老化测试时间极长，光纤阵列对位容差在次微米级、难以完全自动化——每一个环节都在拖慢整体节奏。随着英伟达持续推进GPU架构的硬件迭代，供应链瓶颈与涨价问题或将成为结构性常态而非周期性扰动。对投资者而言，产能卡点所在，正是定价权集中之处。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AVGU":0.6,"AVGX":0.6,"AVGW":0.6,"AVS":0.6,"AVGO":1.95,"AVGG":0.6,"AVL":0.6,"TSM":1.87}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":915,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}]}